Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 31°C on June 6?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x9642316518fccda030b0e2b06cb6787d5a26b84d551b9ad24ee9b3aecd2dcec6
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $29,268
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $29,625
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $29,268 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 66 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xd353…9ac2backed No | 2c | 2,517$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 62 | 64.5%40 W · 22 L | +8.5wins | +0.14per pick | 51cpaid | +24%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xe58b…3980backed No | 2c | 2,301$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 10 | 30%3 W · 7 L | -0.2wins | -0.02per pick | 32cpaid | -51.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1838…29b4backed No | 1c | 1,454$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.77 | 963 | 13.7%132 W · 831 L | +33.9wins | +0.04per pick | 10cpaid | +35.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x57ee…8112backed No | 2c | 1,371$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.85 | 1,727 | 18%311 W · 1,416 L | +74.3wins | +0.04per pick | 14cpaid | +11%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x652d…46b3backed No | 2c | 732$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.89 | 618 | 20.7%128 W · 490 L | +36.9wins | +0.06per pick | 15cpaid | -7%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xbb9f…557bbacked No | 16c | 684.86$113 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$113 | 722 | 22.3%161 W · 561 L | -37.3wins | -0.05per pick | 27cpaid | -47.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7300…e52cbacked No | 3c | 653.82$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.78 | 2,214 | 20.7%458 W · 1,756 L | -60.8wins | -0.03per pick | 23cpaid | -25.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xba63…36dcbacked Yes | 32c | 587.17$188 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$399.12 | 402 | 37.1%149 W · 253 L | -8.8wins | -0.02per pick | 39cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4d02…704cbacked Yes | 65c | 533.19$344 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$189.25 | 321 | 32.7%105 W · 216 L | +6.3wins | +0.02per pick | 31cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf51b…ca1bbacked No | 3c | 430.03$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.98 | 1,274 | 34%433 W · 841 L | +46.9wins | +0.04per pick | 30cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4b1a…af71backed No | 5c | 323.46$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 14 | 42.9%6 W · 8 L | -1.9wins | -0.14per pick | 57cpaid | -17%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2c57…372dbacked Yes | 49c | 306.86$152 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$155.13 | 1,531 | 24.2%371 W · 1,160 L | +15.4wins | +0.01per pick | 23cpaid | -10%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb2e4…b7f1backed No | 6c | 303.23$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.96 | 2,065 | 56.3%1,163 W · 902 L | +56.7wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1f66…4c8dbacked No | 23c | 250.35$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58.06 | 2,267 | 18%407 W · 1,860 L | -9.5wins | 0.00per pick | 18cpaid | -14.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0ecc…c745backed No | 44c | 229.72$101 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100.82 | 179 | 47.5%85 W · 94 L | +5.0wins | +0.03per pick | 45cpaid | +6.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe4f0…6450backed No | 7c | 200$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.5 | 141 | 19.1%27 W · 114 L | -3.1wins | -0.02per pick | 21cpaid | -30.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed No | 6c | 188.07$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.11 | 7,148 | 9.3%666 W · 6,482 L | -1,105.8wins | -0.15per pick | 25cpaid | -75.9%equal weight | 33-0.15 edge/pick |
| 0x488c…8c1cbacked Yes | 73c | 170.59$125 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45.6 | 375 | 32.8%123 W · 252 L | +36.4wins | +0.10per pick | 23cpaid | +109.6%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x0484…4830backed No | 50c | 165.85$83 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$83.17 | 5,186 | 47.2%2,447 W · 2,739 L | +66.7wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3c70…34c4backed No | 41c | 141.12$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58.31 | 168 | 47.6%80 W · 88 L | +4.9wins | +0.03per pick | 45cpaid | +5.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb0d6…7475backed No | 10c | 124.34$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.91 | 1,525 | 52.6%802 W · 723 L | +2.3wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -10.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x942e…be27backed No | 15c | 123.81$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.3 | 2,010 | 61.5%1,237 W · 773 L | -1.1wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed Yes | 32c | 105.22$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$72.08 | 9,490 | 45.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L | -278.5wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x83cd…e218backed Yes | 69c | 101.01$70 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.01 | 94 | 48.9%46 W · 48 L | -3.4wins | -0.04per pick | 53cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6868…5198backed Yes | 30c | 100$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$70 | 1,401 | 27.3%383 W · 1,018 L | +69.5wins | +0.05per pick | 22cpaid | +18.7%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xcf7c…b00dbacked No | 63c | 99.96$63 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$62.98 | 786 | 63.6%500 W · 286 L | -0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 64cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x79cf…3e28backed No | 80c | 99$79 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$79.2 | 5 | 80%4 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.03per pick | 77cpaid | +4.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb0a5…0a36backed No | 66c | 94.2$62 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$61.99 | 2,086 | 51.8%1,080 W · 1,006 L | -45.0wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xebb1…e7afbacked Yes | 38c | 86.65$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$53.62 | 575 | 45%259 W · 316 L | +26.6wins | +0.05per pick | 40cpaid | +13%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4174…18fabacked No | 20c | 71.3$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.44 | 1,079 | 61.2%660 W · 419 L | -5.7wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x59ce…e3f0backed No | 61c | 69.53$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.68 | 32 | 53.1%17 W · 15 L | -2.2wins | -0.07per pick | 60cpaid | -14.9%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3d1d…9e61backed No | 29c | 60$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.52 | 2,870 | 64.8%1,860 W · 1,010 L | -32.8wins | -0.01per pick | 66cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa36b…1d89backed Yes | 36c | 59.56$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.12 | 555 | 38.4%213 W · 342 L | -14.1wins | -0.03per pick | 41cpaid | -6.8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6854…67d0backed No | 59c | 58.09$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.38 | 617 | 52.8%326 W · 291 L | -1.5wins | 0.00per pick | 53cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4d07…2b94backed No | 72c | 55.38$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 174 | 43.7%76 W · 98 L | -8.6wins | -0.05per pick | 49cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3972…a677backed No | 43c | 50.23$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.6 | 817 | 56.4%461 W · 356 L | -23.0wins | -0.03per pick | 59cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc71b…e265backed No | 61c | 50$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.5 | 481 | 49.5%238 W · 243 L | -26.0wins | -0.05per pick | 55cpaid | -17.2%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4dc1…caebbacked No | 75c | 49.99$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.52 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | -1.5wins | -0.21per pick | 64cpaid | -41.1%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc3e4…f053backed No | 43c | 47.86$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.58 | 180 | 46.1%83 W · 97 L | +2.8wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed No | 38c | 44.85$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.95 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0x9d39…099abacked No | 68c | 44.12$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 297 | 51.9%154 W · 143 L | -6.2wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfd6e…4409backed Yes | 29c | 43.41$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.9 | 26 | 50%13 W · 13 L | +2.6wins | +0.10per pick | 40cpaid | +36.4%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0514…4fefbacked Yes | 35c | 40$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26 | 195 | 31.3%61 W · 134 L | -2.1wins | -0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd9b5…9db1backed No | 43c | 38.16$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.58 | 886 | 50.2%445 W · 441 L | -14.4wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1dda…23bbbacked No | 67c | 37.05$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.82 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -1.0wins | -0.25per pick | 50cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0b18…2639backed Yes | 36c | 33.99$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.76 | 438 | 42%184 W · 254 L | -14.7wins | -0.03per pick | 45cpaid | -9.4%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6f15…1277backed Yes | 77c | 32.68$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.65 | 22 | 31.8%7 W · 15 L | -1.1wins | -0.05per pick | 37cpaid | -22.5%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdd23…fababacked Yes | 33c | 31$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.77 | 157 | 22.9%36 W · 121 L | -1.4wins | -0.01per pick | 24cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd1a6…1507backed No | 38c | 30.81$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.86 | 2,626 | 54%1,418 W · 1,208 L | -56.4wins | -0.02per pick | 56cpaid | -19.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x28bf…4a4ebacked No | 68c | 30$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.29 | 5,389 | 56%3,017 W · 2,372 L | -120.8wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x764b…6badbacked No | 67c | 30$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.1 | 3,755 | 61.1%2,293 W · 1,462 L | -36.5wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc120…a7e3backed No | 44c | 30$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.2 | 1,299 | 54.1%703 W · 596 L | +24.7wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4466…446ebacked No | 75c | 26.11$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.71 | 10 | 80%8 W · 2 L | +0.9wins | +0.09per pick | 71cpaid | +11.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd988…2868backed Yes | 77c | 25.69$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.02 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.22per pick | 72cpaid | -34.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2698…2941backed Yes | 75c | 24.95$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.22 | 1,011 | 61.2%619 W · 392 L | +14.2wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa49b…7054backed No | 71c | 23.01$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.34 | 7,481 | 37.5%2,808 W · 4,673 L | +97.4wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x38e2…2909backed No | 73c | 21.92$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16 | 3,479 | 53%1,845 W · 1,634 L | +72.1wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4f6a…f60cbacked Yes | 65c | 21.89$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.66 | 294 | 27.9%82 W · 212 L | +18.6wins | +0.06per pick | 22cpaid | +42.7%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x0739…aba8backed Yes | 67c | 21.08$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.9 | 373 | 55%205 W · 168 L | +20.5wins | +0.06per pick | 49cpaid | +12%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf2cf…464bbacked No | 68c | 20$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.65 | 1,115 | 63.4%707 W · 408 L | +29.7wins | +0.03per pick | 61cpaid | +4.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9f7a…07a0backed No | 66c | 20$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.2 | 90 | 66.7%60 W · 30 L | +3.7wins | +0.04per pick | 63cpaid | +4.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2298…9f33backed No | 80c | 20$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.9 | 351 | 68.4%240 W · 111 L | -4.9wins | -0.01per pick | 70cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x91f4…d093backed No | 67c | 20$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.4 | 150 | 32%48 W · 102 L | -3.4wins | -0.02per pick | 34cpaid | -11%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x32b9…9a9cbacked No | 54c | 20$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.8 | 649 | 60.2%391 W · 258 L | -17.0wins | -0.03per pick | 63cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcbb5…2de0backed No | 66c | 19.99$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.19 | 11 | 54.5%6 W · 5 L | -0.2wins | -0.02per pick | 56cpaid | -23.2%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2f9f…894fbacked Yes | 79c | 18.78$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.94 | 13 | 61.5%8 W · 5 L | +1.3wins | +0.10per pick | 51cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 31°C on June 6?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 30°C or below on June 6?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 32°C on June 6?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 33°C on June 6?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 34°C on June 6?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.