Movies · resolved market
Will "The Super Mario Galaxy Movie" score at least 45 on the Rotten Tomatoes Tomatometer?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x974c7eca7b3a8c26b7b4fcd2ba3f5c80558f8a04da3f8d3882dc72680e3d6246
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Moviesevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $12,292
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $11,148
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $12,292 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 27 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Movies is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Movies | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xd6a8…58fdbacked Yes | 28c | 913.3$252 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$251.65 | 47 | 6.4%3 W · 44 L | -3.2wins | -0.07per pick | 13cpaid | -75.7%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7516…8bebbacked No | 71c | 627$446 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$180.77 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.05per pick | 45cpaid | -29.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xad70…4ccfbacked Yes | 4c | 624.99$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26 | 108 | 14.8%16 W · 92 L | -4.8wins | -0.04per pick | 19cpaid | -68.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x74af…19fdbacked Yes | 4c | 553.98$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.2 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb17d…59aebacked No | 74c | 460.41$340 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$120.41 | 33 | 51.5%17 W · 16 L | +1.5wins | +0.05per pick | 47cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x018b…7d89backed Yes | 4c | 434$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.36 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcffe…146dbacked No | 31c | 367.84$113 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$254.98 | 129 | 36.4%47 W · 82 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 36cpaid | -25.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe54b…aa14backed Yes | 75c | 313$234 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$234.23 | 15 | 26.7%4 W · 11 L | -1.9wins | -0.13per pick | 39cpaid | -63.2%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 8c | 307.77$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.85 | 1,393 | 8%111 W · 1,282 L | -47.9wins | -0.03per pick | 11cpaid | -50%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x056f…e487backed Yes | 57c | 261.64$150 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$150 | 120 | 30%36 W · 84 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 30cpaid | -20%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb2f9…eb15backed Yes | 7c | 226$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.78 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.3wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x681b…8a5abacked No | 44c | 199.44$88 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$111.9 | 33 | 39.4%13 W · 20 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -12.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x09fd…fcafbacked Yes | 14c | 172.4$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.14 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.14per pick | 14cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xca12…ea03backed No | 79c | 149.9$119 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.18 | 30 | 66.7%20 W · 10 L | +4.7wins | +0.16per pick | 51cpaid | +88.9%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x16ee…da09backed Yes | 28c | 100$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.28per pick | 28cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfcf2…7279backed Yes | 50c | 100$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 138 | 20.3%28 W · 110 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 20cpaid | +27.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9dd9…08bdbacked Yes | 14c | 94$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.38 | 237 | 51.9%123 W · 114 L | +16.9wins | +0.07per pick | 45cpaid | +6.2%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed Yes | 17c | 91.65$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.82 | 160 | 15.6%25 W · 135 L | -26.1wins | -0.16per pick | 32cpaid | -70.7%equal weight | 34-0.14 edge/pick |
| 0x2ab0…95fbbacked Yes | 74c | 67.57$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.7wins | -0.74per pick | 74cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xeaa4…ae23backed Yes | 60c | 41.59$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.60per pick | 60cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xaa20…0549backed Yes | 26c | 40$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.4 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.21per pick | 21cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbea0…e19dbacked No | 71c | 38$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.02 | 20 | 55%11 W · 9 L | -0.3wins | -0.02per pick | 57cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x564f…7026backed Yes | 53c | 37.44$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 48 | 45.8%22 W · 26 L | +2.1wins | +0.04per pick | 41cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4c90…cd7bbacked No | 80c | 36$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.2 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 27cpaid | -33.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2ecb…7645backed No | 42c | 26.09$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15 | 129 | 38.8%50 W · 79 L | +3.2wins | +0.03per pick | 36cpaid | -13.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6020…99f9backed No | 71c | 21$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.09 | 28 | 39.3%11 W · 17 L | -0.5wins | -0.02per pick | 41cpaid | -20.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x70ac…e0f1backed Yes | 71c | 20$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.2 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.15per pick | 48cpaid | -40.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Movies and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 4 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will "The Super Mario Galaxy Movie" score at least 45 on the Rotten Tomatoes Tomatometer?this page
- Will "The Super Mario Galaxy Movie" score at least 50 on the Rotten Tomatoes Tomatometer?No won
- Will "The Super Mario Galaxy Movie" score at least 55 on the Rotten Tomatoes Tomatometer?No won
- Will "The Super Mario Galaxy Movie" score at least 60 on the Rotten Tomatoes Tomatometer?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.