MLB · resolved market
Spread: Tampa Bay Rays (-1.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xbc3ad1fd398496c0ebe2544df2bc26a8f95ee0f3f730419afd4514f7351caceb
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Boston Red Soxof Tampa Bay Rays, Boston Red Sox
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $27,996
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $28,515
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $27,996 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 66 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in MLB | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x37d3…709abacked Tampa Bay Rays | 31c | 12,158$3,769 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,768.98 | 82 | 20.7%17 W · 65 L | +1.3wins | +0.02per pick | 19cpaid | -27.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5268…135dbacked Boston Red Sox | 69c | 5,686$3,937 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,749.42 | 11,357 | 52.9%6,003 W · 5,354 L | +209.9wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6d3c…d294backed Boston Red Sox | 69c | 4,009$2,766 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,243 | 5,401 | 50.5%2,726 W · 2,675 L | +17.6wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Boston Red Sox | 68c | 3,418$2,332 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,086.3 | 12,247 | 46.4%5,687 W · 6,560 L | -68.6wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfe78…0319backed Tampa Bay Rays | 31c | 3,155$991 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$990.55 | 10,846 | 51.6%5,594 W · 5,252 L | +137.6wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Boston Red Sox | 69c | 2,228$1,545 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$682.46 | 8,086 | 46.1%3,728 W · 4,358 L | +29.9wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xebe6…9278backed Boston Red Sox | 67c | 1,556$1,042 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$513.34 | 2,104 | 51.9%1,092 W · 1,012 L | +11.9wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +2.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xff34…694bbacked Tampa Bay Rays | 31c | 1,199$367 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$367.21 | 5,234 | 56.8%2,971 W · 2,263 L | +130.4wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9c57…40febacked Boston Red Sox | 69c | 878.3$606 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$272.27 | 215 | 50.2%108 W · 107 L | -6.2wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0e50…2609backed Tampa Bay Rays | 46c | 652.15$300 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$299.99 | 877 | 50.4%442 W · 435 L | +12.4wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +2.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4232…d505backed Tampa Bay Rays | 38c | 525.37$199 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$198.65 | 52 | 50%26 W · 26 L | +1.0wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +7.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0d2d…7ff5backed Boston Red Sox | 68c | 492.27$334 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$158.33 | 8,295 | 47.8%3,966 W · 4,329 L | +72.4wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2f4e…1fb8backed Boston Red Sox | 68c | 477.8$327 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$151.26 | 3,792 | 45.8%1,738 W · 2,054 L | -5.5wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc235…99f8backed Boston Red Sox | 69c | 420$290 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$130.2 | 890 | 53.1%473 W · 417 L | +5.3wins | +0.01per pick | 53cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa697…59d5backed Boston Red Sox | 69c | 410.63$283 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$127.4 | 6,899 | 50.4%3,478 W · 3,421 L | -7.1wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7705…a442backed Tampa Bay Rays | 31c | 362.27$112 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$112.3 | 201 | 38.8%78 W · 123 L | -1.1wins | -0.01per pick | 39cpaid | -6.2%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1e3b…e232backed Boston Red Sox | 67c | 271.55$183 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$88.96 | 2,947 | 51.9%1,529 W · 1,418 L | -34.0wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb7d8…a577backed Boston Red Sox | 70c | 249.5$175 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$74.85 | 28 | 57.1%16 W · 12 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 56cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf7f0…912cbacked Boston Red Sox | 69c | 240$166 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$74.4 | 2,290 | 51%1,167 W · 1,123 L | +23.9wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x32ed…f960backed Boston Red Sox | 56c | 221.69$125 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$96.77 | 6,116 | 55.3%3,385 W · 2,731 L | +344.6wins | +0.06per pick | 50cpaid | +8.6%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xa85b…eb0ebacked Tampa Bay Rays | 33c | 206.97$68 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$68.3 | 293 | 54.9%161 W · 132 L | +9.0wins | +0.03per pick | 52cpaid | +5.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x35e7…8331backed Tampa Bay Rays | 31c | 200$62 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$62 | 1,001 | 48.3%483 W · 518 L | -15.3wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5b63…11a4backed Tampa Bay Rays | 79c | 150.23$118 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$118.25 | 2,021 | 39.5%798 W · 1,223 L | -25.7wins | -0.01per pick | 41cpaid | -14.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbca6…6d74backed Tampa Bay Rays | 31c | 139.55$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.26 | 39 | 38.5%15 W · 24 L | -2.3wins | -0.06per pick | 44cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1c66…e371backed Tampa Bay Rays | 33c | 137.97$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.53 | 362 | 50.3%182 W · 180 L | -0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x066f…b576backed Tampa Bay Rays | 33c | 133.36$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.01 | 3,832 | 42.2%1,619 W · 2,213 L | +0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6303…9556backed Tampa Bay Rays | 32c | 125$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 32 | 37.5%12 W · 20 L | -2.5wins | -0.08per pick | 45cpaid | -22.2%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2f55…8956backed Boston Red Sox | 70c | 114.88$81 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.12 | 148 | 58.8%87 W · 61 L | +3.5wins | +0.02per pick | 56cpaid | +5.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x64d4…f056backed Tampa Bay Rays | 24c | 112.5$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27 | 231 | 40.3%93 W · 138 L | -6.0wins | -0.03per pick | 43cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0f86…404ebacked Boston Red Sox | 68c | 100$68 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32 | 105 | 59%62 W · 43 L | +6.4wins | +0.06per pick | 53cpaid | +10.1%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xbfd7…f0bfbacked Boston Red Sox | 73c | 98.99$72 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.73 | 1,912 | 53%1,014 W · 898 L | +42.5wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5b62…d87fbacked Boston Red Sox | 68c | 93.84$64 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.03 | 1,836 | 50.8%932 W · 904 L | -3.9wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x67d2…a008backed Tampa Bay Rays | 32c | 93.75$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 135 | 65.2%88 W · 47 L | +9.8wins | +0.07per pick | 58cpaid | +15.1%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x5968…3fc4backed Boston Red Sox | 62c | 82$51 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.16 | 289 | 43.3%125 W · 164 L | -11.6wins | -0.04per pick | 47cpaid | -11.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd208…2751backed Tampa Bay Rays | 47c | 81.37$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.5 | 174 | 46%80 W · 94 L | -6.6wins | -0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -9.4%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc546…058ebacked Tampa Bay Rays | 45c | 79.5$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.15 | 5,127 | 54.7%2,805 W · 2,322 L | +232.0wins | +0.05per pick | 50cpaid | +7.8%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x348c…c8efbacked Tampa Bay Rays | 33c | 71.24$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.51 | 104 | 38.5%40 W · 64 L | -7.7wins | -0.07per pick | 46cpaid | -2.6%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x5a21…9318backed Boston Red Sox | 15c | 70.23$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$60 | 439 | 54.7%240 W · 199 L | +30.6wins | +0.07per pick | 48cpaid | +13.9%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x84cf…2f63backed Boston Red Sox | 70c | 62.39$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.72 | 4,553 | 49.2%2,238 W · 2,315 L | -9.6wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbca0…9705backed Boston Red Sox | 58c | 62$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.9 | 8,470 | 52.6%4,459 W · 4,011 L | +510.0wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xda77…683fbacked Boston Red Sox | 61c | 59.45$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.94 | 5,786 | 43.6%2,524 W · 3,262 L | -192.2wins | -0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -19.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x551c…fe91backed Boston Red Sox | 74c | 52.22$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.81 | 1,218 | 55.6%677 W · 541 L | +94.9wins | +0.08per pick | 48cpaid | +13.4%equal weight | 58+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x1df6…cba0backed Boston Red Sox | 57c | 47.61$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.34 | 1,445 | 50.3%727 W · 718 L | -27.6wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -15.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcee6…0a45backed Tampa Bay Rays | 33c | 47$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.51 | 781 | 55.6%434 W · 347 L | +28.9wins | +0.04per pick | 52cpaid | +7.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2b73…174ebacked Boston Red Sox | 72c | 44.07$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.41 | 106 | 49.1%52 W · 54 L | -5.1wins | -0.05per pick | 54cpaid | -14.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x39fc…e2f2backed Boston Red Sox | 40c | 40.24$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.31 | 3,208 | 51.2%1,642 W · 1,566 L | +146.6wins | +0.05per pick | 47cpaid | +8.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8482…3f7abacked Boston Red Sox | 69c | 40$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.4 | 1,062 | 49.2%523 W · 539 L | -11.7wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9565…ec9abacked Boston Red Sox | 69c | 36.42$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.32 | 153 | 49%75 W · 78 L | +4.4wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +12.7%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4836…859bbacked Boston Red Sox | 69c | 33.39$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.48 | 1,172 | 49.1%575 W · 597 L | -7.7wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa9f5…937fbacked Boston Red Sox | 62c | 33.32$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.5 | 2,545 | 45.9%1,168 W · 1,377 L | -73.6wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -14.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdc86…7e77backed Tampa Bay Rays | 33c | 32.18$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.62 | 694 | 47.6%330 W · 364 L | -9.8wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -7.8%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdb83…1e50backed Boston Red Sox | 61c | 30.76$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.12 | 4,478 | 48.8%2,186 W · 2,292 L | -47.7wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x48b9…abe2backed Tampa Bay Rays | 37c | 30$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.1 | 348 | 43.4%151 W · 197 L | +10.3wins | +0.03per pick | 40cpaid | +8.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1980…3340backed Boston Red Sox | 78c | 28.35$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.35 | 324 | 50.9%165 W · 159 L | -2.4wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xba34…c745backed Boston Red Sox | 77c | 17.98$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.13 | 70 | 55.7%39 W · 31 L | +2.8wins | +0.04per pick | 52cpaid | +10.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7e1b…106cbacked Boston Red Sox | 73c | 16.19$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.37 | 86 | 69.8%60 W · 26 L | +3.1wins | +0.04per pick | 66cpaid | +4.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3822…a98cbacked Boston Red Sox | 68c | 16$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.12 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -1.4wins | -0.28per pick | 68cpaid | -42.8%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xcc23…a9f2backed Boston Red Sox | 69c | 16$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.96 | 468 | 54.5%255 W · 213 L | +12.3wins | +0.03per pick | 52cpaid | +6.9%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc7e0…67c9backed Boston Red Sox | 68c | 16$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.12 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | -0.6wins | -0.12per pick | 72cpaid | -15.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1719…ec68backed Boston Red Sox | 69c | 16$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.96 | 721 | 54.2%391 W · 330 L | +20.8wins | +0.03per pick | 51cpaid | +144.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe9b4…f91cbacked Boston Red Sox | 68c | 16$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.12 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | -0.6wins | -0.11per pick | 71cpaid | -13.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x892e…c0cbbacked Boston Red Sox | 68c | 15$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.8 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | -0.6wins | -0.11per pick | 71cpaid | -13.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf58b…fe75backed Boston Red Sox | 68c | 15$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.8 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.8wins | -0.19per pick | 70cpaid | -28.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdc02…fee9backed Boston Red Sox | 68c | 15$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.8 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | -0.6wins | -0.12per pick | 72cpaid | -16.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x224a…a3d5backed Boston Red Sox | 72c | 14.49$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.02 | 4,279 | 47.3%2,024 W · 2,255 L | -83.5wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6383…6e28backed Boston Red Sox | 79c | 12.91$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2.78 | 792 | 55.6%440 W · 352 L | +20.6wins | +0.03per pick | 53cpaid | +6.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 15 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Spread: Tampa Bay Rays (-1.5)this page
- Boston Red Sox vs. Tampa Bay RaysTampa Bay Rays won
- Boston Red Sox vs. Tampa Bay Rays: O/U 10.5Under won
- Boston Red Sox vs. Tampa Bay Rays: O/U 4.5Over won
- Boston Red Sox vs. Tampa Bay Rays: O/U 5.5Over won
- Boston Red Sox vs. Tampa Bay Rays: O/U 6.5Over won
- Boston Red Sox vs. Tampa Bay Rays: O/U 7.5Under won
- Boston Red Sox vs. Tampa Bay Rays: O/U 8.5Under won
- Boston Red Sox vs. Tampa Bay Rays: O/U 9.5Under won
- Spread: Boston Red Sox (-1.5)Tampa Bay Rays won
- Spread: Boston Red Sox (-2.5)Tampa Bay Rays won
- Spread: Boston Red Sox (-3.5)Tampa Bay Rays won
- Spread: Tampa Bay Rays (-2.5)Boston Red Sox won
- Spread: Tampa Bay Rays (-3.5)Boston Red Sox won
- Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: Boston Red Sox vs. Tampa Bay RaysNo won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.