NHL · resolved market
Spread: Lightning (-1.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x969df70d99673f9c3c900fc8d12a2f94f522d5ca6c8f30efe479adf3e1395b13
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Lightningof Lightning, Jets
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NHLevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $11,842
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $11,934
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $11,842 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 44 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NHL is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NHL | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xaf35…b5eabacked Lightning | 42c | 6,767$2,842 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,924.89 | 114 | 45.6%52 W · 62 L | +6.0wins | +0.05per pick | 40cpaid | +11.4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd4da…3175backed Jets | 58c | 2,397$1,390 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,390.39 | 282 | 51.8%146 W · 136 L | +8.9wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +4.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8753…85adbacked Jets | 58c | 1,900$1,102 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,102 | 619 | 59.1%366 W · 253 L | +17.9wins | +0.03per pick | 56cpaid | +4.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf41a…ea2bbacked Jets | 58c | 999.98$580 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$579.99 | 919 | 45.6%419 W · 500 L | -27.3wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe60a…6a47backed Lightning | 42c | 727.99$306 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$421.8 | 1,948 | 49.4%962 W · 986 L | +24.9wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9405…c071backed Jets | 59c | 658.31$388 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$388.4 | 76 | 47.4%36 W · 40 L | -4.2wins | -0.06per pick | 53cpaid | -12.5%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xdbb9…ed8dbacked Jets | 56c | 572.68$321 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$320.7 | 1,230 | 53.7%661 W · 569 L | -9.1wins | -0.01per pick | 54cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x889c…e375backed Lightning | 44c | 568.18$250 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$318.18 | 295 | 51.9%153 W · 142 L | -1.0wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | +0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7705…a442backed Lightning | 41c | 499.88$205 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$294.93 | 572 | 38.1%218 W · 354 L | -4.2wins | -0.01per pick | 39cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x29b1…f737backed Lightning | 42c | 480$202 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$278.4 | 284 | 47.9%136 W · 148 L | +6.8wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb552…94a8backed Jets | 58c | 473$274 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$274.34 | 619 | 53.8%333 W · 286 L | +13.2wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +4.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xba8d…009dbacked Jets | 58c | 441$254 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$253.8 | 141 | 40.4%57 W · 84 L | -3.8wins | -0.03per pick | 43cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5e5b…a569backed Jets | 60c | 400$240 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$240 | 226 | 55.8%126 W · 100 L | -4.7wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xee61…debfbacked Jets | 58c | 371.75$214 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$214.49 | 2,894 | 51.3%1,484 W · 1,410 L | +58.0wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +4.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe624…2928backed Lightning | 41c | 366.44$151 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$215.6 | 226 | 55.3%125 W · 101 L | +17.7wins | +0.08per pick | 47cpaid | +15.5%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x8415…dfe1backed Lightning | 40c | 262$105 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$157.2 | 41 | 48.8%20 W · 21 L | -0.7wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x83a3…6292backed Jets | 59c | 254.24$150 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$150 | 811 | 57.2%464 W · 347 L | -5.8wins | -0.01per pick | 58cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2a9b…7303backed Jets | 58c | 238.09$138 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$138.09 | 91 | 50.5%46 W · 45 L | -1.2wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x507e…beaebacked Jets | 55c | 226$125 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$125.04 | 2,664 | 51.6%1,375 W · 1,289 L | +58.0wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9c76…c926backed Jets | 57c | 222.62$127 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$126.89 | 583 | 52.1%304 W · 279 L | +1.9wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0c9e…bba8backed Lightning | 45c | 213$96 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$117.24 | 38 | 42.1%16 W · 22 L | -1.9wins | -0.05per pick | 47cpaid | -14%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5487…a014backed Jets | 58c | 196$114 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$113.68 | 849 | 53.8%457 W · 392 L | +20.9wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc81a…c368backed Jets | 58c | 120$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$69.6 | 244 | 42.6%104 W · 140 L | -9.2wins | -0.04per pick | 46cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf7a3…ad9ebacked Lightning | 43c | 116.28$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$66.28 | 177 | 55.9%99 W · 78 L | +4.6wins | +0.03per pick | 53cpaid | +5.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbd72…cc45backed Lightning | 43c | 116.28$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$66.28 | 39 | 23.1%9 W · 30 L | -2.5wins | -0.07per pick | 30cpaid | -29.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Lightning | 75c | 116.13$87 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.03 | 2,112 | 42.9%907 W · 1,205 L | -10.1wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6008…a80bbacked Jets | 59c | 101.69$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 786 | 51.8%407 W · 379 L | -16.6wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3c04…2e2dbacked Jets | 59c | 86.44$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51 | 542 | 60.3%327 W · 215 L | +13.3wins | +0.02per pick | 58cpaid | +4.9%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7216…0d67backed Jets | 58c | 85.99$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.87 | 80 | 42.5%34 W · 46 L | -2.6wins | -0.03per pick | 46cpaid | -14.5%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xecfc…cd05backed Lightning | 43c | 59$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.63 | 868 | 52.4%455 W · 413 L | +7.0wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc42c…42a1backed Lightning | 42c | 58$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.64 | 73 | 54.8%40 W · 33 L | +2.6wins | +0.04per pick | 51cpaid | +6.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe649…4e37backed Jets | 59c | 50.9$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 317 | 53.3%169 W · 148 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 53cpaid | 0%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbbe2…6158backed Jets | 60c | 50$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 401 | 62.1%249 W · 152 L | +7.4wins | +0.02per pick | 60cpaid | +3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3bc5…7ac4backed Lightning | 42c | 47.62$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.62 | 94 | 52.1%49 W · 45 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0e51…e4f7backed Jets | 59c | 42.81$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.26 | 153 | 49%75 W · 78 L | -2.5wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -6.2%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x785f…e3d9backed Lightning | 44c | 36.74$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.61 | 262 | 43.5%114 W · 148 L | -9.2wins | -0.04per pick | 47cpaid | -9.2%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4b37…d7e9backed Jets | 58c | 36.21$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21 | 83 | 51.8%43 W · 40 L | -2.2wins | -0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -9.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x973e…22ebbacked Jets | 60c | 35$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21 | 690 | 61.6%425 W · 265 L | +15.7wins | +0.02per pick | 59cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa307…8ea3backed Jets | 49c | 34.14$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.73 | 39 | 30.8%12 W · 27 L | -6.4wins | -0.16per pick | 47cpaid | -41.9%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x200f…7a96backed Jets | 58c | 29.4$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.05 | 860 | 49.2%423 W · 437 L | +1.9wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3494…04f4backed Jets | 58c | 25.42$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.74 | 94 | 58.5%55 W · 39 L | +5.6wins | +0.06per pick | 53cpaid | +9.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x051b…09d4backed Jets | 58c | 24.08$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 196 | 52.6%103 W · 93 L | -4.9wins | -0.03per pick | 55cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1d94…9100backed Jets | 58c | 23.5$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.63 | 1,530 | 51.7%791 W · 739 L | +22.5wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +3.3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9731…9b35backed Jets | 58c | 22.75$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.2 | 939 | 53.6%503 W · 436 L | +29.6wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NHL and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 4 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Spread: Lightning (-1.5)this page
- Jets vs. LightningLightning won
- Jets vs. Lightning: O/U 5.5Under won
- Jets vs. Lightning: O/U 6.5Under won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.