CS2 · resolved market
Counter-Strike: Butterfly vs Black Phoenix - Map 2 Winner
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x95b161c6232919c96fec3f4c18413d3a20a7540c0dda6e0c7433d6a9fdc128e6
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Butterflyof Butterfly, Black Phoenix
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- CS2every record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $18,282
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $22,787
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $18,282 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 42 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in CS2 is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in CS2 | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xf03c…add8backed Butterfly | 75c | 3,289$2,475 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$813.65 | 13 | 61.5%8 W · 5 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x076d…8d4cbacked Butterfly | 79c | 3,256$2,578 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$677.8 | 489 | 48.9%239 W · 250 L | -4.7wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8c8b…7a07backed Butterfly | 71c | 1,108$781 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$326.77 | 211 | 59.7%126 W · 85 L | +9.2wins | +0.04per pick | 55cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6dea…e294backed Black Phoenix | 22c | 856.86$192 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$191.61 | 358 | 48.3%173 W · 185 L | +9.1wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfe9b…cbe5backed Black Phoenix | 24c | 759.98$182 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$181.89 | 442 | 44.1%195 W · 247 L | +12.3wins | +0.03per pick | 41cpaid | +7.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd055…28d0backed Black Phoenix | 28c | 707.98$199 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$199.2 | 655 | 46.9%307 W · 348 L | +18.4wins | +0.03per pick | 44cpaid | +6.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5011…94b4backed Black Phoenix | 19c | 624.7$119 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$118.69 | 499 | 41.7%208 W · 291 L | +2.2wins | 0.00per pick | 41cpaid | +17.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5f50…e12bbacked Black Phoenix | 21c | 449.98$94 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$94 | 49 | 42.9%21 W · 28 L | -2.2wins | -0.04per pick | 47cpaid | -13.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x95f5…ecf5backed Black Phoenix | 31c | 407.44$127 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$127.28 | 15 | 40%6 W · 9 L | -1.0wins | -0.07per pick | 47cpaid | -14.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xee83…bc59backed Black Phoenix | 29c | 388$114 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$113.84 | 20 | 70%14 W · 6 L | +4.6wins | +0.23per pick | 47cpaid | +44.4%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xbfd7…f0bfbacked Black Phoenix | 23c | 373.17$87 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$87.16 | 5,511 | 47%2,590 W · 2,921 L | +42.0wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x588d…3f41backed Black Phoenix | 17c | 359.99$62 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$62 | 835 | 43.6%364 W · 471 L | -9.0wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdc2b…cec3backed Black Phoenix | 21c | 334.4$71 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$71.07 | 80 | 45%36 W · 44 L | +1.8wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8bec…7800backed Black Phoenix | 38c | 321.96$123 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$122.91 | 334 | 48.2%161 W · 173 L | +6.4wins | +0.02per pick | 46cpaid | +0.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4c76…fcc2backed Black Phoenix | 22c | 304.09$68 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$68.08 | 11 | 9.1%1 W · 10 L | -3.2wins | -0.29per pick | 38cpaid | -80.7%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x2b49…d827backed Black Phoenix | 29c | 277.5$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80.07 | 24 | 33.3%8 W · 16 L | -2.3wins | -0.09per pick | 43cpaid | -39.9%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd6c4…8930backed Black Phoenix | 31c | 269.34$83 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$83.46 | 63 | 38.1%24 W · 39 L | -4.8wins | -0.08per pick | 46cpaid | -29.2%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1242…9077backed Black Phoenix | 33c | 263.04$87 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$87.28 | 117 | 45.3%53 W · 64 L | +5.7wins | +0.05per pick | 40cpaid | +9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2e3c…08babacked Black Phoenix | 24c | 258.43$61 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60.86 | 4,691 | 43.6%2,043 W · 2,648 L | -83.2wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -21.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9ab3…3044backed Butterfly | 74c | 252.56$187 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$65.74 | 1,083 | 42.1%456 W · 627 L | -13.5wins | -0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -8.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdbdd…a5debacked Black Phoenix | 22c | 241.98$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54.04 | 7,925 | 50.4%3,997 W · 3,928 L | +179.4wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x299f…2c50backed Black Phoenix | 33c | 190.51$62 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$62.27 | 721 | 39.7%286 W · 435 L | -25.9wins | -0.04per pick | 43cpaid | -19.6%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x57ce…aceebacked Black Phoenix | 25c | 170.64$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.26 | 19 | 36.8%7 W · 12 L | -1.5wins | -0.08per pick | 45cpaid | -33.1%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x83e0…82abbacked Black Phoenix | 31c | 168.06$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52 | 10 | 50%5 W · 5 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc0d4…0289backed Black Phoenix | 32c | 157.19$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 175 | 46.3%81 W · 94 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7585…dcb3backed Black Phoenix | 27c | 153.98$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.96 | 14 | 50%7 W · 7 L | +1.4wins | +0.10per pick | 40cpaid | +33%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb595…4b77backed Black Phoenix | 38c | 153.49$59 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59 | 55 | 45.5%25 W · 30 L | -4.1wins | -0.07per pick | 53cpaid | -20.2%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf1ee…519cbacked Black Phoenix | 54c | 137.58$74 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$74.02 | 3,202 | 45.6%1,459 W · 1,743 L | -79.3wins | -0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -16%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1b59…0ba0backed Black Phoenix | 27c | 131.56$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.94 | 557 | 38.4%214 W · 343 L | +11.5wins | +0.02per pick | 36cpaid | -1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5fa2…6df9backed Butterfly | 72c | 120.84$87 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.17 | 162 | 45.7%74 W · 88 L | -7.1wins | -0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -12%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6ee2…a316backed Black Phoenix | 30c | 115$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.85 | 10 | 30%3 W · 7 L | -2.0wins | -0.20per pick | 50cpaid | -49.1%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xbd2a…0620backed Black Phoenix | 32c | 112.44$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36 | 14 | 35.7%5 W · 9 L | -1.1wins | -0.08per pick | 43cpaid | -32.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa16b…b541backed Butterfly | 54c | 77.11$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.47 | 434 | 55.1%239 W · 195 L | +13.9wins | +0.03per pick | 52cpaid | +6.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x70fe…3c28backed Butterfly | 53c | 75.78$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.69 | 13 | 53.8%7 W · 6 L | +2.6wins | +0.20per pick | 34cpaid | +44.6%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x94d2…cfbdbacked Black Phoenix | 20c | 73.13$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.63 | 2,110 | 47.2%995 W · 1,115 L | -62.2wins | -0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -18.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x54e0…b02cbacked Black Phoenix | 30c | 69.34$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.68 | 1,650 | 32.7%540 W · 1,110 L | -49.1wins | -0.03per pick | 36cpaid | -12.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa4d1…afbfbacked Black Phoenix | 32c | 62.8$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.1 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | -0.4wins | -0.05per pick | 62cpaid | -19.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9eeb…a72cbacked Butterfly | 79c | 52.43$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.84 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | +0.3wins | +0.05per pick | 52cpaid | +3.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed Butterfly | 68c | 49.51$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.67 | 2,468 | 24.6%607 W · 1,861 L | -317.8wins | -0.13per pick | 37cpaid | -51.7%equal weight | 36-0.13 edge/pick |
| 0xca5f…41f5backed Black Phoenix | 36c | 41$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.75 | 104 | 52.9%55 W · 49 L | -2.7wins | -0.03per pick | 56cpaid | -9.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6f0c…a691backed Butterfly | 73c | 30$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.06 | 216 | 50.5%109 W · 107 L | +2.3wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x77de…e67abacked Butterfly | 64c | 23.61$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.6 | 526 | 45.1%237 W · 289 L | -20.2wins | -0.04per pick | 49cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in CS2 and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Counter-Strike: Butterfly vs Black Phoenix - Map 2 Winnerthis page
- Counter-Strike: Butterfly vs Black Phoenix (BO3) - NODWIN Clutch Series Group StageButterfly won
- Counter-Strike: Butterfly vs Black Phoenix - Map 1 WinnerBlack Phoenix won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.