Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Manila be 33°C on July 23?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x96b39a86d6dde588f85ecc9d066560858ce7b3eb428676ae0f58e100d98e35a3
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $6,401
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $6,032
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $6,401 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 49 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x896e…b02abacked Yes | 49c | 426.59$210 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$210.17 | 23 | 47.8%11 W · 12 L | +1.4wins | +0.06per pick | 42cpaid | +5.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd498…a6c5backed No | 49c | 319.46$157 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$162.84 | 1,710 | 47.8%818 W · 892 L | -48.2wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x46f1…701fbacked No | 50c | 305.88$154 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$152.22 | 2,877 | 55.3%1,590 W · 1,287 L | -59.3wins | -0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x43cb…84dfbacked Yes | 17c | 297.71$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.12 | 6,787 | 39.1%2,654 W · 4,133 L | +256.4wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8fbd…a959backed Yes | 32c | 274.43$89 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$88.73 | 8,952 | 26.7%2,392 W · 6,560 L | +120.3wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd23f…94a1backed No | 70c | 252.88$177 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$75.71 | 2,617 | 59.5%1,556 W · 1,061 L | -41.5wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0b98…8595backed Yes | 7c | 221.36$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.15 | 299 | 13%39 W · 260 L | -5.0wins | -0.02per pick | 15cpaid | -11%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd90e…03b6backed No | 48c | 192.66$92 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$101.14 | 1,148 | 49.6%569 W · 579 L | -34.3wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x17bd…f0babacked Yes | 45c | 173$78 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$77.85 | 112 | 50.9%57 W · 55 L | +6.4wins | +0.06per pick | 45cpaid | -1%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xbd14…76b4backed No | 51c | 170.27$87 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$83.43 | 180 | 43.3%78 W · 102 L | -5.3wins | -0.03per pick | 46cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x30fb…7db4backed No | 49c | 124.94$62 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$63.1 | 4,117 | 47.6%1,958 W · 2,159 L | -158.0wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6786…c8ffbacked No | 58c | 122.6$71 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51.84 | 324 | 40.1%130 W · 194 L | +12.6wins | +0.04per pick | 36cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5028…91c5backed No | 44c | 104$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$58.36 | 886 | 28.9%256 W · 630 L | -22.6wins | -0.03per pick | 31cpaid | -41.6%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2ef2…7f72backed Yes | 50c | 102.51$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.68 | 191 | 37.2%71 W · 120 L | -5.4wins | -0.03per pick | 40cpaid | -6.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x61f9…8055backed No | 47c | 100$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$53 | 905 | 55.6%503 W · 402 L | -1.3wins | 0.00per pick | 56cpaid | -1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd296…9963backed Yes | 36c | 100$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.39 | 42 | 40.5%17 W · 25 L | +0.8wins | +0.02per pick | 39cpaid | +3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5e80…22b8backed No | 50c | 100$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50 | 135 | 27.4%37 W · 98 L | +2.1wins | +0.02per pick | 26cpaid | +12%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb0c8…fe7fbacked No | 64c | 99.51$64 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.92 | 4,142 | 54.1%2,241 W · 1,901 L | -16.6wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2df9…4534backed No | 48c | 98.76$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51.81 | 257 | 47.5%122 W · 135 L | +1.0wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | +4.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 50c | 96.66$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48.31 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x28bf…4a4ebacked No | 75c | 95$71 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.64 | 5,389 | 56%3,017 W · 2,372 L | -120.8wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7df0…0dfebacked No | 52c | 80.24$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.51 | 3,642 | 65.9%2,400 W · 1,242 L | +33.6wins | +0.01per pick | 65cpaid | +1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xec62…9191backed Yes | 47c | 75.01$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35 | 1,102 | 40.7%448 W · 654 L | +18.7wins | +0.02per pick | 39cpaid | +3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0380…073dbacked No | 54c | 68.08$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.18 | 4,257 | 65.3%2,779 W · 1,478 L | +17.6wins | 0.00per pick | 65cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3a1f…4877backed Yes | 59c | 67.11$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.61 | 801 | 30.8%247 W · 554 L | +1.2wins | 0.00per pick | 31cpaid | -2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcb32…79aabacked No | 55c | 65$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.25 | 1,187 | 62.2%738 W · 449 L | +27.8wins | +0.02per pick | 60cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa834…1c25backed Yes | 31c | 64.18$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.84 | 1,048 | 34.5%362 W · 686 L | +24.7wins | +0.02per pick | 32cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe040…824fbacked No | 57c | 60$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26 | 4,267 | 53.4%2,279 W · 1,988 L | +156.0wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x764b…6badbacked No | 51c | 52.53$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.89 | 3,755 | 61.1%2,293 W · 1,462 L | -36.5wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x471d…32cebacked Yes | 51c | 50.12$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.56 | 166 | 56.6%94 W · 72 L | +6.2wins | +0.04per pick | 53cpaid | +7.5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x11b0…f988backed Yes | 51c | 50.12$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.56 | 155 | 56.1%87 W · 68 L | +4.6wins | +0.03per pick | 53cpaid | +6.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3b8e…aa69backed Yes | 63c | 50$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.5 | 308 | 49%151 W · 157 L | -8.3wins | -0.03per pick | 52cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4afb…b3d9backed Yes | 52c | 50$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26 | 27 | 37%10 W · 17 L | -0.5wins | -0.02per pick | 39cpaid | -11%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6780…41ccbacked Yes | 47c | 49.99$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.69 | 270 | 51.1%138 W · 132 L | -13.3wins | -0.05per pick | 56cpaid | -6.1%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7300…e52cbacked No | 49c | 44.76$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.83 | 2,214 | 20.7%458 W · 1,756 L | -60.8wins | -0.03per pick | 23cpaid | -25.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe5c2…6b76backed No | 76c | 44.18$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.65 | 80 | 68.8%55 W · 25 L | -3.0wins | -0.04per pick | 72cpaid | -5.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1b72…42b9backed Yes | 43c | 41$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.63 | 807 | 35.4%286 W · 521 L | +1.7wins | 0.00per pick | 35cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb9eb…e3e8backed No | 60c | 40.71$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.28 | 88 | 71.6%63 W · 25 L | +0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 71cpaid | +5.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5a21…9318backed No | 56c | 40$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.6 | 6,592 | 53.1%3,503 W · 3,089 L | +400.2wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xdca4…e93dbacked No | 52c | 40$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.2 | 2,501 | 45.5%1,138 W · 1,363 L | +26.8wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | +2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb335…aac1backed Yes | 25c | 40$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 95 | 38.9%37 W · 58 L | +1.0wins | +0.01per pick | 38cpaid | 0%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb0a5…0a36backed No | 60c | 39.7$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.05 | 2,086 | 51.8%1,080 W · 1,006 L | -45.0wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6120…f1febacked Yes | 44c | 35$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.4 | 827 | 42.8%354 W · 473 L | +2.7wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x41e5…e283backed No | 74c | 34.15$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.85 | 1,282 | 56.7%727 W · 555 L | -28.5wins | -0.02per pick | 59cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5c38…f194backed No | 54c | 30$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.8 | 2,517 | 47.2%1,188 W · 1,329 L | +52.6wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2706…c6bebacked No | 59c | 26.7$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.02 | 318 | 66%210 W · 108 L | -1.7wins | -0.01per pick | 67cpaid | -0.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed No | 79c | 24.99$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.21 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0xae7a…25eabacked Yes | 50c | 20$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 927 | 61.7%572 W · 355 L | +5.5wins | +0.01per pick | 61cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9f20…12c3backed No | 78c | 17$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.67 | 4,104 | 56.6%2,322 W · 1,782 L | +50.5wins | +0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Manila be 33°C on July 23?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Manila be 31°C on July 23?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Manila be 32°C on July 23?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Manila be 34°C on July 23?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Manila be 35°C on July 23?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.