Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 22°C on April 24?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xcd1dab251e78385af39d71785b5083c6b57e5cc067f12eac35135edca226e47e
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $8,415
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $9,316
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $8,415 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 38 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x6d3e…e0f1backed Yes | 9c | 397.74$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.08 | 80 | 13.8%11 W · 69 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 14cpaid | +6.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb06a…52f5backed Yes | 35c | 244.11$85 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$85.17 | 5,832 | 36.7%2,138 W · 3,694 L | +211.1wins | +0.04per pick | 33cpaid | -24.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6ec8…99d2backed No | 62c | 161.29$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$61.29 | 833 | 60.7%506 W · 327 L | +1.6wins | 0.00per pick | 61cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xaa93…0bc7backed Yes | 8c | 150$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.3 | 3,859 | 23.4%903 W · 2,956 L | +128.4wins | +0.03per pick | 20cpaid | +10%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8929…733ebacked No | 71c | 140.94$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.97 | 564 | 24.5%138 W · 426 L | -18.3wins | -0.03per pick | 28cpaid | -31.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5f21…b376backed Yes | 24c | 124.53$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.54 | 17,355 | 19.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L | +396.7wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xae68…064abacked No | 75c | 113.47$85 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.46 | 2,555 | 63.8%1,631 W · 924 L | +38.4wins | +0.02per pick | 62cpaid | +8.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x116d…fbf1backed No | 68c | 109.42$74 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.09 | 178 | 59%105 W · 73 L | +20.1wins | +0.11per pick | 48cpaid | +26.2%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed Yes | 14c | 106.09$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.85 | 7,148 | 9.3%666 W · 6,482 L | -1,105.8wins | -0.15per pick | 25cpaid | -75.9%equal weight | 33-0.15 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed No | 69c | 105$72 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.99 | 9,490 | 45.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L | -278.5wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x01a6…59b0backed No | 76c | 94.87$72 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.39 | 1,679 | 61.7%1,036 W · 643 L | +6.3wins | 0.00per pick | 61cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xac45…844fbacked Yes | 34c | 94.47$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.75 | 34 | 23.5%8 W · 26 L | -4.1wins | -0.12per pick | 36cpaid | -54.2%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x607c…8e7ebacked Yes | 13c | 83.65$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.28 | 960 | 15%144 W · 816 L | +9.2wins | +0.01per pick | 14cpaid | +4.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbc13…5eb6backed No | 77c | 83.41$64 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.18 | 517 | 62.3%322 W · 195 L | -15.5wins | -0.03per pick | 65cpaid | -6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8798…45efbacked Yes | 38c | 74.05$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.14 | 77 | 36.4%28 W · 49 L | -0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 37cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7b20…bc23backed No | 59c | 74.04$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.36 | 811 | 65.8%534 W · 277 L | -37.1wins | -0.05per pick | 70cpaid | -6.7%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x108f…7136backed Yes | 38c | 57.18$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.57 | 48 | 41.7%20 W · 28 L | +1.8wins | +0.04per pick | 38cpaid | +24.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfa28…c37ebacked Yes | 31c | 54.23$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.73 | 3,939 | 35.3%1,392 W · 2,547 L | +35.4wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfc8a…8f0bbacked Yes | 22c | 49.99$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 103 | 27.2%28 W · 75 L | -0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 28cpaid | +5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xef60…d6c2backed Yes | 39c | 46.97$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.52 | 285 | 17.9%51 W · 234 L | -9.5wins | -0.03per pick | 21cpaid | -14.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4464…b76dbacked Yes | 33c | 46$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.02 | 86 | 26.7%23 W · 63 L | +3.9wins | +0.05per pick | 22cpaid | +48.3%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2702…06bebacked Yes | 32c | 42.5$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.75 | 93 | 28%26 W · 67 L | +0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 28cpaid | +49.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6a8d…50f9backed No | 75c | 40.87$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.09 | 9,799 | 44.6%4,367 W · 5,432 L | +256.4wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa98a…a5a8backed No | 69c | 40.62$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.42 | 2,015 | 67.7%1,365 W · 650 L | +1.8wins | 0.00per pick | 68cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x31dc…ce99backed Yes | 32c | 40$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.9 | 104 | 27.9%29 W · 75 L | -0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 28cpaid | -23.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xacb6…337fbacked Yes | 32c | 40$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.9 | 43 | 37.2%16 W · 27 L | +1.1wins | +0.03per pick | 35cpaid | -0.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xef2e…10c3backed Yes | 39c | 37.18$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.63 | 402 | 42.5%171 W · 231 L | -12.4wins | -0.03per pick | 46cpaid | -12.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa49b…7054backed No | 63c | 34.59$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.8 | 7,481 | 37.5%2,808 W · 4,673 L | +97.4wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x71f1…708cbacked Yes | 40c | 28.2$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.28 | 37 | 35.1%13 W · 24 L | -4.6wins | -0.12per pick | 48cpaid | -27%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x9b43…33cebacked No | 61c | 28.09$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.82 | 343 | 69.4%238 W · 105 L | +3.8wins | +0.01per pick | 68cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3507…71d7backed No | 73c | 28.08$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.52 | 333 | 73%243 W · 90 L | +1.1wins | 0.00per pick | 73cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3808…8b90backed No | 63c | 26.19$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.73 | 85 | 63.5%54 W · 31 L | +1.1wins | +0.01per pick | 62cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x35e6…7a4dbacked No | 72c | 25.78$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.12 | 1,699 | 60.6%1,029 W · 670 L | -24.7wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9410…9160backed No | 77c | 25.14$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.86 | 420 | 49%206 W · 214 L | -15.9wins | -0.04per pick | 53cpaid | -2.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3972…a677backed No | 75c | 24.23$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.16 | 817 | 56.4%461 W · 356 L | -23.0wins | -0.03per pick | 59cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x79f4…8812backed No | 76c | 24.1$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.87 | 50 | 60%30 W · 20 L | -1.4wins | -0.03per pick | 63cpaid | -10.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x354e…c0b2backed No | 70c | 23.36$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.01 | 32 | 46.9%15 W · 17 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +3.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3334…69b0backed No | 75c | 16.86$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.27 | 464 | 44.4%206 W · 258 L | -18.2wins | -0.04per pick | 48cpaid | -12.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 22°C on April 24?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 18°C on April 24?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 19°C on April 24?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 20°C on April 24?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 21°C on April 24?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 23°C on April 24?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 24°C or higher on April 24?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.