Tennis · resolved market
Australian Open Women's: Xinyu Wang vs Anhelina Kalinina
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x959dd7ff619955e27af8ed25b49cad90c454fc60958ac6c24ac50b22e1812c2f
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Wangof Wang, Kalinina
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Tennisevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $30,216
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $31,940
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $30,216 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a prediction-market account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 50 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Tennis is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Tennis | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x9fa9…c100backed Kalinina | 43c | 5,000$2,150 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,149.98 | 430 | 51.2%220 W · 210 L | +5.2wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Wang | 65c | 4,494$2,915 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,578.35 | 8,241 | 45.5%3,746 W · 4,495 L | +166.2wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -16.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x046c…2a9cbacked Kalinina | 43c | 3,928$1,707 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,707.32 | 352 | 47.2%166 W · 186 L | -23.2wins | -0.07per pick | 54cpaid | -16.5%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xa2e4…bf9dbacked Kalinina | 44c | 3,000$1,320 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,319.99 | 180 | 47.2%85 W · 95 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -5.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd6a3…9489backed Wang | 56c | 2,459$1,381 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,078.23 | 2,746 | 30.8%846 W · 1,900 L | -67.1wins | -0.02per pick | 33cpaid | -36.1%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcdb8…abbebacked Kalinina | 20c | 1,363$266 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$266.19 | 190 | 23.2%44 W · 146 L | -10.8wins | -0.06per pick | 29cpaid | -23.6%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Wang | 63c | 1,306$816 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$489.68 | 11,779 | 43.3%5,102 W · 6,677 L | +20.5wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | -20%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1997…2e36backed Kalinina | 44c | 1,150$506 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$506 | 81 | 58%47 W · 34 L | +4.4wins | +0.05per pick | 53cpaid | +6.7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6b7c…5f83backed Wang | 57c | 1,017$579 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$438.31 | 2,426 | 47.3%1,148 W · 1,278 L | +45.2wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -13.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xaeb5…58e2backed Wang | 55c | 1,000$550 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$450 | 819 | 38.9%319 W · 500 L | -4.5wins | -0.01per pick | 39cpaid | -8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x507e…beaebacked Wang | 71c | 705.12$501 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$204.5 | 7,018 | 43.2%3,031 W · 3,987 L | +124.9wins | +0.02per pick | 41cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x972b…78babacked Wang | 55c | 602.36$332 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$270.33 | 2,982 | 39.1%1,167 W · 1,815 L | -109.1wins | -0.04per pick | 43cpaid | -30.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9d94…017dbacked Kalinina | 24c | 588.13$141 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$140.9 | 2,068 | 34.9%721 W · 1,347 L | -44.2wins | -0.02per pick | 37cpaid | -25.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5e30…acbfbacked Wang | 54c | 512.61$277 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$235.8 | 7,774 | 47.8%3,715 W · 4,059 L | +40.8wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x84d7…298fbacked Kalinina | 43c | 388.64$169 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$168.83 | 265 | 35.5%94 W · 171 L | -3.5wins | -0.01per pick | 37cpaid | -10.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xde04…fa37backed Wang | 66c | 385$254 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$131.3 | 1,107 | 42.8%474 W · 633 L | -20.0wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -16.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9f13…e0fdbacked Kalinina | 40c | 383.32$153 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$153.41 | 761 | 40.6%309 W · 452 L | -15.3wins | -0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9086…4d46backed Wang | 56c | 357.14$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$157.14 | 1,862 | 48.3%900 W · 962 L | -33.5wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa877…2e20backed Kalinina | 45c | 320$144 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$144 | 810 | 47.9%388 W · 422 L | +30.1wins | +0.04per pick | 44cpaid | +9.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1660…9d86backed Wang | 56c | 265.52$150 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$115.54 | 89 | 64%57 W · 32 L | +2.8wins | +0.03per pick | 61cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2652…2a1dbacked Kalinina | 17c | 230.89$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.15 | 2,489 | 45.2%1,126 W · 1,363 L | -27.4wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -21.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1243…2a64backed Wang | 57c | 204.33$116 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$87.86 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -1.3wins | -0.22per pick | 56cpaid | -46.3%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe061…93f9backed Kalinina | 5c | 200$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.2 | 78 | 3.8%3 W · 75 L | -1.4wins | -0.02per pick | 6cpaid | -55%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf788…6f86backed Wang | 57c | 187.72$107 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$80.72 | 22 | 45.5%10 W · 12 L | -4.2wins | -0.19per pick | 64cpaid | -29.9%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x0f86…404ebacked Kalinina | 30c | 163.49$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.94 | 111 | 22.5%25 W · 86 L | -16.1wins | -0.15per pick | 37cpaid | -63.5%equal weight | 37-0.12 edge/pick |
| 0x78f7…2c5dbacked Wang | 57c | 121.4$69 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52.2 | 244 | 48.8%119 W · 125 L | +17.1wins | +0.07per pick | 42cpaid | +23.3%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x1793…4ebbbacked Wang | 59c | 84.75$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.75 | 940 | 60.6%570 W · 370 L | +11.3wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | +2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x395c…494bbacked Wang | 62c | 56.45$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.45 | 19 | 42.1%8 W · 11 L | +0.6wins | +0.03per pick | 39cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x56e6…45e9backed Wang | 57c | 51.04$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.95 | 34 | 67.6%23 W · 11 L | +1.4wins | +0.04per pick | 64cpaid | +6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa4bd…e8a2backed Kalinina | 24c | 50$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.13 | 884 | 55%486 W · 398 L | +37.4wins | +0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd610…4c9abacked Kalinina | 44c | 50$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22 | 1,212 | 33.1%401 W · 811 L | -16.7wins | -0.01per pick | 34cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9359…6aacbacked Kalinina | 39c | 50$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.5 | 157 | 51.6%81 W · 76 L | +4.5wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -14%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x588b…8593backed Wang | 52c | 48.31$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.97 | 1,107 | 43.5%481 W · 626 L | -3.9wins | 0.00per pick | 44cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x344b…f7fcbacked Wang | 57c | 46$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.89 | 990 | 44.8%444 W · 546 L | -10.8wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -17.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1186…0d03backed Kalinina | 46c | 43.54$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 166 | 57.8%96 W · 70 L | +4.2wins | +0.03per pick | 55cpaid | +3.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8616…cfbebacked Wang | 55c | 43.5$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.5 | 30 | 70%21 W · 9 L | +2.0wins | +0.07per pick | 63cpaid | +9.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x97e9…1587backed Wang | 60c | 41.96$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.96 | 104 | 62.5%65 W · 39 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfc8f…3782backed Kalinina | 45c | 41.71$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.58 | 314 | 34.4%108 W · 206 L | -25.2wins | -0.08per pick | 42cpaid | -32.7%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x584d…d358backed Wang | 73c | 33.35$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.97 | 341 | 59.5%203 W · 138 L | -8.2wins | -0.02per pick | 62cpaid | -5.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9c9e…ae86backed Kalinina | 46c | 32.61$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +0.6wins | +0.09per pick | 57cpaid | +12.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb821…5cddbacked Wang | 57c | 30.14$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.96 | 364 | 64.3%234 W · 130 L | -1.9wins | -0.01per pick | 65cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6e9b…8b7dbacked Kalinina | 48c | 30$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.4 | 271 | 36.9%100 W · 171 L | -1.5wins | -0.01per pick | 37cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x089a…4d09backed Wang | 52c | 30$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.4 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 21cpaid | -61.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbf0b…3f2dbacked Wang | 74c | 27.03$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.03 | 7 | 71.4%5 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | +0.01per pick | 71cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc1d3…55a4backed Wang | 59c | 25.42$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.42 | 14 | 42.9%6 W · 8 L | +1.5wins | +0.11per pick | 32cpaid | +56.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8104…3128backed Wang | 71c | 25.12$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.28 | 59 | 44.1%26 W · 33 L | -2.7wins | -0.05per pick | 49cpaid | -21.7%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf18a…e4e5backed Wang | 57c | 24.98$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.74 | 2,343 | 51.6%1,209 W · 1,134 L | +95.2wins | +0.04per pick | 48cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x200f…7a96backed Wang | 55c | 23.23$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.35 | 7,201 | 49.7%3,577 W · 3,624 L | +114.6wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3ffa…f2cfbacked Wang | 61c | 21.44$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.45 | 70 | 41.4%29 W · 41 L | -2.3wins | -0.03per pick | 45cpaid | -23.9%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2ecb…7645backed Wang | 66c | 20$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.8 | 930 | 48.8%454 W · 476 L | +21.5wins | +0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Tennis and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Australian Open Women's: Xinyu Wang vs Anhelina Kalininathis page
- Set 1 Winner: Wang vs KalininaWang won
- Set Handicap: Wang (-1.5) vs Kalinina (+1.5)Wang won
- Wang vs. Kalinina: Match O/U 21.5Under won
- Wang vs. Kalinina: Match O/U 23.5Under won
- Wang vs. Kalinina: Set 1 Games O/U 10.5Under won
- Wang vs. Kalinina: Total Sets O/U 2.5Under 2.5 won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.