Premier League · resolved market
Birmingham City FC vs. Middlesbrough FC: O/U 4.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x953b141594d8c2b18115626c1c9a03c62dbe25bebf860eba6763b2591d61a3fd
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Underof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Premier Leagueevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $10,616
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $10,592
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $10,616 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 22 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Premier League is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Premier League | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Under | 77c | 4,688$3,589 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,099.56 | 6,117 | 45.8%2,803 W · 3,314 L | -28.6wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x160b…4296backed Over | 13c | 3,845$500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$499.87 | 857 | 48.5%416 W · 441 L | +13.7wins | +0.02per pick | 47cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x258f…4493backed Over | 30c | 1,467$444 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$443.79 | 30 | 10%3 W · 27 L | -4.0wins | -0.13per pick | 23cpaid | -57.3%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x9dea…3792backed Over | 62c | 920.94$573 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$573.18 | 167 | 53.3%89 W · 78 L | -13.3wins | -0.08per pick | 61cpaid | -14.1%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x7462…3ac3backed Under | 63c | 637.84$402 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$236 | 5 | 80%4 W · 1 L | +0.9wins | +0.18per pick | 62cpaid | +27.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x73e6…5cb1backed Under | 64c | 550$352 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$198 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.14per pick | 64cpaid | -21.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdbdd…a5debacked Under | 75c | 505.13$379 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$126.43 | 742 | 56.9%422 W · 320 L | +46.5wins | +0.06per pick | 51cpaid | +11.1%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x478a…2deabacked Under | 63c | 300$189 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$111 | 49 | 75.5%37 W · 12 L | +8.3wins | +0.17per pick | 59cpaid | +29.9%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x21f5…035cbacked Over | 33c | 287.89$95 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$95 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | +0.5wins | +0.08per pick | 25cpaid | +46.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa710…f1ccbacked Over | 16c | 250$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 353 | 28.6%101 W · 252 L | -6.1wins | -0.02per pick | 30cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x462a…45f0backed Over | 21c | 238.1$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 11 | 18.2%2 W · 9 L | -2.2wins | -0.20per pick | 38cpaid | -61.8%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Under | 53c | 233.55$124 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$109.35 | 4,768 | 41.8%1,993 W · 2,775 L | +28.2wins | +0.01per pick | 41cpaid | -14.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x507e…beaebacked Under | 40c | 136.24$55 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$81.57 | 2,212 | 49.3%1,091 W · 1,121 L | -9.3wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9cf7…e5a5backed Over | 39c | 123.08$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48 | 167 | 31.7%53 W · 114 L | -18.5wins | -0.11per pick | 43cpaid | -26.6%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xf588…2b81backed Over | 16c | 108.48$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.44 | 469 | 43.5%204 W · 265 L | +4.6wins | +0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -16%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6340…1bd0backed Over | 14c | 100$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 192 | 35.9%69 W · 123 L | +2.3wins | +0.01per pick | 35cpaid | -2.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xda35…b894backed Over | 54c | 92.9$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 60 | 45%27 W · 33 L | -6.5wins | -0.11per pick | 56cpaid | -14.9%equal weight | 42-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x9075…cfe8backed Over | 67c | 89.55$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 257 | 50.2%129 W · 128 L | -2.1wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5aad…4d6ebacked Over | 61c | 81.97$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 93 | 39.8%37 W · 56 L | -8.1wins | -0.09per pick | 48cpaid | -16.6%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x2c93…0fb8backed Under | 66c | 44.07$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.96 | 131 | 52.7%69 W · 62 L | -4.5wins | -0.03per pick | 56cpaid | -9.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5d9e…e0e3backed Over | 35c | 43.14$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.99 | 317 | 47.6%151 W · 166 L | -14.7wins | -0.05per pick | 52cpaid | -13.9%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0a76…b30fbacked Over | 40c | 25$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 64 | 37.5%24 W · 40 L | -4.4wins | -0.07per pick | 44cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Premier League and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 9 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Birmingham City FC vs. Middlesbrough FC: O/U 4.5this page
- Birmingham City FC vs. Middlesbrough FC: Both Teams to ScoreYes won
- Birmingham City FC vs. Middlesbrough FC: O/U 1.5Over won
- Birmingham City FC vs. Middlesbrough FC: O/U 2.5Over won
- Birmingham City FC vs. Middlesbrough FC: O/U 3.5Over won
- Spread: Birmingham City FC (-1.5)Middlesbrough FC won
- Spread: Birmingham City FC (-2.5)Middlesbrough FC won
- Spread: Middlesbrough FC (-1.5)Middlesbrough FC won
- Spread: Middlesbrough FC (-2.5)Birmingham City FC won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.