NBA · resolved market
Will the Cavaliers beat the Heat 4-1
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x97d3867a81056693fd0f789f3d061a924dac55c2476d03e7ee10403fded9bf5a
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NBAevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $268,327
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $268,046
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $268,327 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 19 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NBA is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NBA | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xaf07…2313backed Yes | 32c | 55,576$17,784 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17,784.32 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.1wins | -0.37per pick | 37cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfc41…3873backed No | 68c | 55,576$37,792 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17,784.32 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.8wins | -0.17per pick | 57cpaid | -26.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2499…c3cebacked Yes | 33c | 48,328$15,948 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15,948.24 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.33per pick | 33cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc458…ef36backed No | 67c | 48,328$32,380 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15,948.24 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.33per pick | 67cpaid | +49.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x72f7…e10bbacked Yes | 34c | 28,523$9,698 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$9,697.82 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.2wins | -0.39per pick | 39cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc139…2fabbacked No | 66c | 28,523$18,825 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9,697.82 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | +0.01per pick | 66cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4c03…0cc1backed Yes | 20c | 1,295$263 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$263.26 | 1,602 | 11.8%189 W · 1,413 L | -4.8wins | 0.00per pick | 12cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x339a…1eaebacked Yes | 22c | 656.42$144 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$144.41 | 1,759 | 61.7%1,085 W · 674 L | +127.5wins | +0.07per pick | 54cpaid | +12.7%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xdbb9…ed8dbacked No | 74c | 271.38$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$71.02 | 2,736 | 46.7%1,277 W · 1,459 L | -67.4wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1cfc…2111backed Yes | 24c | 204.12$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.67 | 185 | 36.8%68 W · 117 L | -11.1wins | -0.06per pick | 43cpaid | -29.7%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4344…caefbacked Yes | 18c | 200$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35 | 31 | 48.4%15 W · 16 L | +0.6wins | +0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -24.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfd50…c17bbacked Yes | 31c | 200$62 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$62 | 204 | 43.6%89 W · 115 L | +6.2wins | +0.03per pick | 41cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7a61…af24backed Yes | 20c | 155$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31 | 60 | 26.7%16 W · 44 L | +0.9wins | +0.02per pick | 25cpaid | -30.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1754…cbf0backed Yes | 33c | 151.52$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -17.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb47e…c602backed No | 69c | 150$104 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.5 | 617 | 40.7%251 W · 366 L | -4.9wins | -0.01per pick | 41cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed Yes | 16c | 140$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.4 | 260 | 48.1%125 W · 135 L | -0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3a14…f397backed Yes | 18c | 105$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.9 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.7wins | -0.17per pick | 17cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf7ce…4fb1backed Yes | 21c | 71.43$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 12 | 58.3%7 W · 5 L | +1.8wins | +0.15per pick | 44cpaid | +35.2%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0615…5c47backed Yes | 35c | 50$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.5 | 138 | 23.2%32 W · 106 L | -6.3wins | -0.05per pick | 28cpaid | -19.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NBA and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the Cavaliers beat the Heat 4-1this page
- Will the Cavaliers beat the Heat 4-0Yes won
- Will the Cavaliers beat the Heat 4-2No won
- Will the Cavaliers beat the Heat 4-3No won
- Will the Heat beat the Cavaliers 4-0No won
- Will the Heat beat the Cavaliers 4-3No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.