Dota2 · resolved market
Dota 2: PARIVISION vs Natus Vincere - Game 1 Winner
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x9553f9cc427274a063fc9cc9d3403bc4b32d0c35b71f55fbbd7bb50f0631da7c
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- PARIVISIONof PARIVISION, Natus Vincere
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Dota2every record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $11,631
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $13,154
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $11,631 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 28 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Dota2 is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Dota2 | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x06c0…e618backed PARIVISION | 68c | 2,600$1,768 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$832 | 57 | 61.4%35 W · 22 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5a28…41edbacked Natus Vincere | 32c | 2,000$640 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$640 | 213 | 50.7%108 W · 105 L | +5.5wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked PARIVISION | 78c | 1,666$1,299 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$366.69 | 738 | 41.7%308 W · 430 L | -5.2wins | -0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc29d…3352backed PARIVISION | 80c | 1,366$1,087 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$278.1 | 24 | 50%12 W · 12 L | -2.2wins | -0.09per pick | 59cpaid | -16.6%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xec98…afcdbacked Natus Vincere | 21c | 969.5$203 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$203.17 | 1,821 | 45%820 W · 1,001 L | +33.5wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd06c…cdafbacked Natus Vincere | 26c | 936.95$240 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$240 | 1,186 | 43.2%512 W · 674 L | +42.2wins | +0.04per pick | 40cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3db3…932fbacked Natus Vincere | 26c | 779.63$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 161 | 49.7%80 W · 81 L | -4.7wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -9.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xba05…f8c0backed Natus Vincere | 32c | 600$192 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$192 | 491 | 33.6%165 W · 326 L | +1.9wins | 0.00per pick | 33cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb6ce…7a7dbacked Natus Vincere | 20c | 448.77$91 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$90.99 | 897 | 49.6%445 W · 452 L | +22.4wins | +0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1f04…5fc4backed PARIVISION | 72c | 447.9$322 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$125.41 | 315 | 45.4%143 W · 172 L | -19.2wins | -0.06per pick | 51cpaid | -13.9%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x8e47…3d20backed PARIVISION | 77c | 423.73$326 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$97.73 | 40 | 65%26 W · 14 L | +3.0wins | +0.08per pick | 57cpaid | +12.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6d58…8accbacked PARIVISION | 76c | 400$305 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$95 | 128 | 62.5%80 W · 48 L | -4.7wins | -0.04per pick | 66cpaid | -8.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x593c…4b27backed Natus Vincere | 11c | 280.67$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 9 | 55.6%5 W · 4 L | +1.0wins | +0.11per pick | 44cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5c27…6964backed PARIVISION | 79c | 126.58$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.58 | 15 | 13.3%2 W · 13 L | -5.4wins | -0.36per pick | 49cpaid | -81.8%equal weight | 35-0.13 edge/pick |
| 0xb3b6…1765backed PARIVISION | 80c | 123.27$99 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.65 | 92 | 44.6%41 W · 51 L | -5.1wins | -0.06per pick | 50cpaid | -21.6%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x073a…6f98backed Natus Vincere | 24c | 115.3$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.23 | 203 | 61.6%125 W · 78 L | +22.0wins | +0.11per pick | 51cpaid | +12%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xf060…b07abacked Natus Vincere | 34c | 103.92$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.41 | 15 | 20%3 W · 12 L | -2.4wins | -0.16per pick | 36cpaid | -48.8%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x6684…95d1backed Natus Vincere | 30c | 100$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 50 | 62%31 W · 19 L | +1.2wins | +0.02per pick | 60cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6dc0…699abacked Natus Vincere | 22c | 100$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22 | 641 | 23.4%150 W · 491 L | -18.6wins | -0.03per pick | 26cpaid | -22.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdbdd…a5debacked PARIVISION | 70c | 100$70 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30 | 1,901 | 47.6%905 W · 996 L | +4.6wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x02a4…6854backed PARIVISION | 73c | 100$73 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27 | 1,797 | 55.8%1,003 W · 794 L | +37.5wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x309d…3a8abacked Natus Vincere | 34c | 81$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.54 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 34cpaid | -34.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe83b…8459backed PARIVISION | 77c | 57.99$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.22 | 34 | 58.8%20 W · 14 L | +1.6wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xca81…f2abbacked PARIVISION | 69c | 50$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.5 | 87 | 48.3%42 W · 45 L | +3.5wins | +0.04per pick | 44cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6365…df4ebacked Natus Vincere | 37c | 40.54$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 225 | 38.7%87 W · 138 L | +1.3wins | +0.01per pick | 38cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x05ba…2117backed PARIVISION | 66c | 24$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.16 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.05per pick | 55cpaid | -24.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x07a4…be3abacked PARIVISION | 66c | 24$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.16 | 5 | 80%4 W · 1 L | +0.5wins | +0.11per pick | 69cpaid | +11.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xddf6…9bd5backed PARIVISION | 66c | 18$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.12 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.08per pick | 58cpaid | -24.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Dota2 and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Dota 2: PARIVISION vs Natus Vincere - Game 1 Winnerthis page
- Dota 2: PARIVISION vs Natus Vincere (BO3)PARIVISION won
- Dota 2: PARIVISION vs Natus Vincere - Game 2 WinnerPARIVISION won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.