Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in London be between 49-50°F on February 26?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xf3f3fb978018ee729b518d43f858da7941bdc34202ff28fa8349954f7b7741f9
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $105,672
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $106,338
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $105,672 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 73 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x5c00…003abacked Yes | 2c | 42,085$715 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$715.45 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.6wins | -0.15per pick | 15cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc390…28bdbacked Yes | 1c | 3,718$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.95 | 250 | 6%15 W · 235 L | -12.4wins | -0.05per pick | 11cpaid | -67%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xacc8…7d08backed Yes | 4c | 2,022$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80.2 | 602 | 35.7%215 W · 387 L | +41.3wins | +0.07per pick | 29cpaid | +37.8%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xa877…f204backed Yes | 25c | 999.98$250 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$249.99 | 114 | 49.1%56 W · 58 L | +17.9wins | +0.16per pick | 33cpaid | +104.3%equal weight | 64+0.13 edge/pick |
| 0x0f37…1410backed Yes | 2c | 883.09$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.48 | 849 | 30.6%260 W · 589 L | +29.7wins | +0.03per pick | 27cpaid | +28%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x57ee…8112backed Yes | 11c | 635.54$72 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$71.54 | 1,727 | 18%311 W · 1,416 L | +74.3wins | +0.04per pick | 14cpaid | +11%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0f86…404ebacked Yes | 17c | 574.98$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100.42 | 259 | 47.5%123 W · 136 L | +8.5wins | +0.03per pick | 44cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9587…ef94backed Yes | 29c | 445$129 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$129.05 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.29per pick | 29cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd8f8…0f11backed Yes | 17c | 440$75 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$75.1 | 966 | 20.7%200 W · 766 L | +59.8wins | +0.06per pick | 15cpaid | +96.3%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xac49…0294backed No | 71c | 397$282 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$115.13 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.29per pick | 71cpaid | +40.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6f7a…c585backed Yes | 23c | 280.79$65 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$65.4 | 72 | 20.8%15 W · 57 L | -1.0wins | -0.01per pick | 22cpaid | +4.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa291…d88dbacked Yes | 39c | 229.99$89 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$89.09 | 191 | 26.2%50 W · 141 L | -5.2wins | -0.03per pick | 29cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3df4…57dfbacked No | 54c | 215.23$116 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$98.99 | 112 | 54.5%61 W · 51 L | +20.1wins | +0.18per pick | 37cpaid | +75.9%equal weight | 66+0.15 edge/pick |
| 0xde32…700cbacked Yes | 33c | 213.16$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$69.78 | 129 | 50.4%65 W · 64 L | +13.1wins | +0.10per pick | 40cpaid | +23.5%equal weight | 59+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x0238…ba26backed Yes | 45c | 199.99$90 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$89.99 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.9wins | -0.44per pick | 44cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6297…517ebacked Yes | 9c | 131.66$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.56 | 1,643 | 27.8%456 W · 1,187 L | +117.6wins | +0.07per pick | 21cpaid | +33%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xd9a1…7730backed Yes | 20c | 119$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.8 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.20per pick | 20cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x53a4…b411backed Yes | 25c | 113.16$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.95 | 64 | 26.6%17 W · 47 L | -2.1wins | -0.03per pick | 30cpaid | -42.5%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2e72…fcc6backed No | 62c | 113$70 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.94 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.31per pick | 69cpaid | +46.4%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6c49…ee5dbacked Yes | 11c | 109.09$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 67 | 20.9%14 W · 53 L | +2.0wins | +0.03per pick | 18cpaid | +84.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x167d…af99backed Yes | 38c | 107$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.66 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.38per pick | 38cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5f21…b376backed Yes | 32c | 107$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.24 | 17,355 | 19.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L | +396.7wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0ca1…975abacked No | 40c | 105$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$63 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.60per pick | 40cpaid | +150%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc8ab…6418backed Yes | 20c | 100$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 1,322 | 32.2%426 W · 896 L | -43.7wins | -0.03per pick | 36cpaid | -14.8%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x076c…4e7bbacked Yes | 19c | 93.13$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.03 | 321 | 33.3%107 W · 214 L | -2.8wins | -0.01per pick | 34cpaid | -11.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0a93…c28bbacked Yes | 18c | 93$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.74 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.18per pick | 18cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5ccf…dbd9backed No | 40c | 85$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.60per pick | 40cpaid | +150%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x54e1…6107backed Yes | 54c | 80$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.2 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.54per pick | 54cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1722…fdcdbacked No | 63c | 74$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.38 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.37per pick | 63cpaid | +58.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb560…535bbacked Yes | 60c | 71$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.6 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.9wins | -0.43per pick | 43cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6a74…413ebacked Yes | 45c | 66.67$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 18 | 44.4%8 W · 10 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 43cpaid | +80.1%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x24ac…0287backed No | 51c | 66$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.34 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9c51…07a4backed Yes | 39c | 64$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.96 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.05per pick | 55cpaid | -30.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd710…8c3cbacked No | 61c | 64$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.96 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.3wins | +0.15per pick | 35cpaid | -18%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe781…e563backed Yes | 22c | 62.15$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.5 | 13 | 38.5%5 W · 8 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 39cpaid | -26.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc6ca…8794backed Yes | 60c | 62$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.2 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.60per pick | 60cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xab0d…9572backed Yes | 60c | 57$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.2 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.9wins | -0.44per pick | 44cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb0b1…b48fbacked No | 80c | 57$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.4 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.20per pick | 80cpaid | +25%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x645e…7aa5backed No | 62c | 55$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.9 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.02per pick | 64cpaid | +13.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x343e…b855backed No | 61c | 52$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.28 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.39per pick | 61cpaid | +63.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x460f…8d1cbacked Yes | 38c | 47$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.86 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.8wins | -0.42per pick | 42cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa906…4a99backed No | 61c | 47$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.33 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.39per pick | 61cpaid | +63.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x94ee…3fbebacked Yes | 45c | 44.44$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.16per pick | 49cpaid | -24.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x82fb…79b6backed No | 62c | 44$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.72 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.9wins | +0.47per pick | 54cpaid | +91.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf348…60ccbacked Yes | 38c | 40$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.2 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.38per pick | 38cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2fb1…0606backed Yes | 39c | 40$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.6 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.39per pick | 39cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9dc1…ba14backed Yes | 50c | 40$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 14 | 28.6%4 W · 10 L | -3.3wins | -0.24per pick | 52cpaid | -54.9%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x5c3e…4c40backed No | 62c | 37$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.06 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.38per pick | 62cpaid | +61.3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdced…daeabacked Yes | 37c | 33$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.21 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.37per pick | 37cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa308…2ce8backed Yes | 38c | 33$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.54 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.38per pick | 38cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8120…e938backed No | 46c | 32$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.16 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +1.4wins | +0.69per pick | 31cpaid | +341.2%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x885a…a46cbacked Yes | 52c | 31$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.12 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.1wins | -0.57per pick | 57cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x61ac…f57dbacked No | 55c | 30$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.5 | 46 | 54.3%25 W · 21 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 54cpaid | -5.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x36a5…bb72backed Yes | 37c | 30$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.1 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.37per pick | 37cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xde26…0972backed No | 77c | 29.14$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.82 | 39 | 71.8%28 W · 11 L | +2.9wins | +0.08per pick | 64cpaid | +8.3%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x249a…7b97backed No | 46c | 28$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.12 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.54per pick | 46cpaid | +117.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe8e8…cb97backed Yes | 49c | 27$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.23 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.49per pick | 49cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb3cb…24bfbacked Yes | 39c | 27$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.53 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.39per pick | 39cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3369…d18cbacked No | 61c | 26$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.14 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.39per pick | 61cpaid | +63.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9241…f41cbacked Yes | 39c | 25.78$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 96 | 47.9%46 W · 50 L | -14.8wins | -0.15per pick | 63cpaid | -21.6%equal weight | 36-0.12 edge/pick |
| 0x2844…3f65backed Yes | 49c | 25$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.25 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.49per pick | 49cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbc8d…a6d8backed No | 80c | 24$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.8 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.20per pick | 80cpaid | +25%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x49f7…5ad1backed No | 71c | 24$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.96 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.29per pick | 71cpaid | +40.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1c29…baf7backed No | 71c | 24$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.96 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.29per pick | 71cpaid | +40.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf8a3…6fffbacked No | 62c | 23$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.74 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.38per pick | 62cpaid | +61.3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7047…2506backed No | 48c | 23$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.96 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.52per pick | 48cpaid | +108.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd1ce…65febacked No | 48c | 23$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.96 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.52per pick | 48cpaid | +108.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1fd5…7891backed No | 46c | 22$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.88 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.54per pick | 46cpaid | +117.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf682…4b81backed Yes | 52c | 21$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.92 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.52per pick | 52cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc0d9…0946backed No | 61c | 20$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.8 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.39per pick | 61cpaid | +63.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc7de…5e22backed No | 62c | 19$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.22 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.38per pick | 62cpaid | +61.3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf482…5cebbacked No | 80c | 18$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.6 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.20per pick | 80cpaid | +25%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0572…a5c0backed No | 65c | 17$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.95 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.35per pick | 65cpaid | +53.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in London be between 49-50°F on February 26?this page
- Will the highest temperature in London be 42°F or below on February 26?No won
- Will the highest temperature in London be between 45-46°F on February 26?No won
- Will the highest temperature in London be between 47-48°F on February 26?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in London be between 51-52°F on February 26?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.