TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

MLB · resolved market

Pittsburgh Pirates vs. Cincinnati Reds: O/U 7.5

Rebuilt .

Winning outcome
Overof Over, Under
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$7,010
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$8,467

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $7,010 — the venue’s figure.

Open this market on Polymarket

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 13 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in MLB
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x5268…135dbacked Over58c1,110$643 inWon+$467.4911,35752.9%6,003 W · 5,354 L+209.9wins+0.02per pick51cpaid-0.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xf7f0…912cbacked Under42c1,024$430 inLost-$430.082,29051%1,167 W · 1,123 L+23.9wins+0.01per pick50cpaid+1.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xbca0…9705backed Under39c473.33$185 inLost-$184.68,47052.6%4,459 W · 4,011 L+510.0wins+0.06per pick47cpaid+5.3%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x1a2f…647abacked Under8c200$16 inLost-$1682636.6%302 W · 524 L-6.1wins-0.01per pick37cpaid-5.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x066f…b576backed Under44c85.8$38 inLost-$37.753,83242.2%1,619 W · 2,213 L+0.5wins0.00per pick42cpaid+0.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x08ae…3a89backed Over56c66.66$37 inWon+$29.334257.1%24 W · 18 L+1.8wins+0.04per pick53cpaid+8.1%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xf593…9553backed Under43c64.33$28 inLost-$27.892,94547.6%1,401 W · 1,544 L+3.8wins0.00per pick47cpaid+0.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x9b11…5375backed Under40c49.35$20 inLost-$19.741,77749.5%880 W · 897 L+25.6wins+0.01per pick48cpaid-0.1%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x36b3…e421backed Under40c30.23$12 inLost-$12.0940341.4%167 W · 236 L-20.0wins-0.05per pick46cpaid-13.3%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x3563…a0a2backed Under45c25.65$12 inLost-$11.652,22355.4%1,231 W · 992 L+73.9wins+0.03per pick52cpaid+2.7%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x3654…1b78backed Over58c20$12 inWon+$8.426857.1%153 W · 115 L+4.2wins+0.02per pick56cpaid-1.3%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x7dae…7199backed Over60c19.63$12 inWon+$7.8513151.1%67 W · 64 L-1.7wins-0.01per pick52cpaid-1.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x84cf…2f63backed Over56c19.14$11 inWon+$8.424,55349.2%2,238 W · 2,315 L-9.6wins0.00per pick49cpaid-2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 13 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.