South American Leagues · resolved market
Associação Chapecoense de Futebol vs. Botafogo FR: O/U 2.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x970f06639cea65beb5aa43eeedd8499eaf2c562d9ad61f6a22a9e6712ed3ac5c
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Overof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- South American Leaguesevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $46,621
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $46,362
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $46,621 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 64 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in South American Leagues is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in South American Leagues | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xdb22…6478backed Over | 49c | 31,113$15,245 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15,867.52 | 294 | 46.6%137 W · 157 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x38f0…2768backed Over | 50c | 10,861$5,431 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5,430.59 | 16 | 50%8 W · 8 L | -0.3wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x27f7…44b0backed Under | 51c | 6,498$3,314 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,314.07 | 429 | 62.2%267 W · 162 L | +10.7wins | +0.03per pick | 60cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4e3c…64b8backed Under | 51c | 6,145$3,133 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,132.98 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.7wins | -0.22per pick | 56cpaid | -30.6%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7ea5…de7bbacked Under | 50c | 5,580$2,817 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,817.3 | 3,407 | 51.3%1,749 W · 1,658 L | +21.2wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Under | 50c | 4,693$2,352 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,351.9 | 5,762 | 45.4%2,614 W · 3,148 L | +94.9wins | +0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -7.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9c76…c926backed Under | 50c | 3,941$1,990 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,990.01 | 170 | 55.3%94 W · 76 L | +1.2wins | +0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2114…84c5backed Under | 51c | 2,761$1,408 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,408.34 | 30 | 40%12 W · 18 L | -3.2wins | -0.11per pick | 51cpaid | -22.2%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x32cc…68b3backed Under | 51c | 1,434$731 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$731.4 | 571 | 57.8%330 W · 241 L | +9.0wins | +0.02per pick | 56cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2302…d6d2backed Under | 51c | 1,434$731 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$731.4 | 477 | 56%267 W · 210 L | +9.9wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | +2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfb51…082dbacked Under | 51c | 1,434$731 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$731.4 | 412 | 56.6%233 W · 179 L | +7.0wins | +0.02per pick | 55cpaid | +2.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Under | 51c | 1,221$618 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$617.93 | 8,112 | 48.7%3,951 W · 4,161 L | +27.1wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x28dc…a1f2backed Under | 51c | 970.6$495 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$495.01 | 230 | 57.4%132 W · 98 L | +5.1wins | +0.02per pick | 55cpaid | +6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4658…4131backed Under | 50c | 900$450 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$450 | 32 | 40.6%13 W · 19 L | -5.3wins | -0.17per pick | 57cpaid | -32.2%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x001a…1fb9backed Over | 49c | 794.91$390 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$405.4 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.6wins | -0.16per pick | 41cpaid | -49%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4133…5e70backed Under | 51c | 588.1$298 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$297.97 | 1,985 | 44.8%890 W · 1,095 L | -44.4wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -12.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6001…0457backed Under | 51c | 579.88$293 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$293.31 | 72 | 69.4%50 W · 22 L | +12.3wins | +0.17per pick | 52cpaid | +37.3%equal weight | 64+0.13 edge/pick |
| 0x5e30…acbfbacked Under | 50c | 500$250 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$250 | 307 | 54.7%168 W · 139 L | -4.2wins | -0.01per pick | 56cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6077…3231backed Under | 51c | 475.78$243 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$242.65 | 45 | 55.6%25 W · 20 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | +9.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa578…6702backed Under | 51c | 404.74$206 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$206.42 | 171 | 43.9%75 W · 96 L | -9.2wins | -0.05per pick | 49cpaid | -11.2%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x507e…beaebacked Under | 50c | 370.57$185 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$185.07 | 2,388 | 51.8%1,237 W · 1,151 L | -9.3wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3982…2befbacked Under | 51c | 259.38$132 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$132.28 | 477 | 58.1%277 W · 200 L | +8.1wins | +0.02per pick | 56cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf02f…1ed8backed Under | 51c | 257.3$131 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$130.51 | 507 | 46.7%237 W · 270 L | -5.8wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x84ad…bfb7backed Under | 42c | 223.61$95 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$94.89 | 1,070 | 47.4%507 W · 563 L | -46.3wins | -0.04per pick | 52cpaid | -17.9%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe732…04a8backed Under | 51c | 209.35$107 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$106.77 | 14 | 35.7%5 W · 9 L | -1.9wins | -0.14per pick | 49cpaid | -13.8%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x234b…f36dbacked Under | 50c | 201.36$101 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100.82 | 332 | 66.3%220 W · 112 L | +24.8wins | +0.07per pick | 59cpaid | +15.4%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xcc11…c87bbacked Over | 49c | 165$81 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$84.15 | 196 | 59.7%117 W · 79 L | +1.1wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5746…06cfbacked Under | 52c | 140.08$73 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$72.84 | 30 | 43.3%13 W · 17 L | -2.3wins | -0.08per pick | 51cpaid | -28%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x200f…7a96backed Under | 50c | 132$66 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$66 | 2,614 | 54.2%1,416 W · 1,198 L | +25.1wins | +0.01per pick | 53cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x77bc…b91bbacked Under | 50c | 111.8$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55.9 | 2,173 | 43.6%948 W · 1,225 L | -55.4wins | -0.03per pick | 46cpaid | -19.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0c3e…3c4cbacked Over | 71c | 106.21$76 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.62 | 217 | 65.4%142 W · 75 L | +24.1wins | +0.11per pick | 54cpaid | +23.1%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xf800…bdbabacked Under | 49c | 100$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49 | 218 | 37.6%82 W · 136 L | -12.0wins | -0.05per pick | 43cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa965…7f73backed Over | 48c | 98.82$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51.39 | 94 | 47.9%45 W · 49 L | -1.4wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa623…a4febacked Under | 51c | 97.06$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.5 | 228 | 53.1%121 W · 107 L | -1.6wins | -0.01per pick | 54cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1950…1bf4backed Under | 50c | 94.74$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.37 | 118 | 58.5%69 W · 49 L | -2.3wins | -0.02per pick | 60cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0cc5…ee5abacked Over | 52c | 93.38$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.82 | 181 | 40.3%73 W · 108 L | +4.1wins | +0.02per pick | 38cpaid | +8.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x54a6…7401backed Under | 50c | 80.88$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.44 | 14 | 50%7 W · 7 L | -0.5wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -15.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x49ec…ac1cbacked Over | 50c | 70.81$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.41 | 23 | 43.5%10 W · 13 L | +2.1wins | +0.09per pick | 34cpaid | +0.1%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x948b…a188backed Under | 51c | 64.29$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.79 | 636 | 57.5%366 W · 270 L | -5.6wins | -0.01per pick | 58cpaid | -5.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x15ee…512dbacked Under | 51c | 57.27$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.21 | 242 | 53.3%129 W · 113 L | +8.8wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | +7.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x43c7…d727backed Under | 51c | 57.09$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.12 | 30 | 53.3%16 W · 14 L | +1.0wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9bd9…084fbacked Over | 63c | 51.25$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.96 | 246 | 54.9%135 W · 111 L | +4.3wins | +0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xba8d…009dbacked Over | 49c | 50.69$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.85 | 128 | 28.1%36 W · 92 L | -1.7wins | -0.01per pick | 29cpaid | -10.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x36f9…5445backed Under | 50c | 48.5$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.25 | 172 | 61%105 W · 67 L | +4.8wins | +0.03per pick | 58cpaid | +3.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8632…4696backed Under | 50c | 47.42$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.71 | 99 | 53.5%53 W · 46 L | -2.0wins | -0.02per pick | 56cpaid | -3.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x02ea…220cbacked Over | 52c | 46.8$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.52 | 43 | 44.2%19 W · 24 L | +0.9wins | +0.02per pick | 42cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa2e0…d084backed Under | 49c | 39.57$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.39 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.5wins | -0.51per pick | 51cpaid | -100%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8968…c3c1backed Under | 50c | 39.22$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.8 | 97 | 41.2%40 W · 57 L | -8.3wins | -0.09per pick | 50cpaid | -23.7%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xe697…708fbacked Under | 51c | 38.06$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.41 | 258 | 64.3%166 W · 92 L | +8.1wins | +0.03per pick | 61cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x76e5…af5ebacked Under | 51c | 38.06$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.41 | 18 | 61.1%11 W · 7 L | +1.2wins | +0.07per pick | 54cpaid | +12.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2f31…e2b6backed Under | 50c | 36$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18 | 93 | 63.4%59 W · 34 L | +1.3wins | +0.01per pick | 62cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdbdd…a5debacked Over | 68c | 34.72$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.17 | 1,328 | 57%757 W · 571 L | +57.8wins | +0.04per pick | 53cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x06e7…3acabacked Under | 51c | 31.88$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.26 | 156 | 54.5%85 W · 71 L | +0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 54cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcd2d…d7f8backed Over | 51c | 30.15$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.77 | 18 | 38.9%7 W · 11 L | -1.6wins | -0.09per pick | 48cpaid | -5.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe941…a496backed Under | 51c | 26.91$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.78 | 58 | 65.5%38 W · 20 L | +2.8wins | +0.05per pick | 61cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc291…5d74backed Under | 51c | 26$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.26 | 3,755 | 38.2%1,435 W · 2,320 L | -32.5wins | -0.01per pick | 39cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe8c2…45b2backed Over | 48c | 25.2$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.1 | 25 | 44%11 W · 14 L | -0.8wins | -0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -23%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x46d2…6805backed Under | 50c | 24.25$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.08 | 74 | 60.8%45 W · 29 L | +1.2wins | +0.02per pick | 59cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xef18…4d70backed Over | 50c | 21.15$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.55 | 313 | 55.6%174 W · 139 L | +24.8wins | +0.08per pick | 48cpaid | +16.7%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xdf16…b409backed Under | 75c | 20.96$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.72 | 10 | 30%3 W · 7 L | -1.5wins | -0.15per pick | 45cpaid | -42%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xaedd…ad5bbacked Under | 51c | 20.88$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.63 | 286 | 65%186 W · 100 L | +9.0wins | +0.03per pick | 62cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5bfe…0741backed Under | 54c | 20.19$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.9 | 80 | 47.5%38 W · 42 L | -3.6wins | -0.04per pick | 52cpaid | -10.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb82b…bb76backed Under | 50c | 20.06$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.03 | 33 | 24.2%8 W · 25 L | -4.1wins | -0.12per pick | 37cpaid | -39.2%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xd78e…6421backed Under | 50c | 20$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 70 | 52.9%37 W · 33 L | -6.3wins | -0.09per pick | 62cpaid | -14.9%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in South American Leagues and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 8 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Associação Chapecoense de Futebol vs. Botafogo FR: O/U 2.5this page
- Associação Chapecoense de Futebol vs. Botafogo FR: Both Teams to ScoreYes won
- Associação Chapecoense de Futebol vs. Botafogo FR: O/U 1.5Over won
- Associação Chapecoense de Futebol vs. Botafogo FR: O/U 3.5Over won
- Associação Chapecoense de Futebol vs. Botafogo FR: O/U 4.5Over won
- Spread: Associação Chapecoense de Futebol (-2.5)Botafogo FR won
- Spread: Botafogo FR (-1.5)Botafogo FR won
- Spread: Botafogo FR (-2.5)Botafogo FR won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.