NHL · resolved market
Jets vs. Lightning: O/U 5.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xa233241e024c08ff6c2d5b36c7ade9c3130f95cb2bded27d3cd218daf37168a0
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Underof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NHLevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $31,270
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $32,872
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $31,270 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 67 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NHL is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NHL | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xdc87…7ab6backed Under | 50c | 13,347$6,654 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6,693.28 | 561 | 52%292 W · 269 L | +7.1wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe60a…6a47backed Over | 50c | 4,236$2,119 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,119.12 | 1,948 | 49.4%962 W · 986 L | +24.9wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xef23…5b60backed Over | 50c | 4,109$2,054 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,054.33 | 642 | 42.2%271 W · 371 L | -6.1wins | -0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf988…d63bbacked Over | 50c | 2,050$1,025 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,025 | 51 | 49%25 W · 26 L | -0.6wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -10.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd48a…6e90backed Under | 55c | 2,005$1,100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$905.45 | 852 | 50.2%428 W · 424 L | -26.2wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5e82…7670backed Over | 50c | 1,804$902 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$902 | 40 | 45%18 W · 22 L | -1.5wins | -0.04per pick | 49cpaid | -10.3%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xee61…debfbacked Under | 51c | 1,315$666 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$649.1 | 2,894 | 51.3%1,484 W · 1,410 L | +58.0wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +4.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb5e7…3c1abacked Over | 49c | 1,263$619 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$618.97 | 751 | 55.8%419 W · 332 L | +12.1wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa632…4c96backed Over | 50c | 1,200$600 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$600 | 29 | 44.8%13 W · 16 L | -1.6wins | -0.05per pick | 50cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5c54…da2cbacked Under | 49c | 1,131$554 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$577.22 | 25 | 56%14 W · 11 L | +1.5wins | +0.06per pick | 50cpaid | +4.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5487…a014backed Under | 50c | 1,107$554 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$553.57 | 849 | 53.8%457 W · 392 L | +20.9wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9405…c071backed Over | 50c | 1,000$500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$500 | 76 | 47.4%36 W · 40 L | -4.2wins | -0.06per pick | 53cpaid | -12.5%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xde04…fa37backed Over | 45c | 996.8$448 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$448.49 | 2,314 | 46.5%1,075 W · 1,239 L | -7.5wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x198f…c419backed Under | 48c | 980.79$471 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$510.01 | 21 | 61.9%13 W · 8 L | +3.1wins | +0.15per pick | 47cpaid | +31.2%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x785f…e3d9backed Over | 52c | 900.27$471 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$471.24 | 262 | 43.5%114 W · 148 L | -9.2wins | -0.04per pick | 47cpaid | -9.2%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x19ed…6dc8backed Under | 50c | 812.81$410 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$402.86 | 147 | 53.7%79 W · 68 L | -1.0wins | -0.01per pick | 54cpaid | -4.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf41a…ea2bbacked Over | 49c | 799.99$392 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$392 | 919 | 45.6%419 W · 500 L | -27.3wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x486f…b325backed Under | 50c | 750.41$379 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$371.46 | 43 | 58.1%25 W · 18 L | +3.4wins | +0.08per pick | 50cpaid | +8.5%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf68a…5b1bbacked Over | 49c | 689.29$338 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$337.75 | 1,441 | 49.2%709 W · 732 L | +6.5wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2f2b…0f9abacked Over | 52c | 630$328 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$327.6 | 339 | 50.1%170 W · 169 L | -1.8wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x507e…beaebacked Over | 48c | 601.18$289 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$288.56 | 2,664 | 51.6%1,375 W · 1,289 L | +58.0wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4a86…d3e0backed Under | 50c | 600$300 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$300 | 916 | 53.9%494 W · 422 L | +39.6wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | +8.7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfff3…e2c5backed Under | 37c | 535$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$335 | 51 | 49%25 W · 26 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | +16.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x17bf…5a53backed Over | 61c | 508.97$310 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$309.91 | 29 | 17.2%5 W · 24 L | -6.9wins | -0.24per pick | 41cpaid | -65.6%equal weight | 36-0.13 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Over | 51c | 401.66$205 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$204.85 | 2,112 | 42.9%907 W · 1,205 L | -10.1wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc8ab…4f9cbacked Over | 50c | 400$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 160 | 56.3%90 W · 70 L | +11.6wins | +0.07per pick | 49cpaid | +15.3%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xd6a3…9489backed Under | 36c | 351.45$126 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$225.23 | 629 | 51.2%322 W · 307 L | +18.5wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | +1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5b20…99e9backed Over | 50c | 320$160 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$160 | 1,093 | 51.8%566 W · 527 L | +14.2wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +3.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa6a8…5009backed Over | 41c | 311$129 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$128.5 | 1,406 | 47%661 W · 745 L | +58.6wins | +0.04per pick | 43cpaid | -0.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xecfc…cd05backed Over | 51c | 230$117 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$116.88 | 868 | 52.4%455 W · 413 L | +7.0wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x24ca…5829backed Under | 50c | 215.8$107 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$108.8 | 70 | 60%42 W · 28 L | +4.8wins | +0.07per pick | 53cpaid | +8.8%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2652…2a1dbacked Over | 50c | 215$107 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$107.5 | 1,679 | 54.4%914 W · 765 L | +36.6wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +2.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0a2d…4f43backed Over | 50c | 200$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 76 | 53.9%41 W · 35 L | +3.0wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | +5.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x34fa…f491backed Over | 51c | 198$101 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100.98 | 599 | 50.4%302 W · 297 L | +20.0wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | +7.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3078…0389backed Under | 48c | 196.03$94 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$101.93 | 607 | 41%249 W · 358 L | +5.3wins | +0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -0.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x727d…1589backed Over | 53c | 195.97$103 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$103 | 104 | 29.8%31 W · 73 L | -5.6wins | -0.05per pick | 35cpaid | -31.1%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa66d…0859backed Under | 50c | 195.55$98 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$97.06 | 67 | 43.3%29 W · 38 L | -4.9wins | -0.07per pick | 51cpaid | +16.1%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7df7…01c5backed Under | 49c | 142.86$70 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$72.86 | 5 | 80%4 W · 1 L | +1.5wins | +0.30per pick | 50cpaid | +65.9%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2fd5…ef85backed Over | 51c | 139.86$72 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$71.8 | 136 | 47.1%64 W · 72 L | -3.0wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5d9e…e0e3backed Over | 52c | 129.96$68 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$67.68 | 266 | 57.1%152 W · 114 L | +4.2wins | +0.02per pick | 56cpaid | +0.1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6008…a80bbacked Under | 50c | 120$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$60 | 786 | 51.8%407 W · 379 L | -16.6wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcfdb…f0a5backed Under | 48c | 104.96$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$54.58 | 12 | 66.7%8 W · 4 L | +1.8wins | +0.15per pick | 51cpaid | +31.7%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x27d2…b0f8backed Over | 50c | 100$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 27 | 51.9%14 W · 13 L | +0.4wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3dc1…e318backed Under | 50c | 98.24$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49.12 | 162 | 54.9%89 W · 73 L | +5.8wins | +0.04per pick | 51cpaid | +5.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x30ad…6a69backed Over | 51c | 98.04$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 231 | 58%134 W · 97 L | +8.1wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | +5.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe624…2928backed Over | 50c | 85$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.5 | 226 | 55.3%125 W · 101 L | +17.7wins | +0.08per pick | 47cpaid | +15.5%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xb858…7dc3backed Over | 51c | 80$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.8 | 128 | 55.5%71 W · 57 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe401…7b88backed Over | 49c | 78.24$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.15 | 3,704 | 50.5%1,871 W · 1,833 L | +105.5wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfc33…9636backed Over | 48c | 73$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.85 | 59 | 42.4%25 W · 34 L | -3.6wins | -0.06per pick | 48cpaid | -17.2%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x602d…3534backed Under | 51c | 68.63$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.63 | 432 | 56.5%244 W · 188 L | +5.8wins | +0.01per pick | 55cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0e51…e4f7backed Over | 50c | 61.58$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.79 | 153 | 49%75 W · 78 L | -2.5wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -6.2%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaeba…d2d8backed Over | 50c | 60$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 91 | 49.5%45 W · 46 L | -2.0wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdbdd…a5debacked Over | 21c | 59.97$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.59 | 1,846 | 57.2%1,055 W · 791 L | +85.0wins | +0.05per pick | 53cpaid | +7.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe88b…fa5abacked Under | 36c | 50$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32 | 93 | 50.5%47 W · 46 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3f02…184fbacked Under | 51c | 49.2$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.11 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.8wins | +0.21per pick | 54cpaid | +39.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0674…2034backed Under | 49c | 40.82$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.82 | 18 | 61.1%11 W · 7 L | +1.9wins | +0.10per pick | 51cpaid | +17%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe1aa…071abacked Over | 50c | 40$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 45 | 44.4%20 W · 25 L | -2.3wins | -0.05per pick | 49cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8918…f4e4backed Under | 51c | 39.22$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.22 | 22 | 50%11 W · 11 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -5.5%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfa15…95e3backed Under | 51c | 36$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.64 | 69 | 56.5%39 W · 30 L | +3.1wins | +0.05per pick | 52cpaid | +10.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x200f…7a96backed Over | 51c | 30.99$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.81 | 860 | 49.2%423 W · 437 L | +1.9wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe6b2…fba9backed Under | 49c | 30.82$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.82 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | -1.3wins | -0.18per pick | 47cpaid | -41.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb402…d82bbacked Under | 52c | 28.85$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.85 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | +0.4wins | +0.06per pick | 51cpaid | +10.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0d21…08d3backed Under | 51c | 28.26$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.93 | 69 | 59.4%41 W · 28 L | +5.4wins | +0.08per pick | 52cpaid | +13.8%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x42b5…b5b6backed Under | 46c | 27.78$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15 | 1,377 | 49.1%676 W · 701 L | +39.2wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +5.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8aab…8d40backed Under | 50c | 21.06$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.53 | 53 | 45.3%24 W · 29 L | -3.4wins | -0.06per pick | 52cpaid | -15.1%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x67c3…c431backed Over | 50c | 20$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.50per pick | 50cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x68cd…e8d7backed Over | 50c | 20$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 28 | 46.4%13 W · 15 L | -1.1wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -9.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NHL and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 4 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Jets vs. Lightning: O/U 5.5this page
- Jets vs. LightningLightning won
- Jets vs. Lightning: O/U 6.5Under won
- Spread: Lightning (-1.5)Lightning won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.