MLB · resolved market
Spread: Boston Red Sox (-1.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x95b8ce9516d4117296304de7bd685f03fd335abf06ef9f5c47cf4b5e2876e350
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Tampa Bay Raysof Boston Red Sox, Tampa Bay Rays
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $2,969
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $3,579
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $2,969 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 19 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in MLB | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x31b7…21fbbacked Tampa Bay Rays | 58c | 599.99$346 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$254 | 21 | 28.6%6 W · 15 L | -2.5wins | -0.12per pick | 40cpaid | -30.8%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8eae…f9d1backed Boston Red Sox | 39c | 409.72$160 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$159.79 | 9 | 55.6%5 W · 4 L | +1.1wins | +0.12per pick | 43cpaid | +22.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9703…69c2backed Tampa Bay Rays | 61c | 409.72$250 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$159.79 | 3,453 | 51.2%1,767 W · 1,686 L | +58.1wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Boston Red Sox | 39c | 392$153 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$152.88 | 12,247 | 46.4%5,687 W · 6,560 L | -68.6wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaf5b…5d3abacked Tampa Bay Rays | 60c | 334.98$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$134.98 | 60 | 56.7%34 W · 26 L | -3.7wins | -0.06per pick | 63cpaid | -14.1%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe7c0…24eebacked Tampa Bay Rays | 62c | 250$155 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$95 | 216 | 53.2%115 W · 101 L | +2.3wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc5b1…e904backed Boston Red Sox | 38c | 250$95 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$95 | 693 | 51.9%360 W · 333 L | +26.3wins | +0.04per pick | 48cpaid | +7.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Boston Red Sox | 37c | 204.27$76 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$75.5 | 8,086 | 46.1%3,728 W · 4,358 L | +29.9wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0d2d…7ff5backed Boston Red Sox | 38c | 183.78$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$69.84 | 8,295 | 47.8%3,966 W · 4,329 L | +72.4wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x84cf…2f63backed Tampa Bay Rays | 62c | 137.95$86 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52.42 | 4,553 | 49.2%2,238 W · 2,315 L | -9.6wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5268…135dbacked Boston Red Sox | 38c | 117.78$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.25 | 11,356 | 52.9%6,002 W · 5,354 L | +209.6wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1719…ec68backed Tampa Bay Rays | 62c | 58$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.04 | 721 | 54.2%391 W · 330 L | +20.8wins | +0.03per pick | 51cpaid | +144.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8d0c…c90abacked Boston Red Sox | 38c | 50$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19 | 2,376 | 49.7%1,182 W · 1,194 L | +17.1wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9382…4ee3backed Tampa Bay Rays | 66c | 42.42$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.42 | 116 | 58.6%68 W · 48 L | +1.9wins | +0.02per pick | 57cpaid | +4.2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfe78…0319backed Tampa Bay Rays | 64c | 40$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.4 | 10,846 | 51.6%5,594 W · 5,252 L | +137.6wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0905…e5c0backed Tampa Bay Rays | 67c | 40$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.2 | 1,661 | 43.5%722 W · 939 L | -0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | -0.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcc23…a9f2backed Tampa Bay Rays | 62c | 37$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.06 | 468 | 54.5%255 W · 213 L | +12.3wins | +0.03per pick | 52cpaid | +6.9%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x36aa…a683backed Tampa Bay Rays | 62c | 18.89$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.18 | 443 | 47.9%212 W · 231 L | -5.5wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x96c1…2c59backed Tampa Bay Rays | 61c | 17.64$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.88 | 1,498 | 45.3%678 W · 820 L | -8.7wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 15 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Spread: Boston Red Sox (-1.5)this page
- Boston Red Sox vs. Tampa Bay RaysTampa Bay Rays won
- Boston Red Sox vs. Tampa Bay Rays: O/U 10.5Under won
- Boston Red Sox vs. Tampa Bay Rays: O/U 4.5Over won
- Boston Red Sox vs. Tampa Bay Rays: O/U 5.5Over won
- Boston Red Sox vs. Tampa Bay Rays: O/U 6.5Over won
- Boston Red Sox vs. Tampa Bay Rays: O/U 7.5Under won
- Boston Red Sox vs. Tampa Bay Rays: O/U 8.5Under won
- Boston Red Sox vs. Tampa Bay Rays: O/U 9.5Under won
- Spread: Boston Red Sox (-2.5)Tampa Bay Rays won
- Spread: Boston Red Sox (-3.5)Tampa Bay Rays won
- Spread: Tampa Bay Rays (-1.5)Boston Red Sox won
- Spread: Tampa Bay Rays (-2.5)Boston Red Sox won
- Spread: Tampa Bay Rays (-3.5)Boston Red Sox won
- Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: Boston Red Sox vs. Tampa Bay RaysNo won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.