Tennis · resolved market
Wuxi: Keegan Smith vs Yunchaokete Bu
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x97d7f312e78fde010f020bd2f21c4014e7e453f5865fe755bb3342c7e80c031d
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yunchaokete Buof Keegan Smith, Yunchaokete Bu
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Tennisevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $35,973
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $38,309
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $35,973 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 47 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Tennis is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Tennis | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xfe78…0319backed Keegan Smith | 10c | 12,479$1,264 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,263.8 | 8,828 | 36.1%3,190 W · 5,638 L | -193.3wins | -0.02per pick | 38cpaid | -27.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5268…135dbacked Keegan Smith | 10c | 3,161$327 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$326.8 | 4,185 | 44.7%1,871 W · 2,314 L | +14.9wins | 0.00per pick | 44cpaid | -17.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xeb77…ef9ebacked Yunchaokete Bu | 77c | 2,612$2,000 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$612.07 | 940 | 68.1%640 W · 300 L | +9.0wins | +0.01per pick | 67cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Keegan Smith | 18c | 1,599$284 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$283.88 | 8,217 | 45.5%3,737 W · 4,480 L | +166.6wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -16.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcc00…79f8backed Yunchaokete Bu | 77c | 1,102$852 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$249.38 | 410 | 60.5%248 W · 162 L | -6.5wins | -0.02per pick | 62cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x363c…4463backed Keegan Smith | 10c | 1,078$108 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$107.75 | 274 | 31.8%87 W · 187 L | +12.4wins | +0.05per pick | 27cpaid | +38.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x42c9…9623backed Keegan Smith | 20c | 1,065$216 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$215.67 | 4,703 | 49.4%2,323 W · 2,380 L | +166.5wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2978…b511backed Keegan Smith | 11c | 1,057$115 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$114.58 | 423 | 32.4%137 W · 286 L | -3.5wins | -0.01per pick | 33cpaid | -15.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x160b…4296backed Keegan Smith | 24c | 1,041$250 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$249.84 | 1,658 | 49.9%828 W · 830 L | +7.9wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0xde9f…d43cbacked Keegan Smith | 11c | 960.97$107 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$106.67 | 6,599 | 50.7%3,343 W · 3,256 L | +259.7wins | +0.04per pick | 47cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xdbdd…a5debacked Keegan Smith | 25c | 750$188 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$187.5 | 6,439 | 54.4%3,502 W · 2,937 L | +285.2wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | +26.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc4db…7e0cbacked Keegan Smith | 24c | 718.41$169 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$168.83 | 3,871 | 35%1,353 W · 2,518 L | +92.5wins | +0.02per pick | 33cpaid | +8.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1f5a…4a26backed Yunchaokete Bu | 80c | 625$500 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$125 | 22 | 59.1%13 W · 9 L | -1.8wins | -0.08per pick | 67cpaid | -13.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0828…a1a6backed Yunchaokete Bu | 78c | 501.98$392 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$110.44 | 271 | 48%130 W · 141 L | -12.8wins | -0.05per pick | 53cpaid | -7.4%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4411…985ebacked Yunchaokete Bu | 76c | 458.88$349 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$110.13 | 2,145 | 54.2%1,162 W · 983 L | -1.6wins | 0.00per pick | 54cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Yunchaokete Bu | 78c | 353.84$275 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$79.16 | 11,435 | 43.4%4,959 W · 6,476 L | +17.8wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0e1b…ecafbacked Keegan Smith | 11c | 339.68$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.06 | 2,523 | 39.6%1,000 W · 1,523 L | -3.1wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | -13.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x400d…e759backed Yunchaokete Bu | 73c | 319.98$234 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$86.39 | 608 | 56.6%344 W · 264 L | +4.8wins | +0.01per pick | 56cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf16d…b7f9backed Keegan Smith | 23c | 287.59$66 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$65.61 | 160 | 29.4%47 W · 113 L | -6.6wins | -0.04per pick | 33cpaid | -23.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5628…abbcbacked Keegan Smith | 21c | 281.53$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60.22 | 2,229 | 45%1,002 W · 1,227 L | +3.4wins | 0.00per pick | 45cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd038…8f51backed Keegan Smith | 13c | 249$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.37 | 4,288 | 40.5%1,737 W · 2,551 L | -139.3wins | -0.03per pick | 44cpaid | -20.5%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf19c…512cbacked Keegan Smith | 24c | 208.33$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 11 | 18.2%2 W · 9 L | -2.3wins | -0.21per pick | 39cpaid | -69.6%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xc33e…b4b6backed Keegan Smith | 25c | 180$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45 | 185 | 45.4%84 W · 101 L | +8.3wins | +0.05per pick | 41cpaid | +8.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x03ba…bebabacked Keegan Smith | 13c | 179.75$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.85 | 1,028 | 43.3%445 W · 583 L | -24.5wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -21.5%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa724…7bdabacked Keegan Smith | 11c | 176.99$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.47 | 297 | 54.5%162 W · 135 L | -3.7wins | -0.01per pick | 56cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x60a3…3850backed Keegan Smith | 11c | 146.5$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.51 | 856 | 24.4%209 W · 647 L | -9.7wins | -0.01per pick | 26cpaid | -25.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc314…6a46backed Keegan Smith | 14c | 141.43$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.8 | 184 | 10.9%20 W · 164 L | -10.2wins | -0.06per pick | 16cpaid | -31%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1e3b…e232backed Keegan Smith | 23c | 134.75$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.44 | 3,901 | 50.1%1,953 W · 1,948 L | -13.2wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xecb5…72d7backed Yunchaokete Bu | 80c | 125$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25 | 22 | 50%11 W · 11 L | -3.6wins | -0.16per pick | 66cpaid | -29.7%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x5df5…c44cbacked Keegan Smith | 18c | 103.74$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.17 | 1,354 | 43.9%595 W · 759 L | -62.8wins | -0.05per pick | 49cpaid | -24.9%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe00d…4251backed Keegan Smith | 21c | 95.24$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 197 | 61.4%121 W · 76 L | -5.3wins | -0.03per pick | 64cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7479…e171backed Keegan Smith | 24c | 95$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.05 | 283 | 48.4%137 W · 146 L | +1.4wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xee0a…36d8backed Yunchaokete Bu | 78c | 89.74$70 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.74 | 382 | 62.3%238 W · 144 L | -9.4wins | -0.02per pick | 65cpaid | -2.6%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1d50…d283backed Keegan Smith | 24c | 83.31$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 260 | 47.3%123 W · 137 L | -2.0wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -14.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x202f…7b58backed Keegan Smith | 27c | 74.07$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 98 | 39.8%39 W · 59 L | -4.1wins | -0.04per pick | 44cpaid | -18%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe5b1…30b2backed Yunchaokete Bu | 80c | 66.83$53 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.37 | 1,276 | 61%778 W · 498 L | +27.7wins | +0.02per pick | 59cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb66c…a0f5backed Keegan Smith | 25c | 42.25$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.5 | 87 | 37.9%33 W · 54 L | -6.3wins | -0.07per pick | 45cpaid | -17.5%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xd3cb…95c4backed Yunchaokete Bu | 76c | 39.47$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.47 | 52 | 57.7%30 W · 22 L | -2.9wins | -0.06per pick | 63cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x300a…40d3backed Yunchaokete Bu | 80c | 31.25$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.25 | 114 | 69.3%79 W · 35 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 69cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x877c…e669backed Yunchaokete Bu | 72c | 28.64$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.02 | 229 | 63.3%145 W · 84 L | +2.8wins | +0.01per pick | 62cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9694…b7adbacked Yunchaokete Bu | 77c | 27.7$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.37 | 2,058 | 59.5%1,225 W · 833 L | -1.0wins | 0.00per pick | 60cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x75ba…cf3fbacked Yunchaokete Bu | 77c | 21.83$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.02 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -1.1wins | -0.38per pick | 71cpaid | -56.7%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2262…26fbbacked Yunchaokete Bu | 80c | 16.25$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.25 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.20per pick | 80cpaid | +25%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x82a5…674ebacked Yunchaokete Bu | 76c | 16.12$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.87 | 328 | 53%174 W · 154 L | +8.9wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb6b3…5821backed Yunchaokete Bu | 77c | 14.29$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.29 | 85 | 61.2%52 W · 33 L | -2.9wins | -0.03per pick | 65cpaid | -5.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xacf2…d272backed Yunchaokete Bu | 74c | 14$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.64 | 103 | 35%36 W · 67 L | -5.6wins | -0.05per pick | 40cpaid | -19%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x46f1…ffdebacked Yunchaokete Bu | 80c | 13.75$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2.75 | 37 | 70.3%26 W · 11 L | +0.9wins | +0.02per pick | 68cpaid | +6.2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Tennis and say nothing about this market.
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.