Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 22°C on April 24?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x95c9fc55de8c09a95ff943655be091316b8509437cf82c2f929a08a055499fa7
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $21,520
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $23,151
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $21,520 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 54 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x923c…fa1dbacked No | 1c | 1,181$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.13 | 7 | 0%0 W · 7 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1941…deeabacked No | 2c | 987.61$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.01 | 1,072 | 36.6%392 W · 680 L | +25.9wins | +0.02per pick | 34cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x85d5…bbf0backed No | 24c | 897.8$213 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$213.32 | 640 | 21.7%139 W · 501 L | -23.6wins | -0.04per pick | 25cpaid | -43.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0823…a970backed No | 21c | 606.89$127 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$126.87 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.04per pick | 38cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8d09…143fbacked No | 40c | 471.36$190 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$190.36 | 288 | 29.5%85 W · 203 L | +32.9wins | +0.11per pick | 18cpaid | +101.6%equal weight | 62+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 53c | 404.2$215 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$214.69 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7c63…93d4backed Yes | 66c | 300.65$198 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$102.66 | 10,354 | 37.9%3,919 W · 6,435 L | +417.6wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xcbac…732cbacked No | 9c | 246.83$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.03 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.7wins | +0.14per pick | 46cpaid | +56.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfc41…108fbacked Yes | 60c | 238.95$144 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$94.84 | 98 | 52%51 W · 47 L | +5.3wins | +0.05per pick | 47cpaid | +10.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2e5b…292bbacked No | 10c | 237.88$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.73 | 25 | 32%8 W · 17 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 31cpaid | -43.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe3f6…5078backed No | 48c | 232.85$112 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$111.54 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | -0.2wins | -0.03per pick | 41cpaid | +16.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xab04…b7fdbacked Yes | 77c | 197.15$152 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45.13 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.23per pick | 77cpaid | +29.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbc13…5eb6backed No | 78c | 191.05$149 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$149.02 | 517 | 62.3%322 W · 195 L | -15.5wins | -0.03per pick | 65cpaid | -6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe8a1…1d37backed Yes | 38c | 187.59$71 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$116.38 | 320 | 41.9%134 W · 186 L | +10.0wins | +0.03per pick | 39cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7dde…71f5backed Yes | 79c | 185.56$147 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.69 | 48 | 66.7%32 W · 16 L | +4.4wins | +0.09per pick | 58cpaid | +22.3%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x80b3…e5d9backed Yes | 50c | 185.35$92 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$93.06 | 52 | 48.1%25 W · 27 L | -3.0wins | -0.06per pick | 54cpaid | -13%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc7d0…1f8abacked No | 11c | 179.09$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.7 | 4,347 | 29.7%1,293 W · 3,054 L | +19.8wins | 0.00per pick | 29cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0b87…9414backed No | 31c | 161.27$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.99 | 2,001 | 38.4%768 W · 1,233 L | +1.7wins | 0.00per pick | 38cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked No | 11c | 160.7$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.24 | 2,119 | 36.1%764 W · 1,355 L | -12.1wins | -0.01per pick | 37cpaid | -26.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed No | 27c | 160.04$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.76 | 7,148 | 9.3%666 W · 6,482 L | -1,105.8wins | -0.15per pick | 25cpaid | -75.9%equal weight | 33-0.15 edge/pick |
| 0xf75e…b21abacked Yes | 80c | 135.94$109 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.24 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.20per pick | 80cpaid | +25.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x04a3…3081backed Yes | 71c | 134.67$95 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.71 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | +1.0wins | +0.14per pick | 29cpaid | +5.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x747a…f334backed Yes | 59c | 115.35$68 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47.52 | 36 | 61.1%22 W · 14 L | +4.1wins | +0.11per pick | 50cpaid | +33.8%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xf4b1…ab63backed Yes | 57c | 113.63$65 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48.88 | 385 | 47.5%183 W · 202 L | +16.9wins | +0.04per pick | 43cpaid | +24.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4eb9…83acbacked Yes | 58c | 97.53$57 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.02 | 31 | 54.8%17 W · 14 L | +5.3wins | +0.17per pick | 38cpaid | +41.7%equal weight | 61+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x658b…84bfbacked Yes | 66c | 90.78$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.64 | 204 | 45.1%92 W · 112 L | +14.8wins | +0.07per pick | 38cpaid | +6.3%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x5964…35dfbacked No | 22c | 90$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.2 | 1,279 | 33.6%430 W · 849 L | -6.3wins | 0.00per pick | 34cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x85d2…7479backed Yes | 67c | 89.98$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.69 | 532 | 58.6%312 W · 220 L | +45.1wins | +0.08per pick | 50cpaid | +23.4%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x9196…d934backed Yes | 59c | 73.45$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.45 | 644 | 60.6%390 W · 254 L | +92.2wins | +0.14per pick | 46cpaid | +36.4%equal weight | 65+0.14 edge/pick |
| 0x6ebb…405abacked Yes | 30c | 70.65$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49.7 | 790 | 40.9%323 W · 467 L | +10.1wins | +0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6061…0002backed Yes | 69c | 70.6$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.17 | 30 | 63.3%19 W · 11 L | +2.9wins | +0.10per pick | 54cpaid | +33.9%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd24b…187dbacked Yes | 69c | 67.81$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.2 | 613 | 65.3%400 W · 213 L | +43.8wins | +0.07per pick | 58cpaid | +15.4%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xb49f…1821backed No | 57c | 61.76$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.93 | 1,061 | 53.2%564 W · 497 L | +33.5wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +6.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1361…f12bbacked Yes | 32c | 60.63$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.23 | 1,924 | 33.8%651 W · 1,273 L | +29.2wins | +0.02per pick | 32cpaid | +1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x97ad…9a0dbacked Yes | 76c | 59.46$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.08 | 234 | 63.7%149 W · 85 L | +7.0wins | +0.03per pick | 61cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xeaa4…5c82backed Yes | 62c | 58.14$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.11 | 72 | 63.9%46 W · 26 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 63cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xec25…dec6backed Yes | 80c | 56.84$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.37 | 111 | 72.1%80 W · 31 L | +7.6wins | +0.07per pick | 65cpaid | +8.5%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x2f46…76f5backed Yes | 34c | 55.62$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.95 | 301 | 31.9%96 W · 205 L | +7.0wins | +0.02per pick | 30cpaid | +5.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb70d…253abacked Yes | 52c | 54.49$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.16 | 151 | 52.3%79 W · 72 L | +4.8wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +16.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfba3…4e15backed No | 50c | 50$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 278 | 51.8%144 W · 134 L | +4.3wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2986…b3a9backed No | 30c | 49.98$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 2,995 | 31.4%940 W · 2,055 L | +41.6wins | +0.01per pick | 30cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x652d…46b3backed Yes | 36c | 46.8$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.95 | 618 | 20.7%128 W · 490 L | +36.9wins | +0.06per pick | 15cpaid | -7%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xb06a…52f5backed Yes | 35c | 43.96$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.79 | 5,832 | 36.7%2,138 W · 3,694 L | +211.1wins | +0.04per pick | 33cpaid | -24.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xca1f…d282backed No | 39c | 36.06$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.22 | 1,722 | 64%1,102 W · 620 L | -10.1wins | -0.01per pick | 65cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6a9c…0f59backed Yes | 55c | 34.38$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.47 | 26 | 46.2%12 W · 14 L | -3.8wins | -0.15per pick | 61cpaid | -27.8%equal weight | 42-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x6e41…5e0cbacked Yes | 75c | 32.89$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.12 | 1,061 | 47.9%508 W · 553 L | +32.9wins | +0.03per pick | 45cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6a8d…50f9backed No | 70c | 32.14$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.5 | 9,799 | 44.6%4,367 W · 5,432 L | +256.4wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x04b3…1b7ebacked Yes | 71c | 27.52$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.04 | 1,385 | 65.8%911 W · 474 L | +62.8wins | +0.05per pick | 61cpaid | +11.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe422…4d64backed No | 45c | 25$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.25 | 2,065 | 43.6%900 W · 1,165 L | -11.3wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed No | 78c | 22.13$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.26 | 9,490 | 45.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L | -278.5wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4bcb…634fbacked Yes | 62c | 22.13$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.41 | 215 | 47.4%102 W · 113 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x82ca…3135backed Yes | 71c | 19.1$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.46 | 1,026 | 64%657 W · 369 L | +49.8wins | +0.05per pick | 59cpaid | +4.4%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf528…7e5bbacked No | 70c | 16$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.12 | 1,313 | 76.1%999 W · 314 L | +20.9wins | +0.02per pick | 74cpaid | +2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x65c4…7ea4backed Yes | 79c | 13.64$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2.86 | 559 | 42.6%238 W · 321 L | +3.8wins | +0.01per pick | 42cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 22°C on April 24?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 21°C on April 24?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 23°C on April 24?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 24°C on April 24?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 25°C on April 24?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 26°C or higher on April 24?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.