South American Leagues · resolved market
Will São Paulo FC vs. SE Palmeiras end in a draw?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x97bced9c78bb6b914f30975a49ac48251232c95318547196ecea18dffeb75ff3
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- South American Leaguesevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- Polymarket published no figure
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $14,259
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $14,259 — TailMyPicks’s own total, because the venue published none.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 59 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in South American Leagues is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in South American Leagues | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x4133…5e70backed No | 72c | 3,942$2,836 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,105.58 | 1,985 | 44.8%890 W · 1,095 L | -44.4wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -12.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe726…4c87backed Yes | 32c | 1,249$400 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$399.67 | 27 | 33.3%9 W · 18 L | +1.4wins | +0.05per pick | 28cpaid | +15.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0d42…f124backed Yes | 30c | 1,247$377 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$376.71 | 97 | 27.8%27 W · 70 L | -0.7wins | -0.01per pick | 29cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked No | 74c | 1,060$780 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$279.96 | 5,757 | 45.4%2,611 W · 3,146 L | +94.0wins | +0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x29c0…efaabacked Yes | 33c | 1,022$337 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$337.26 | 816 | 51.6%421 W · 395 L | +12.0wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2707…0afabacked Yes | 33c | 1,000$330 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$330 | 131 | 34.4%45 W · 86 L | -4.4wins | -0.03per pick | 38cpaid | -19%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc686…5a55backed Yes | 27c | 1,000$270 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$270 | 465 | 30.3%141 W · 324 L | -7.3wins | -0.02per pick | 32cpaid | -12%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4bba…cf14backed No | 69c | 975$673 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$302.25 | 55 | 60%33 W · 22 L | -4.5wins | -0.08per pick | 68cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xfd3f…44f1backed No | 67c | 952.24$638 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$314.24 | 22 | 68.2%15 W · 7 L | +2.4wins | +0.11per pick | 57cpaid | +19.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1229…84c1backed Yes | 26c | 639.35$166 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$166.23 | 5 | 80%4 W · 1 L | +1.9wins | +0.38per pick | 42cpaid | +87.2%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xe85d…c249backed Yes | 19c | 526.32$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.19per pick | 19cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5fb4…90f3backed No | 68c | 441.18$300 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$141.18 | 42 | 61.9%26 W · 16 L | +3.5wins | +0.08per pick | 54cpaid | +17.2%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed No | 67c | 416.56$279 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$137.46 | 8,107 | 48.7%3,948 W · 4,159 L | +26.8wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0438…9d98backed Yes | 25c | 397.12$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 31 | 41.9%13 W · 18 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -14.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7ea5…de7bbacked Yes | 31c | 387.67$120 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$120.18 | 3,405 | 51.3%1,748 W · 1,657 L | +21.3wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x34e8…100fbacked No | 69c | 351$242 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$108.81 | 16 | 56.3%9 W · 7 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 56cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6ac5…4b6ebacked No | 67c | 349.74$234 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$115.41 | 378 | 51.3%194 W · 184 L | +7.3wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +4.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x81ea…c3c5backed Yes | 25c | 320$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.25per pick | 25cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd71a…67f5backed No | 68c | 313.24$212 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$101.34 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.32per pick | 68cpaid | +47.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcb5b…f243backed No | 70c | 296.66$209 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$87.93 | 849 | 43.8%372 W · 477 L | +5.1wins | +0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc4db…7e0cbacked Yes | 32c | 294.05$95 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$94.54 | 337 | 45.4%153 W · 184 L | +4.4wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | +3.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2961…cfcfbacked Yes | 33c | 252.73$83 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$83.4 | 14 | 35.7%5 W · 9 L | -1.6wins | -0.11per pick | 47cpaid | -16%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x74bb…1759backed Yes | 33c | 251.52$83 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$83 | 88 | 31.8%28 W · 60 L | +3.6wins | +0.04per pick | 28cpaid | +20.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xde53…e5bebacked Yes | 33c | 250$83 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$82.5 | 91 | 50.5%46 W · 45 L | -0.8wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd01c…7f9dbacked Yes | 32c | 250$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80 | 1,355 | 49.7%674 W · 681 L | -8.1wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x482c…4da1backed Yes | 33c | 227.27$75 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$75 | 22 | 36.4%8 W · 14 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 37cpaid | -5.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2d6a…8addbacked No | 67c | 204.42$137 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$67.46 | 1,231 | 53.9%663 W · 568 L | +12.2wins | +0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1f62…76f6backed Yes | 32c | 186.18$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59.58 | 1,651 | 50.6%836 W · 815 L | -4.4wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x236b…26b7backed Yes | 32c | 157$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.24 | 28 | 32.1%9 W · 19 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 33cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xba4b…96c9backed Yes | 33c | 126.88$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.87 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.33per pick | 33cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xefde…6505backed Yes | 32c | 124.99$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 452 | 53.1%240 W · 212 L | +14.7wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +10.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x972b…78babacked No | 67c | 113$76 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.29 | 1,428 | 51.8%740 W · 688 L | +22.5wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6835…1976backed No | 67c | 100.78$68 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.26 | 551 | 55%303 W · 248 L | +13.6wins | +0.02per pick | 53cpaid | +5.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6bde…b181backed Yes | 31c | 100$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31 | 8 | 0%0 W · 8 L | -3.1wins | -0.38per pick | 38cpaid | -100%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x49ec…ac1cbacked Yes | 33c | 78$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.74 | 23 | 43.5%10 W · 13 L | +2.1wins | +0.09per pick | 34cpaid | +0.1%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2b85…bf37backed Yes | 32c | 76.5$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.48 | 235 | 42.1%99 W · 136 L | -13.1wins | -0.06per pick | 48cpaid | -14.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8f40…5401backed Yes | 27c | 74.04$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.99 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +1.2wins | +0.20per pick | 46cpaid | +34.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed Yes | 19c | 72.93$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.2 | 852 | 20.7%176 W · 676 L | -85.2wins | -0.10per pick | 31cpaid | -52.5%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xcf73…0215backed No | 67c | 70$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.1 | 1,282 | 53.7%689 W · 593 L | +5.3wins | 0.00per pick | 53cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8dec…60c2backed No | 75c | 62.31$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.58 | 82 | 48.8%40 W · 42 L | -4.6wins | -0.06per pick | 54cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9a94…b335backed No | 69c | 50$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.5 | 31 | 45.2%14 W · 17 L | -2.0wins | -0.07per pick | 52cpaid | -12.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xaf87…cc46backed Yes | 24c | 49.98$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 64 | 40.6%26 W · 38 L | +2.6wins | +0.04per pick | 37cpaid | +2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc7bb…2753backed Yes | 33c | 45.45$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 63 | 42.9%27 W · 36 L | -4.9wins | -0.08per pick | 51cpaid | -19.7%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xeb76…7ffebacked Yes | 32c | 44.44$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.22 | 100 | 33%33 W · 67 L | -6.2wins | -0.06per pick | 39cpaid | -24.2%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb8cd…e951backed No | 67c | 38$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.54 | 51 | 68.6%35 W · 16 L | -0.6wins | -0.01per pick | 70cpaid | -1.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x576c…f218backed No | 68c | 38$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.16 | 170 | 66.5%113 W · 57 L | +6.4wins | +0.04per pick | 63cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa07d…a037backed Yes | 33c | 36.38$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.01 | 716 | 19.7%141 W · 575 L | -49.1wins | -0.07per pick | 27cpaid | -32.5%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x4c4e…b978backed Yes | 31c | 32.76$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.07 | 13 | 38.5%5 W · 8 L | +0.7wins | +0.06per pick | 33cpaid | -5.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8935…7daabacked No | 68c | 29.51$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.44 | 675 | 48%324 W · 351 L | -18.6wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -12.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf2bc…2aafbacked No | 69c | 29$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.99 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | -1.1wins | -0.14per pick | 64cpaid | -26.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa509…ae46backed No | 69c | 26.88$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.45 | 1,444 | 56.4%815 W · 629 L | +51.8wins | +0.04per pick | 53cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x976e…8453backed No | 75c | 26.67$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.67 | 103 | 65%67 W · 36 L | -4.1wins | -0.04per pick | 69cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x26cb…9fe7backed No | 68c | 26.47$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.47 | 46 | 43.5%20 W · 26 L | +1.0wins | +0.02per pick | 41cpaid | +5.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x507e…beaebacked No | 80c | 25$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5 | 2,388 | 51.8%1,237 W · 1,151 L | -9.3wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf39a…fe47backed No | 70c | 20$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.06 | 948 | 48.1%456 W · 492 L | -18.5wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xaf15…bc03backed No | 76c | 17.69$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.3 | 17 | 76.5%13 W · 4 L | +3.1wins | +0.18per pick | 58cpaid | +42.8%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x50e0…776ebacked No | 69c | 16.67$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.17 | 16 | 50%8 W · 8 L | +1.4wins | +0.08per pick | 42cpaid | +10.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x67e6…86edbacked No | 68c | 16.5$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.28 | 68 | 42.6%29 W · 39 L | -8.7wins | -0.13per pick | 55cpaid | -29.6%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xd809…6542backed No | 79c | 13.46$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2.79 | 367 | 57.5%211 W · 156 L | +5.3wins | +0.01per pick | 56cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in South American Leagues and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will São Paulo FC vs. SE Palmeiras end in a draw?this page
- Will SE Palmeiras win on 2026-03-21?Yes won
- Will São Paulo FC win on 2026-03-21?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.