Dota2 · resolved market
Dota 2: PARIVISION vs Natus Vincere (BO3)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xbe027ff7905b6784ac8b780732991e897b3612ad1159c9a0a59e0fbe65dfb87b
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- PARIVISIONof PARIVISION, Natus Vincere
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Dota2every record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $22,182
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $24,522
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $22,182 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 59 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Dota2 is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Dota2 | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x1448…9b9cbacked PARIVISION | 73c | 7,040$5,139 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,901.1 | 132 | 62.9%83 W · 49 L | +4.0wins | +0.03per pick | 60cpaid | +5.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5a28…41edbacked Natus Vincere | 27c | 4,350$1,167 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,167.5 | 213 | 50.7%108 W · 105 L | +5.5wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcccc…dbddbacked Natus Vincere | 27c | 3,328$899 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$898.58 | 199 | 43.2%86 W · 113 L | -3.2wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x593c…4b27backed Natus Vincere | 4c | 1,611$69 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$68.9 | 9 | 55.6%5 W · 4 L | +1.0wins | +0.11per pick | 44cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked PARIVISION | 78c | 775.4$602 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$173.57 | 738 | 41.7%308 W · 430 L | -5.2wins | -0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x827a…8a2bbacked PARIVISION | 74c | 632.65$468 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$164.41 | 80 | 46.3%37 W · 43 L | -3.9wins | -0.05per pick | 51cpaid | -7.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xba05…f8c0backed Natus Vincere | 30c | 600.08$180 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$179.88 | 491 | 33.6%165 W · 326 L | +1.9wins | 0.00per pick | 33cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xaeb5…58e2backed Natus Vincere | 22c | 600$131 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$130.53 | 206 | 42.2%87 W · 119 L | -0.9wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbd1e…ff14backed PARIVISION | 70c | 586$410 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$175.8 | 112 | 53.6%60 W · 52 L | -1.9wins | -0.02per pick | 55cpaid | +2%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe42b…7ea9backed Natus Vincere | 26c | 449.96$117 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$116.99 | 465 | 35.1%163 W · 302 L | +22.9wins | +0.05per pick | 30cpaid | +18.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd397…5052backed PARIVISION | 75c | 400$300 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$100 | 234 | 65%152 W · 82 L | -1.0wins | 0.00per pick | 65cpaid | -0.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x95a5…a523backed Natus Vincere | 30c | 338.09$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 30 | 40%12 W · 18 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 39cpaid | +11.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6cc1…ca19backed PARIVISION | 75c | 320.69$242 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$78.69 | 15 | 66.7%10 W · 5 L | +1.5wins | +0.10per pick | 57cpaid | +11.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5aa9…febebacked Natus Vincere | 27c | 310$84 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$83.7 | 301 | 38.9%117 W · 184 L | -20.3wins | -0.07per pick | 46cpaid | -32.3%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x730e…fca0backed PARIVISION | 73c | 268.04$196 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$72.37 | 205 | 35.1%72 W · 133 L | -1.7wins | -0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -21%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x13fa…3facbacked Natus Vincere | 14c | 251.99$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.04 | 399 | 36.8%147 W · 252 L | +4.9wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | +6.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0341…a679backed Natus Vincere | 27c | 225.93$61 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$61 | 81 | 55.6%45 W · 36 L | +8.2wins | +0.10per pick | 45cpaid | +37.8%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x2652…2a1dbacked PARIVISION | 78c | 216.22$168 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48.12 | 869 | 49%426 W · 443 L | -3.5wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -15%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8e5f…7fbfbacked PARIVISION | 72c | 200.15$144 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$56.04 | 44 | 65.9%29 W · 15 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 65cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd17d…d0eebacked PARIVISION | 73c | 200$146 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$54 | 192 | 46.4%89 W · 103 L | -6.4wins | -0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -10.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2a8c…fd3dbacked Natus Vincere | 28c | 198.57$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55 | 485 | 39.2%190 W · 295 L | -8.4wins | -0.02per pick | 41cpaid | -10.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbd09…a188backed PARIVISION | 71c | 177.55$127 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50.76 | 184 | 52.2%96 W · 88 L | +8.2wins | +0.04per pick | 48cpaid | +13.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xeea6…135fbacked Natus Vincere | 30c | 166.67$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 61 | 42.6%26 W · 35 L | +0.6wins | +0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -9.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc9b5…6d52backed Natus Vincere | 7c | 156.95$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.35 | 41 | 46.3%19 W · 22 L | -3.7wins | -0.09per pick | 55cpaid | -24.7%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x0f8e…3082backed Natus Vincere | 20c | 151$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.28 | 168 | 35.7%60 W · 108 L | -7.2wins | -0.04per pick | 40cpaid | -27.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0d8d…9693backed Natus Vincere | 34c | 149.06$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.7wins | -0.14per pick | 54cpaid | -14.1%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb9be…8b35backed Natus Vincere | 34c | 146.38$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 83 | 49.4%41 W · 42 L | -1.1wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x728a…df69backed Natus Vincere | 28c | 142.86$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 34 | 29.4%10 W · 24 L | -2.9wins | -0.09per pick | 38cpaid | -9%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe99e…0084backed Natus Vincere | 28c | 142.27$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 876 | 45.7%400 W · 476 L | -4.7wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcc36…1b11backed Natus Vincere | 22c | 139.99$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.8 | 29 | 17.2%5 W · 24 L | -4.6wins | -0.16per pick | 33cpaid | -24%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xbaed…9372backed PARIVISION | 73c | 131.03$96 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.38 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.2wins | +0.04per pick | 56cpaid | +16.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x06a9…1a49backed Natus Vincere | 20c | 102$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 21 | 42.9%9 W · 12 L | -3.0wins | -0.15per pick | 57cpaid | -29.2%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x60a8…c08bbacked Natus Vincere | 27c | 100$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.0wins | -0.34per pick | 34cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x073a…6f98backed Natus Vincere | 26c | 100$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.5 | 203 | 61.6%125 W · 78 L | +22.0wins | +0.11per pick | 51cpaid | +12%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x497e…1161backed Natus Vincere | 15c | 82.07$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.31 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.15per pick | 15cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x795f…1871backed Natus Vincere | 20c | 81.56$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.22 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.9wins | +0.23per pick | 52cpaid | +21.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xec98…afcdbacked PARIVISION | 65c | 64.3$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.51 | 1,821 | 45%820 W · 1,001 L | +33.5wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x92ab…2b99backed Natus Vincere | 22c | 61.22$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.42 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | +0.2wins | +0.03per pick | 40cpaid | -23.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2294…4cd3backed PARIVISION | 73c | 60$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.2 | 11 | 54.5%6 W · 5 L | +0.4wins | +0.04per pick | 51cpaid | +32.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8c61…470fbacked Natus Vincere | 27c | 57.8$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.4 | 95 | 44.2%42 W · 53 L | -2.6wins | -0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -16.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x73da…8c9bbacked PARIVISION | 74c | 54$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.04 | 34 | 70.6%24 W · 10 L | +4.5wins | +0.13per pick | 57cpaid | +18.7%equal weight | 58+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xa00f…8e56backed Natus Vincere | 27c | 53$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.31 | 37 | 35.1%13 W · 24 L | -2.7wins | -0.07per pick | 42cpaid | -35.5%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x37bb…c71fbacked Natus Vincere | 28c | 52$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.56 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | -1.1wins | -0.16per pick | 44cpaid | -19.1%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9718…dd82backed Natus Vincere | 29c | 51$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 86 | 36%31 W · 55 L | -7.7wins | -0.09per pick | 45cpaid | -24.6%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xddd7…1596backed PARIVISION | 71c | 50$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.5 | 51 | 45.1%23 W · 28 L | -1.9wins | -0.04per pick | 49cpaid | -1.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9b4f…ce1fbacked PARIVISION | 73c | 50$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.5 | 27 | 51.9%14 W · 13 L | +1.5wins | +0.05per pick | 46cpaid | +7.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x02a4…6854backed PARIVISION | 73c | 50$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.5 | 1,797 | 55.8%1,003 W · 794 L | +37.5wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9158…ba55backed PARIVISION | 72c | 46.71$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.08 | 50 | 52%26 W · 24 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7a29…c0b6backed PARIVISION | 74c | 40.54$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.54 | 57 | 77.2%44 W · 13 L | +4.4wins | +0.08per pick | 69cpaid | +11.6%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xcb6b…604ebacked PARIVISION | 65c | 40$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14 | 393 | 51.1%201 W · 192 L | +7.9wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfd96…e623backed PARIVISION | 74c | 39.99$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.4 | 50 | 44%22 W · 28 L | -2.1wins | -0.04per pick | 48cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9224…b43bbacked PARIVISION | 66c | 30$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.2 | 169 | 42.6%72 W · 97 L | -5.9wins | -0.04per pick | 46cpaid | -7.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9904…c9b1backed PARIVISION | 74c | 27.03$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.03 | 45 | 77.8%35 W · 10 L | +4.5wins | +0.10per pick | 68cpaid | +15.4%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x74f4…d0f6backed PARIVISION | 74c | 27.03$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.03 | 19 | 78.9%15 W · 4 L | +1.8wins | +0.09per pick | 70cpaid | +12.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0d27…bd5abacked PARIVISION | 69c | 26.76$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.29 | 468 | 72.2%338 W · 130 L | +36.5wins | +0.08per pick | 64cpaid | +11.5%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x10ec…0c19backed PARIVISION | 72c | 20.83$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.83 | 35 | 74.3%26 W · 9 L | +2.7wins | +0.08per pick | 67cpaid | +9.5%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x96ae…89d9backed PARIVISION | 72c | 18$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.04 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +0.5wins | +0.09per pick | 58cpaid | +17.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6987…6956backed PARIVISION | 71c | 15$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.35 | 28 | 50%14 W · 14 L | -1.3wins | -0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x07eb…4b4cbacked PARIVISION | 72c | 15$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.2 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -1.0wins | -0.33per pick | 67cpaid | -53.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Dota2 and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Dota 2: PARIVISION vs Natus Vincere (BO3)this page
- Dota 2: PARIVISION vs Natus Vincere - Game 1 WinnerPARIVISION won
- Dota 2: PARIVISION vs Natus Vincere - Game 2 WinnerPARIVISION won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.