NBA · resolved market
Will the Cavaliers beat the Heat 4-0
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x7d625cf58688214215a58e43230db2595eb7d9f8812f96aa6ee64f8a771e00a5
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NBAevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $69,919
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $70,205
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $69,919 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 45 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NBA is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NBA | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xd32d…bd1bbacked Yes | 40c | 30,006$12,002 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18,003.6 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | +25%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8b93…7edbbacked No | 60c | 30,006$18,004 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18,003.6 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.60per pick | 60cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4344…caefbacked Yes | 78c | 4,663$3,626 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,037.27 | 31 | 48.4%15 W · 16 L | +0.6wins | +0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -24.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7a61…af24backed No | 24c | 3,750$900 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$900 | 60 | 26.7%16 W · 44 L | +0.9wins | +0.02per pick | 25cpaid | -30.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xee00…cea1backed Yes | 55c | 1,287$704 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$582.91 | 701 | 47.8%335 W · 366 L | +15.4wins | +0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd6ce…0772backed No | 45c | 1,000$450 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$450 | 117 | 41.9%49 W · 68 L | -2.8wins | -0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -11%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6c82…6150backed Yes | 75c | 779.99$589 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$191.2 | 635 | 55.6%353 W · 282 L | +9.5wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe38e…c29dbacked Yes | 73c | 662.6$484 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$178.7 | 135 | 60.7%82 W · 53 L | -3.6wins | -0.03per pick | 63cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x33bc…37dcbacked Yes | 69c | 370.99$255 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$116.18 | 350 | 49.4%173 W · 177 L | +17.0wins | +0.05per pick | 45cpaid | +9.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1cfc…2111backed No | 52c | 337.6$175 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$175.15 | 185 | 36.8%68 W · 117 L | -11.1wins | -0.06per pick | 43cpaid | -29.7%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb47e…c602backed Yes | 44c | 250$110 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$140.24 | 617 | 40.7%251 W · 366 L | -4.9wins | -0.01per pick | 41cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0e02…b1c5backed Yes | 52c | 217.06$113 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$104.19 | 49 | 51%25 W · 24 L | +0.8wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe71d…78cebacked No | 48c | 210$101 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100.8 | 15 | 26.7%4 W · 11 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 28cpaid | -46.2%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd44c…ab91backed Yes | 57c | 210$120 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$90.3 | 283 | 47.7%135 W · 148 L | -5.9wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -12.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdbb9…ed8dbacked No | 51c | 199.04$101 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$101.22 | 2,736 | 46.7%1,277 W · 1,459 L | -67.4wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4c03…0cc1backed No | 38c | 177.71$68 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$67.85 | 1,602 | 11.8%189 W · 1,413 L | -4.8wins | 0.00per pick | 12cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x56ab…8a3fbacked No | 25c | 123.44$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.57 | 9 | 77.8%7 W · 2 L | +2.5wins | +0.27per pick | 50cpaid | +49.3%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x3870…e772backed No | 24c | 109.75$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.69 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.24per pick | 24cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8e96…fedebacked Yes | 78c | 107.62$84 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.68 | 5 | 100%5 W · 0 L | +1.8wins | +0.37per pick | 63cpaid | +76.6%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed No | 47c | 101.95$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.9 | 260 | 48.1%125 W · 135 L | -0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb98b…7e18backed Yes | 42c | 71$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.18 | 412 | 27.4%113 W · 299 L | -3.4wins | -0.01per pick | 28cpaid | +94.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb022…a3cabacked Yes | 44c | 71$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.76 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +1.5wins | +0.49per pick | 51cpaid | +101.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9187…ae44backed Yes | 77c | 62.53$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.38 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | -0.5wins | -0.09per pick | 59cpaid | -26.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa76e…d372backed No | 24c | 61.08$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.66 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.24per pick | 24cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2552…e133backed Yes | 78c | 57.97$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.57 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 66cpaid | -11.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x87ba…e7eebacked Yes | 77c | 50.42$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.6 | 14 | 57.1%8 W · 6 L | +0.7wins | +0.05per pick | 52cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5fe5…8b99backed No | 46c | 50$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23 | 95 | 43.2%41 W · 54 L | +3.2wins | +0.03per pick | 40cpaid | +9.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x70ea…ed7bbacked Yes | 76c | 43.61$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.47 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.25per pick | 75cpaid | +32.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb611…9a12backed Yes | 77c | 42.1$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.68 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.23per pick | 77cpaid | +29.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8b28…a656backed Yes | 77c | 41.65$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.58 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.23per pick | 77cpaid | +29.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5137…8e20backed Yes | 78c | 40.71$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.95 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.22per pick | 78cpaid | +28.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb447…8582backed Yes | 77c | 36.75$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.45 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -1.3wins | -0.27per pick | 67cpaid | -33.2%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x577a…4349backed No | 58c | 36$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.88 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.9wins | +0.23per pick | 52cpaid | +50%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x63bb…3dc5backed No | 58c | 35$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.3 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.6wins | +0.21per pick | 45cpaid | +76.4%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4fee…6d03backed Yes | 77c | 33.14$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.62 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | -0.5wins | -0.08per pick | 58cpaid | -17.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4eac…8469backed Yes | 76c | 32.95$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.91 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.10per pick | 76cpaid | -12.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe3bc…cab7backed Yes | 77c | 32.47$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.47 | 10 | 70%7 W · 3 L | +3.0wins | +0.30per pick | 40cpaid | +333.9%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xdc35…3d85backed Yes | 79c | 31.53$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.64 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.11per pick | 78cpaid | -13.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe956…4361backed Yes | 77c | 29.71$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.83 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | -1.2wins | -0.15per pick | 65cpaid | -23.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8083…1a21backed Yes | 77c | 28.18$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.48 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.11per pick | 77cpaid | -13.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xab3d…bc8bbacked Yes | 77c | 24.94$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.74 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 76cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb680…b6a2backed Yes | 77c | 23.27$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.35 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.11per pick | 77cpaid | -13.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe7e4…4507backed Yes | 77c | 22.64$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.31 | 7 | 85.7%6 W · 1 L | +1.5wins | +0.21per pick | 65cpaid | +43.7%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x32b1…5f2fbacked Yes | 77c | 20.9$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.81 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.10per pick | 77cpaid | -13.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcb78…b84ebacked Yes | 76c | 16.3$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.91 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.10per pick | 76cpaid | -12.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NBA and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the Cavaliers beat the Heat 4-0this page
- Will the Cavaliers beat the Heat 4-1No won
- Will the Cavaliers beat the Heat 4-2No won
- Will the Cavaliers beat the Heat 4-3No won
- Will the Heat beat the Cavaliers 4-0No won
- Will the Heat beat the Cavaliers 4-3No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.