CS2 · resolved market
Counter-Strike: Butterfly vs Black Phoenix (BO3) - NODWIN Clutch Series Group Stage
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x604a5251b352a20433f3eab310581dcda07cbd4e916a14e5f7ca864d3263c014
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Butterflyof Butterfly, Black Phoenix
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- CS2every record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $16,964
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $21,879
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $16,964 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 62 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in CS2 is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in CS2 | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x051c…ca3fbacked Butterfly | 52c | 2,000$1,030 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$970 | 358 | 47.5%170 W · 188 L | -13.4wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -10.6%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x29b5…cc6cbacked Black Phoenix | 41c | 1,935$786 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$785.91 | 5,050 | 55.1%2,781 W · 2,269 L | +117.2wins | +0.02per pick | 53cpaid | +5.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdbdd…a5debacked Black Phoenix | 57c | 1,444$819 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$819.02 | 7,925 | 50.4%3,997 W · 3,928 L | +179.4wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2f8e…0c69backed Butterfly | 42c | 1,100$462 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$637.98 | 274 | 38.3%105 W · 169 L | -5.1wins | -0.02per pick | 40cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9267…869ebacked Butterfly | 59c | 959$566 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$393.19 | 27 | 55.6%15 W · 12 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 55cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xeb17…c84bbacked Butterfly | 59c | 807$476 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$330.87 | 22 | 59.1%13 W · 9 L | +1.6wins | +0.07per pick | 52cpaid | +39.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5984…76ebbacked Black Phoenix | 41c | 628.91$260 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$260 | 526 | 36.5%192 W · 334 L | +18.8wins | +0.04per pick | 33cpaid | +11%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfd14…2267backed Butterfly | 54c | 559.53$303 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$256.05 | 5,830 | 37.8%2,203 W · 3,627 L | +79.0wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb595…5922backed Black Phoenix | 49c | 461.18$224 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$223.83 | 199 | 53.8%107 W · 92 L | +10.5wins | +0.05per pick | 49cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5cd4…035bbacked Butterfly | 61c | 325.6$199 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$126.98 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +0.9wins | +0.14per pick | 52cpaid | +13.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5c6d…ab76backed Black Phoenix | 37c | 314.44$116 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$115.94 | 338 | 49.7%168 W · 170 L | -1.3wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xced1…280ebacked Butterfly | 63c | 279.44$176 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$103.44 | 30 | 56.7%17 W · 13 L | +1.4wins | +0.05per pick | 52cpaid | +9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4a3f…4333backed Black Phoenix | 41c | 256.41$105 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$105.13 | 465 | 55.1%256 W · 209 L | +4.0wins | +0.01per pick | 54cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc34b…9296backed Black Phoenix | 41c | 243.9$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 2,009 | 53.9%1,082 W · 927 L | +7.6wins | 0.00per pick | 53cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5929…4684backed Black Phoenix | 40c | 216.35$87 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$86.54 | 4,064 | 50.9%2,067 W · 1,997 L | +69.5wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf953…2f1abacked Butterfly | 60c | 213$128 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$85.2 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.5wins | +0.18per pick | 49cpaid | +11.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5135…7217backed Butterfly | 58c | 211.49$123 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$88.82 | 1,620 | 52.7%853 W · 767 L | +57.6wins | +0.04per pick | 49cpaid | +7.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xddb6…b9b3backed Black Phoenix | 55c | 201.01$111 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$110.55 | 2,508 | 41%1,029 W · 1,479 L | -115.5wins | -0.05per pick | 46cpaid | -22.9%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2e3c…08babacked Butterfly | 46c | 190.65$87 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$103.35 | 4,691 | 43.6%2,043 W · 2,648 L | -83.2wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -21.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbb84…59d2backed Black Phoenix | 58c | 182.48$106 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$105.84 | 40 | 77.5%31 W · 9 L | +5.9wins | +0.15per pick | 63cpaid | +21.7%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x4713…4d21backed Black Phoenix | 48c | 173.99$83 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$82.72 | 5,287 | 31.3%1,657 W · 3,630 L | -383.3wins | -0.07per pick | 39cpaid | -37.1%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xbfd7…f0bfbacked Black Phoenix | 56c | 162.05$90 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$90.02 | 5,511 | 47%2,590 W · 2,921 L | +42.0wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf1ee…519cbacked Black Phoenix | 56c | 130.2$73 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$72.96 | 3,202 | 45.6%1,459 W · 1,743 L | -79.3wins | -0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -16%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5b63…11a4backed Black Phoenix | 40c | 115.05$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.02 | 1,618 | 46.8%758 W · 860 L | -28.0wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x629d…756cbacked Black Phoenix | 62c | 110$69 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$68.64 | 2,349 | 42.5%998 W · 1,351 L | -72.7wins | -0.03per pick | 46cpaid | -20.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3546…1a58backed Black Phoenix | 30c | 100$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 235 | 26.4%62 W · 173 L | -15.2wins | -0.06per pick | 33cpaid | -27.2%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x0844…bf81backed Butterfly | 71c | 98.35$70 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.35 | 351 | 48.1%169 W · 182 L | -13.9wins | -0.04per pick | 52cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x08e0…f4a0backed Black Phoenix | 42c | 95.23$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 838 | 56.1%470 W · 368 L | +31.1wins | +0.04per pick | 52cpaid | +9.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7e59…7b8bbacked Black Phoenix | 40c | 92.68$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.52 | 758 | 33.4%253 W · 505 L | -48.9wins | -0.06per pick | 40cpaid | -31%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x775d…6bebbacked Black Phoenix | 63c | 91$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57.55 | 2,136 | 42.9%916 W · 1,220 L | -68.1wins | -0.03per pick | 46cpaid | -20%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7f38…13c8backed Butterfly | 61c | 79.57$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.03 | 86 | 55.8%48 W · 38 L | -0.8wins | -0.01per pick | 57cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x203a…935fbacked Butterfly | 64c | 78.36$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.36 | 284 | 54.9%156 W · 128 L | -5.6wins | -0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe598…e597backed Butterfly | 59c | 75.9$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.12 | 33 | 60.6%20 W · 13 L | +5.2wins | +0.16per pick | 45cpaid | +29.5%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xbb8e…08c1backed Black Phoenix | 43c | 74$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.12 | 2,362 | 46.6%1,100 W · 1,262 L | -53.1wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -14.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa951…8a2fbacked Butterfly | 59c | 69.29$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.41 | 1,068 | 55%587 W · 481 L | -1.4wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -6.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x47c9…2038backed Black Phoenix | 32c | 67.64$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.62 | 351 | 41.6%146 W · 205 L | +3.0wins | +0.01per pick | 41cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdb83…1e50backed Butterfly | 39c | 63.85$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.95 | 2,624 | 51.8%1,359 W · 1,265 L | +18.1wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8ee5…ca6bbacked Butterfly | 53c | 60.38$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.38 | 39 | 59%23 W · 16 L | +1.4wins | +0.04per pick | 55cpaid | +7.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7b28…ff4fbacked Butterfly | 67c | 60$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.99 | 1,352 | 52%703 W · 649 L | +29.7wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x94d2…cfbdbacked Butterfly | 60c | 57.85$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.23 | 2,110 | 47.2%995 W · 1,115 L | -62.2wins | -0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -18.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe564…221abacked Black Phoenix | 36c | 56.11$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 1,078 | 32%345 W · 733 L | -7.5wins | -0.01per pick | 33cpaid | -6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8616…3bb0backed Butterfly | 45c | 56$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31 | 557 | 49.7%277 W · 280 L | -12.7wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x299f…2c50backed Black Phoenix | 47c | 52.54$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.49 | 721 | 39.7%286 W · 435 L | -25.9wins | -0.04per pick | 43cpaid | -19.6%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe8e0…7eecbacked Black Phoenix | 56c | 50$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.94 | 1,848 | 41.7%770 W · 1,078 L | -69.2wins | -0.04per pick | 45cpaid | -21.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd218…b5c9backed Black Phoenix | 57c | 50$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.5 | 1,579 | 29.7%469 W · 1,110 L | -86.9wins | -0.06per pick | 35cpaid | -39.1%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xdb7a…b8bdbacked Black Phoenix | 61c | 49.18$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 70 | 68.6%48 W · 22 L | +1.1wins | +0.02per pick | 67cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf1e7…f2e5backed Butterfly | 53c | 49.06$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.06 | 26 | 46.2%12 W · 14 L | -1.1wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -13.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcfa2…7321backed Black Phoenix | 41c | 48.78$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 19 | 31.6%6 W · 13 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 32cpaid | +15.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdfd1…9ac5backed Butterfly | 64c | 42.67$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.51 | 22 | 50%11 W · 11 L | -0.6wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -13.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5fa2…6df9backed Butterfly | 53c | 37.74$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.74 | 162 | 45.7%74 W · 88 L | -7.1wins | -0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -12%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xcb77…fbeebacked Black Phoenix | 58c | 37$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.46 | 231 | 56.3%130 W · 101 L | +6.3wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7a96…b71dbacked Black Phoenix | 47c | 36.49$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.15 | 39 | 33.3%13 W · 26 L | +0.7wins | +0.02per pick | 32cpaid | +9.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7c8c…2d81backed Butterfly | 51c | 30$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.78 | 457 | 48.1%220 W · 237 L | -4.6wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8935…7daabacked Butterfly | 50c | 29.56$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.86 | 2,622 | 47.6%1,249 W · 1,373 L | -33.8wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -10.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc95e…102abacked Butterfly | 59c | 27.15$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.13 | 87 | 55.2%48 W · 39 L | +3.4wins | +0.04per pick | 51cpaid | +4.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x07df…9f0cbacked Butterfly | 59c | 25.05$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.27 | 37 | 51.4%19 W · 18 L | +1.9wins | +0.05per pick | 46cpaid | +7.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0fde…0258backed Butterfly | 44c | 25$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14 | 799 | 51.7%413 W · 386 L | +25.4wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd396…442cbacked Butterfly | 60c | 25$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.95 | 42 | 57.1%24 W · 18 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 58cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc62a…76b5backed Black Phoenix | 50c | 23.81$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 160 | 48.8%78 W · 82 L | -6.3wins | -0.04per pick | 53cpaid | -5.5%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc785…4ef2backed Black Phoenix | 49c | 21.28$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.37 | 135 | 37%50 W · 85 L | -7.0wins | -0.05per pick | 42cpaid | -31.5%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6d10…b3d0backed Butterfly | 62c | 20$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.6 | 101 | 52.5%53 W · 48 L | -8.5wins | -0.08per pick | 61cpaid | -14.6%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x99f1…f02dbacked Black Phoenix | 60c | 19.8$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.92 | 26 | 30.8%8 W · 18 L | -5.4wins | -0.21per pick | 52cpaid | -40.1%equal weight | 38-0.11 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in CS2 and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Counter-Strike: Butterfly vs Black Phoenix (BO3) - NODWIN Clutch Series Group Stagethis page
- Counter-Strike: Butterfly vs Black Phoenix - Map 1 WinnerBlack Phoenix won
- Counter-Strike: Butterfly vs Black Phoenix - Map 2 WinnerButterfly won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.