Tennis · resolved market
US Open: Ugo Blanchet vs Tomas Machac
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x96bf4892147c56685adb36ea682d72b0e7de016a8580f83ad8c4a2948902dcf2
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Machacof Blanchet, Machac
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Tennisevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $54,485
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $56,534
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $54,485 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 33 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Tennis is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Tennis | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x1126…6e7abacked Blanchet | 18c | 24,338$4,420 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$4,419.8 | 19 | 26.3%5 W · 14 L | -2.3wins | -0.12per pick | 38cpaid | -48%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x60a9…b5a8backed Blanchet | 19c | 8,177$1,520 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,520 | 18 | 22.2%4 W · 14 L | +1.1wins | +0.06per pick | 16cpaid | -12.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x197f…dc8dbacked Machac | 78c | 3,000$2,340 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$660 | 34 | 41.2%14 W · 20 L | -3.0wins | -0.09per pick | 50cpaid | -22.3%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x898b…8d76backed Blanchet | 12c | 2,944$360 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$360 | 70 | 28.6%20 W · 50 L | -2.8wins | -0.04per pick | 33cpaid | -17.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3868…5683backed Blanchet | 22c | 2,000$446 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$445.92 | 73 | 30.1%22 W · 51 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 30cpaid | -7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x96df…4caabacked Blanchet | 17c | 1,470$250 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$249.9 | 260 | 39.2%102 W · 158 L | +3.0wins | +0.01per pick | 38cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x48e3…c148backed Blanchet | 17c | 600$102 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$102 | 157 | 24.8%39 W · 118 L | +5.8wins | +0.04per pick | 21cpaid | +20.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8b7e…6a9fbacked Blanchet | 19c | 526.32$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 480 | 43.3%208 W · 272 L | -1.0wins | 0.00per pick | 44cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdc4b…5a92backed Blanchet | 19c | 526.32$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 639 | 42.4%271 W · 368 L | +1.3wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | -2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4dbe…af34backed Blanchet | 15c | 500.01$77 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$76.67 | 161 | 40.4%65 W · 96 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xda35…ff0ebacked Blanchet | 24c | 419.25$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 591 | 51.6%305 W · 286 L | +4.3wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9b2b…5752backed Blanchet | 17c | 382.35$65 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$65 | 214 | 54.7%117 W · 97 L | +13.1wins | +0.06per pick | 49cpaid | +6.5%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb3d0…5c32backed Blanchet | 17c | 299.99$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51 | 226 | 29.2%66 W · 160 L | +7.1wins | +0.03per pick | 26cpaid | +16.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb377…f621backed Blanchet | 15c | 294.12$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.12 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 25cpaid | -42.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc398…f446backed Blanchet | 20c | 282$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56.4 | 960 | 35.4%340 W · 620 L | -40.5wins | -0.04per pick | 40cpaid | -14.6%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfdbf…c88ebacked Blanchet | 18c | 271.67$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.9 | 245 | 29.8%73 W · 172 L | -6.2wins | -0.03per pick | 32cpaid | -10.3%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4b5a…7618backed Blanchet | 15c | 270$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.62 | 253 | 30%76 W · 177 L | +4.1wins | +0.02per pick | 28cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb478…ac0abacked Blanchet | 25c | 259.76$64 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$64 | 360 | 47.2%170 W · 190 L | +9.6wins | +0.03per pick | 45cpaid | -1.9%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xde04…fa37backed Machac | 76c | 256$195 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$61 | 1,107 | 42.8%474 W · 633 L | -20.0wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -16.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb852…bfaebacked Blanchet | 15c | 246.82$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.02 | 296 | 34.1%101 W · 195 L | +10.3wins | +0.03per pick | 31cpaid | +15.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Machac | 79c | 211.73$167 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.36 | 11,435 | 43.4%4,959 W · 6,476 L | +17.8wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf419…3ce7backed Blanchet | 17c | 140$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.15 | 72 | 36.1%26 W · 46 L | +2.9wins | +0.04per pick | 32cpaid | +14.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe216…7448backed Blanchet | 18c | 138.89$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 512 | 43%220 W · 292 L | +14.5wins | +0.03per pick | 40cpaid | +8.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa263…6cf0backed Blanchet | 17c | 138.29$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.51 | 175 | 38.3%67 W · 108 L | -6.1wins | -0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +4.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfd2f…37ddbacked Blanchet | 15c | 120$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18 | 149 | 33.6%50 W · 99 L | +4.0wins | +0.03per pick | 31cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9354…6502backed Machac | 79c | 110.59$87 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.49 | 755 | 47.8%361 W · 394 L | +0.9wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -13.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4df3…788fbacked Blanchet | 15c | 106.06$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.91 | 951 | 40.1%381 W · 570 L | +29.7wins | +0.03per pick | 37cpaid | +12%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd4b2…273bbacked Machac | 79c | 105$83 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.31 | 66 | 59.1%39 W · 27 L | +2.0wins | +0.03per pick | 56cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x25bf…7a56backed Blanchet | 20c | 98.09$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 2,335 | 46.6%1,088 W · 1,247 L | +55.3wins | +0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6bf2…85b7backed Blanchet | 19c | 78.95$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 88 | 58%51 W · 37 L | -1.9wins | -0.02per pick | 60cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf102…1348backed Blanchet | 17c | 59$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.03 | 1,489 | 32.6%486 W · 1,003 L | +22.2wins | +0.01per pick | 31cpaid | +6.4%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x29c0…efaabacked Machac | 78c | 55.45$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12 | 551 | 43.4%239 W · 312 L | +0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | +5.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9b48…58a6backed Machac | 80c | 23.75$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.75 | 8 | 62.5%5 W · 3 L | +1.1wins | +0.14per pick | 49cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Tennis and say nothing about this market.
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.