WNBA · resolved market
Mercury vs. Mystics
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x957f35a97865f3913aabdcc8072bd5c0fe79a6d5f5e3fc6f779d2bde77c22d0d
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Mercuryof Mercury, Mystics
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- WNBAevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $32,337
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $34,818
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $32,337 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 47 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in WNBA is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in WNBA | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x90ba…63f3backed Mystics | 21c | 2,659$558 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$558.17 | 239 | 31.8%76 W · 163 L | +11.4wins | +0.05per pick | 27cpaid | +16.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xead1…c76abacked Mercury | 79c | 1,581$1,249 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$332.01 | 85 | 48.2%41 W · 44 L | +3.4wins | +0.04per pick | 44cpaid | +17.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x328e…dc42backed Mystics | 16c | 1,350$211 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$211.05 | 27 | 51.9%14 W · 13 L | +2.8wins | +0.10per pick | 42cpaid | +17.8%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x29c0…efaabacked Mercury | 80c | 864.34$689 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$174.94 | 90 | 55.6%50 W · 40 L | -1.5wins | -0.02per pick | 57cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2129…4222backed Mystics | 19c | 759.21$145 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$145.4 | 44 | 38.6%17 W · 27 L | +0.5wins | +0.01per pick | 38cpaid | -4.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3697…f189backed Mystics | 13c | 669.23$87 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$87 | 92 | 14.1%13 W · 79 L | -2.7wins | -0.03per pick | 17cpaid | -28.6%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd2bd…dce0backed Mystics | 20c | 622$126 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$125.74 | 78 | 55.1%43 W · 35 L | +3.4wins | +0.04per pick | 51cpaid | +17.3%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb852…bfaebacked Mystics | 21c | 600$126 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$125.56 | 66 | 31.8%21 W · 45 L | +3.1wins | +0.05per pick | 27cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2509…e4dbbacked Mercury | 80c | 556.16$445 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$111.42 | 39 | 38.5%15 W · 24 L | -2.4wins | -0.06per pick | 45cpaid | -19.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6239…c24fbacked Mercury | 80c | 533$426 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$106.6 | 77 | 53.2%41 W · 36 L | -0.9wins | -0.01per pick | 54cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8b7e…6a9fbacked Mystics | 21c | 476.19$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 234 | 31.6%74 W · 160 L | +1.3wins | +0.01per pick | 31cpaid | +4.5%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdc4b…5a92backed Mystics | 22c | 454.55$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 272 | 32.7%89 W · 183 L | +4.2wins | +0.02per pick | 31cpaid | +6.3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc684…2228backed Mystics | 18c | 401.07$74 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$73.71 | 66 | 51.5%34 W · 32 L | +3.2wins | +0.05per pick | 47cpaid | -9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x480d…f219backed Mystics | 22c | 356.82$78 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$78.5 | 175 | 41.1%72 W · 103 L | +1.0wins | +0.01per pick | 41cpaid | +8.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf79c…cb96backed Mystics | 20c | 336.8$66 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$66.16 | 7 | 0%0 W · 7 L | -3.3wins | -0.47per pick | 47cpaid | -100%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xd211…628bbacked Mercury | 80c | 300$240 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$60 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.20per pick | 80cpaid | +25%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x80b1…f64abacked Mystics | 22c | 277.18$61 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60.98 | 52 | 21.2%11 W · 41 L | -4.2wins | -0.08per pick | 29cpaid | -30.5%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x79cb…331ebacked Mystics | 11c | 276$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.44 | 62 | 4.8%3 W · 59 L | -2.6wins | -0.04per pick | 9cpaid | -44.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xedbd…06c9backed Mercury | 79c | 227.85$180 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47.85 | 28 | 42.9%12 W · 16 L | -2.5wins | -0.09per pick | 52cpaid | -23%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Mystics | 18c | 224.66$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.86 | 1,611 | 50.2%809 W · 802 L | +37.9wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5137…1556backed Mystics | 20c | 215.34$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.15 | 48 | 35.4%17 W · 31 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4d9a…4e25backed Mercury | 79c | 200$158 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42 | 24 | 50%12 W · 12 L | +1.7wins | +0.07per pick | 43cpaid | +22.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3545…741dbacked Mystics | 27c | 200$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.3wins | +0.13per pick | 37cpaid | +6.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1f19…aec2backed Mystics | 34c | 199.2$68 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$67.73 | 130 | 44.6%58 W · 72 L | -4.2wins | -0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -17.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5b58…7273backed Mercury | 71c | 140.76$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.82 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.1wins | +0.03per pick | 57cpaid | -2%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7ccf…2fedbacked Mercury | 80c | 138.75$111 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.75 | 25 | 68%17 W · 8 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 67cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf10f…004dbacked Mercury | 79c | 126.58$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.58 | 9 | 55.6%5 W · 4 L | -0.4wins | -0.05per pick | 61cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9d5f…84bfbacked Mercury | 79c | 124.5$98 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.14 | 89 | 53.9%48 W · 41 L | -3.8wins | -0.04per pick | 58cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1208…0160backed Mystics | 17c | 110$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.1 | 232 | 34.5%80 W · 152 L | +2.7wins | +0.01per pick | 33cpaid | -17.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf102…1348backed Mystics | 19c | 104.98$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.95 | 141 | 36.2%51 W · 90 L | +11.9wins | +0.08per pick | 28cpaid | +28%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xf5a7…5c6bbacked Mercury | 80c | 100$80 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20 | 10 | 60%6 W · 4 L | -0.3wins | -0.03per pick | 63cpaid | -9.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xea9e…d3fbbacked Mystics | 20c | 100$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 27 | 40.7%11 W · 16 L | +4.6wins | +0.17per pick | 24cpaid | +88.1%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x24b9…bcb1backed Mystics | 13c | 100$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13 | 20 | 15%3 W · 17 L | +0.9wins | +0.05per pick | 10cpaid | +33.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9f9a…06d0backed Mercury | 79c | 73.48$58 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.43 | 14 | 57.1%8 W · 6 L | -2.0wins | -0.15per pick | 72cpaid | -19.9%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf8b4…14b8backed Mystics | 21c | 71.43$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.21per pick | 21cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4133…e834backed Mystics | 19c | 65.79$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.5 | 30 | 60%18 W · 12 L | +2.0wins | +0.07per pick | 53cpaid | +23.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x35ac…c70dbacked Mystics | 20c | 60$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.6wins | -0.31per pick | 31cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2272…2e9cbacked Mystics | 20c | 59.61$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.92 | 50 | 48%24 W · 26 L | +4.0wins | +0.08per pick | 40cpaid | +7.8%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5530…d38dbacked Mystics | 22c | 50$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 206 | 42.7%88 W · 118 L | -3.4wins | -0.02per pick | 44cpaid | +4%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x605a…c6debacked Mercury | 75c | 50$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.7 | 34 | 73.5%25 W · 9 L | +4.0wins | +0.12per pick | 62cpaid | +18.6%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xa548…51c9backed Mercury | 80c | 40$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.20per pick | 80cpaid | +25%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc90e…be2cbacked Mercury | 80c | 36.25$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.25 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.20per pick | 80cpaid | +25%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x56b6…d3eebacked Mercury | 80c | 31.25$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.25 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.02per pick | 73cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1992…fd4dbacked Mercury | 80c | 31.25$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.25 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.20per pick | 80cpaid | +25%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x60f5…e262backed Mercury | 80c | 25$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.08 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +0.8wins | +0.27per pick | 73cpaid | +38.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7ab5…0dddbacked Mercury | 80c | 21.63$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.33 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.20per pick | 80cpaid | +25%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe863…e221backed Mercury | 76c | 19.7$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.73 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.24per pick | 76cpaid | +31.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in WNBA and say nothing about this market.
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.