Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 21°C on April 24?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x959668ed7564f1c96144e121403016e88c4bd3e2d22daa6799ddc47f9b32f6a7
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $17,916
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $22,148
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $17,916 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 48 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x116d…fbf1backed Yes | 67c | 391.05$261 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$130.39 | 178 | 59%105 W · 73 L | +20.1wins | +0.11per pick | 48cpaid | +26.2%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x7b20…bc23backed No | 59c | 335.52$198 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$197.96 | 811 | 65.8%534 W · 277 L | -37.1wins | -0.05per pick | 70cpaid | -6.7%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8929…733ebacked No | 12c | 303.25$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.03 | 564 | 24.5%138 W · 426 L | -18.3wins | -0.03per pick | 28cpaid | -31.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x510f…a43cbacked Yes | 78c | 257.04$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$56.91 | 3,474 | 33.9%1,177 W · 2,297 L | -175.6wins | -0.05per pick | 39cpaid | -28.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x17f0…20febacked No | 5c | 253$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.65 | 151 | 6.6%10 W · 141 L | -3.2wins | -0.02per pick | 9cpaid | -53.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb06a…52f5backed Yes | 47c | 244.01$114 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$130.22 | 5,832 | 36.7%2,138 W · 3,694 L | +211.1wins | +0.04per pick | 33cpaid | -24.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 29c | 242.13$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70.38 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2e5b…292bbacked No | 10c | 220.76$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.66 | 25 | 32%8 W · 17 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 31cpaid | -43.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4464…b76dbacked Yes | 46c | 211.2$97 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$114.02 | 86 | 26.7%23 W · 63 L | +3.9wins | +0.05per pick | 22cpaid | +48.3%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x309c…09b5backed No | 57c | 194.62$111 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$110.73 | 288 | 39.9%115 W · 173 L | -13.1wins | -0.05per pick | 44cpaid | -8.4%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6ec8…99d2backed No | 58c | 172.17$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$99.86 | 833 | 60.7%506 W · 327 L | +1.6wins | 0.00per pick | 61cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xae68…064abacked No | 78c | 144.35$113 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$113.11 | 2,555 | 63.8%1,631 W · 924 L | +38.4wins | +0.02per pick | 62cpaid | +8.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4cef…d85bbacked Yes | 77c | 144.02$111 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.22 | 50 | 44%22 W · 28 L | -3.1wins | -0.06per pick | 50cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x01a6…59b0backed No | 79c | 143.81$114 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$113.63 | 1,679 | 61.7%1,036 W · 643 L | +6.3wins | 0.00per pick | 61cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xea6b…5ac2backed No | 71c | 136.56$97 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$97.11 | 534 | 37.3%199 W · 335 L | -29.9wins | -0.06per pick | 43cpaid | -22.3%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xaff9…64ffbacked Yes | 26c | 124.92$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$92.72 | 2,674 | 30%803 W · 1,871 L | +5.4wins | 0.00per pick | 30cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed No | 26c | 115.65$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.07 | 7,148 | 9.3%666 W · 6,482 L | -1,105.8wins | -0.15per pick | 25cpaid | -75.9%equal weight | 33-0.15 edge/pick |
| 0x91c1…8367backed No | 22c | 86.18$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.84 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.18per pick | 51cpaid | -39.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4ce3…4291backed Yes | 29c | 83.08$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$59.15 | 2,165 | 23.8%516 W · 1,649 L | +83.8wins | +0.04per pick | 20cpaid | +14.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x425d…6cb0backed Yes | 42c | 79.31$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.35 | 253 | 44.7%113 W · 140 L | -5.7wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2ef2…faa5backed Yes | 62c | 77.51$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.41 | 428 | 49.5%212 W · 216 L | +45.8wins | +0.11per pick | 39cpaid | +23%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked Yes | 69c | 74.83$52 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.91 | 2,119 | 36.1%764 W · 1,355 L | -12.1wins | -0.01per pick | 37cpaid | -26.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2702…06bebacked Yes | 46c | 72.71$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.03 | 93 | 28%26 W · 67 L | +0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 28cpaid | +49.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4829…97ebbacked Yes | 80c | 69.83$56 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.97 | 399 | 51.1%204 W · 195 L | +14.0wins | +0.04per pick | 48cpaid | +14.3%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdd61…ebbdbacked Yes | 79c | 67.74$54 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.23 | 28 | 60.7%17 W · 11 L | +2.3wins | +0.08per pick | 52cpaid | -9.4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5076…8f0cbacked Yes | 42c | 63.79$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.9wins | +0.46per pick | 54cpaid | +94.5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa49b…7054backed No | 73c | 62.38$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.28 | 7,481 | 37.5%2,808 W · 4,673 L | +97.4wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed No | 53c | 58.26$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.08 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0x3808…8b90backed Yes | 55c | 51.89$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.23 | 85 | 63.5%54 W · 31 L | +1.1wins | +0.01per pick | 62cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2986…b3a9backed No | 30c | 50$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 2,995 | 31.4%940 W · 2,055 L | +41.6wins | +0.01per pick | 30cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x607c…8e7ebacked Yes | 27c | 46.59$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.85 | 960 | 15%144 W · 816 L | +9.2wins | +0.01per pick | 14cpaid | +4.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x75f3…fe29backed No | 22c | 46.1$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.14 | 521 | 55.3%288 W · 233 L | -5.9wins | -0.01per pick | 56cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5f21…b376backed Yes | 23c | 44.81$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.31 | 17,355 | 19.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L | +396.7wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3972…a677backed No | 74c | 42.55$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.49 | 817 | 56.4%461 W · 356 L | -23.0wins | -0.03per pick | 59cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x108f…7136backed Yes | 26c | 42.38$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.36 | 48 | 41.7%20 W · 28 L | +1.8wins | +0.04per pick | 38cpaid | +24.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1746…9194backed No | 57c | 33.68$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.3 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.57per pick | 57cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xeb54…d452backed No | 59c | 33$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.47 | 4,525 | 65.6%2,967 W · 1,558 L | -134.0wins | -0.03per pick | 69cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x71f1…708cbacked Yes | 47c | 28.4$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.17 | 37 | 35.1%13 W · 24 L | -4.6wins | -0.12per pick | 48cpaid | -27%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xd802…d766backed No | 74c | 26.32$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.48 | 306 | 64.1%196 W · 110 L | -0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 64cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe422…4d64backed No | 45c | 25$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.25 | 2,065 | 43.6%900 W · 1,165 L | -11.3wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbd0d…1fb4backed Yes | 45c | 22.91$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.51 | 242 | 38%92 W · 150 L | +11.6wins | +0.05per pick | 33cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xdd7a…7bfbbacked No | 74c | 22$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.28 | 4,961 | 68.3%3,386 W · 1,575 L | +65.6wins | +0.01per pick | 67cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9907…8a50backed Yes | 46c | 21.76$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.74 | 80 | 46.3%37 W · 43 L | -2.0wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb906…6301backed No | 78c | 19.78$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.42 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.8wins | -0.78per pick | 78cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xacb6…337fbacked Yes | 56c | 19.41$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.57 | 43 | 37.2%16 W · 27 L | +1.1wins | +0.03per pick | 35cpaid | -0.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x31dc…ce99backed Yes | 56c | 19.41$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.57 | 104 | 27.9%29 W · 75 L | -0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 28cpaid | -23.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xeedf…71e6backed Yes | 73c | 14.9$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.06 | 29 | 41.4%12 W · 17 L | -1.7wins | -0.06per pick | 47cpaid | -27.1%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf528…7e5bbacked No | 71c | 14.67$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.35 | 1,313 | 76.1%999 W · 314 L | +20.9wins | +0.02per pick | 74cpaid | +2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 21°C on April 24?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 18°C on April 24?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 19°C on April 24?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 20°C on April 24?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 22°C on April 24?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 23°C on April 24?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 24°C or higher on April 24?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.