Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in London be between 47-48°F on February 26?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x972ed3f4b906d434d06eea1457725c3a673dbb93da0529134ddb695682a927b0
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $11,748
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $15,363
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $11,748 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 65 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x8f32…6fe5backed Yes | 75c | 535$401 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$133.75 | 10 | 50%5 W · 5 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -21.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcd16…7467backed Yes | 55c | 379$208 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$170.55 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +1.0wins | +0.34per pick | 66cpaid | +54.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x023e…d4d2backed Yes | 76c | 340.66$260 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$80.66 | 16 | 43.8%7 W · 9 L | -2.5wins | -0.15per pick | 59cpaid | -39.5%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x99b4…aa0bbacked No | 25c | 300$75 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$75 | 9 | 55.6%5 W · 4 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 56cpaid | -13%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf3a4…a380backed No | 45c | 297$134 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$133.65 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.12per pick | 46cpaid | -34.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbec6…423cbacked No | 65c | 271$176 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$176.15 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +0.7wins | +0.11per pick | 56cpaid | +14.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2f4d…fafabacked Yes | 57c | 261$149 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$112.23 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.43per pick | 57cpaid | +75.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc40f…88fcbacked Yes | 50c | 259.48$131 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$128.67 | 53 | 28.3%15 W · 38 L | -0.8wins | -0.01per pick | 30cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4225…3b42backed No | 25c | 235$59 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58.75 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | -1.5wins | -0.16per pick | 49cpaid | -19.2%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1b03…4bbcbacked No | 43c | 218$94 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$93.74 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.43per pick | 43cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0f86…404ebacked Yes | 69c | 200$138 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$62 | 259 | 47.5%123 W · 136 L | +8.5wins | +0.03per pick | 44cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6f7a…c585backed No | 23c | 198.1$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.74 | 72 | 20.8%15 W · 57 L | -1.0wins | -0.01per pick | 22cpaid | +4.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc4c5…b06cbacked Yes | 35c | 186$65 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$120.9 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.7wins | +0.65per pick | 35cpaid | +185.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0ead…ee06backed Yes | 35c | 181$63 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$117.65 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.7wins | +0.65per pick | 35cpaid | +185.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc230…73cdbacked No | 43c | 172$74 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$73.96 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -12.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5f21…b376backed Yes | 24c | 150$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$114 | 17,355 | 19.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L | +396.7wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa291…d88dbacked Yes | 26c | 147.96$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$109.48 | 191 | 26.2%50 W · 141 L | -5.2wins | -0.03per pick | 29cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd2be…d835backed No | 73c | 134$98 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$97.82 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.26per pick | 76cpaid | -36.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6297…517ebacked Yes | 49c | 121.91$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$61.94 | 1,643 | 27.8%456 W · 1,187 L | +117.6wins | +0.07per pick | 21cpaid | +33%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x081b…dac7backed No | 76c | 121.91$93 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$92.64 | 47 | 63.8%30 W · 17 L | +1.3wins | +0.03per pick | 61cpaid | +1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6c49…ee5dbacked Yes | 74c | 107.46$80 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.94 | 67 | 20.9%14 W · 53 L | +2.0wins | +0.03per pick | 18cpaid | +84.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x132a…fc1fbacked Yes | 57c | 107$61 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.01 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.43per pick | 57cpaid | +75.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe92b…fa4dbacked Yes | 59c | 103.38$61 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.09 | 66 | 37.9%25 W · 41 L | -3.9wins | -0.06per pick | 44cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0f37…1410backed Yes | 74c | 100$74 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26 | 849 | 30.6%260 W · 589 L | +29.7wins | +0.03per pick | 27cpaid | +28%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x57ee…8112backed No | 23c | 100$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23 | 1,727 | 18%311 W · 1,416 L | +74.3wins | +0.04per pick | 14cpaid | +11%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc8ab…6418backed Yes | 74c | 100$74 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26 | 1,322 | 32.2%426 W · 896 L | -43.7wins | -0.03per pick | 36cpaid | -14.8%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc7c1…170fbacked No | 65c | 96$62 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$62.4 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.8wins | -0.27per pick | 60cpaid | -54.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xaaec…8dc8backed Yes | 25c | 92$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$69.06 | 493 | 38.9%192 W · 301 L | +49.3wins | +0.10per pick | 29cpaid | +51.9%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xf285…01fabacked Yes | 58c | 88$51 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.96 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.42per pick | 58cpaid | +72.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe5c5…227dbacked Yes | 80c | 86.84$69 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.37 | 42 | 33.3%14 W · 28 L | -2.0wins | -0.05per pick | 38cpaid | -37.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3b1f…6500backed Yes | 65c | 76.71$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.82 | 34 | 35.3%12 W · 22 L | -3.0wins | -0.09per pick | 44cpaid | -24.9%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xda49…9de7backed Yes | 34c | 72$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47.52 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.9wins | +0.45per pick | 55cpaid | +113.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7888…fab2backed No | 66c | 72$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.52 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.16per pick | 66cpaid | -23.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x22f6…830dbacked Yes | 35c | 64$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.6 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.7wins | +0.65per pick | 35cpaid | +185.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xca5f…1e74backed No | 49c | 54.65$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.78 | 113 | 42.5%48 W · 65 L | -7.0wins | -0.06per pick | 49cpaid | +9.7%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x280a…78cabacked No | 65c | 53$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.45 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.23per pick | 73cpaid | -37.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7b61…33e2backed No | 65c | 50$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.5 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.7wins | -0.65per pick | 65cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5f39…a78cbacked Yes | 71c | 49.95$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.29 | 213 | 50.2%107 W · 106 L | +19.0wins | +0.09per pick | 41cpaid | +22.9%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x3f8f…f3d0backed Yes | 25c | 49$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.75 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.8wins | +0.75per pick | 25cpaid | +300%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe982…0170backed Yes | 35c | 46$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.9 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.7wins | +0.65per pick | 35cpaid | +185.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x200b…ccaabacked Yes | 25c | 43$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.25 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.8wins | +0.75per pick | 25cpaid | +300%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe699…3abfbacked Yes | 25c | 42$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.5 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.8wins | +0.75per pick | 25cpaid | +300%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x645e…7aa5backed No | 75c | 40$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.02per pick | 64cpaid | +13.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8306…15e2backed Yes | 55c | 38$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.1 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.45per pick | 55cpaid | +81.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x229f…6ea8backed No | 42c | 37$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.54 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.7wins | -0.22per pick | 55cpaid | -56.7%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdf97…ed96backed Yes | 35c | 32$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.8 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.7wins | +0.65per pick | 35cpaid | +185.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x61ac…f57dbacked No | 64c | 30$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.2 | 46 | 54.3%25 W · 21 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 54cpaid | -5.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x96b8…bd86backed No | 45c | 29$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.05 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.45per pick | 45cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf594…012cbacked No | 75c | 29$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.75 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.5wins | -0.73per pick | 73cpaid | -100%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x99a8…92edbacked No | 45c | 29$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.05 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.7wins | -0.33per pick | 33cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd280…bab7backed No | 42c | 29$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.18 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.42per pick | 42cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x603a…da67backed No | 45c | 29$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.05 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.1wins | -0.55per pick | 55cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x734e…8900backed No | 45c | 28.18$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.68 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.45per pick | 45cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3df4…57dfbacked No | 51c | 22.22$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.22 | 112 | 54.5%61 W · 51 L | +20.1wins | +0.18per pick | 37cpaid | +75.9%equal weight | 66+0.15 edge/pick |
| 0xa1af…7d93backed Yes | 55c | 21$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.45 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.7wins | +0.37per pick | 64cpaid | +60.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa501…9f01backed No | 76c | 20$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.2 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.8wins | -0.76per pick | 76cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf073…b2efbacked Yes | 55c | 20$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.45per pick | 55cpaid | +81.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb720…3993backed No | 65c | 19$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.35 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.7wins | -0.65per pick | 65cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2fc5…c030backed No | 65c | 18$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.7 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.7wins | -0.65per pick | 65cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3705…98abbacked No | 65c | 17$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.05 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.7wins | -0.65per pick | 65cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3735…1147backed No | 65c | 16$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.4 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.7wins | -0.65per pick | 65cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcac2…4255backed Yes | 78c | 15.38$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.38 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.22per pick | 78cpaid | +28.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9eb4…e58fbacked No | 75c | 14$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.5 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.8wins | -0.75per pick | 75cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7a76…7786backed No | 75c | 14$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.5 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.8wins | -0.75per pick | 75cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x836d…23c6backed No | 75c | 14$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.5 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.8wins | -0.75per pick | 75cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in London be between 47-48°F on February 26?this page
- Will the highest temperature in London be 42°F or below on February 26?No won
- Will the highest temperature in London be between 45-46°F on February 26?No won
- Will the highest temperature in London be between 49-50°F on February 26?No won
- Will the highest temperature in London be between 51-52°F on February 26?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.