NHL · resolved market
Lightning vs. Panthers: O/U 5.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x97e5c82792ec37446a405312c5bf8c8df920f19bf0fd0302481b475a1755162d
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Underof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NHLevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $14,555
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $14,620
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $14,555 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 28 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NHL is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NHL | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x9165…5b98backed Under | 48c | 7,702$3,680 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4,021.78 | 119 | 55.5%66 W · 53 L | +3.6wins | +0.03per pick | 52cpaid | +6.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x699f…d5c6backed Over | 54c | 3,500$1,890 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,890 | 183 | 45.9%84 W · 99 L | -10.1wins | -0.06per pick | 51cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x16b2…a881backed Under | 46c | 3,500$1,610 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,890 | 881 | 51.2%451 W · 430 L | +10.4wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xee61…debfbacked Over | 52c | 3,231$1,696 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,695.52 | 2,894 | 51.3%1,484 W · 1,410 L | +58.0wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +4.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x507e…beaebacked Over | 52c | 1,942$1,010 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,009.84 | 2,664 | 51.6%1,375 W · 1,289 L | +58.0wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdbb9…ed8dbacked Over | 52c | 1,225$637 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$637 | 1,230 | 53.7%661 W · 569 L | -9.1wins | -0.01per pick | 54cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8717…49a8backed Under | 46c | 1,150$529 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$621 | 301 | 52.5%158 W · 143 L | +17.8wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | +12.6%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf6a3…4ebebacked Over | 54c | 1,150$621 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$621 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -1.3wins | -0.22per pick | 56cpaid | -43.7%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf457…d1a6backed Over | 55c | 545.45$300 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$300 | 86 | 48.8%42 W · 44 L | -2.6wins | -0.03per pick | 52cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb080…5eddbacked Under | 48c | 515$245 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$270.15 | 162 | 46.9%76 W · 86 L | -4.8wins | -0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb113…8bc6backed Under | 45c | 443.99$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$244.19 | 495 | 46.5%230 W · 265 L | -10.5wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -7.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x42b5…b5b6backed Under | 46c | 370.37$170 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$200 | 1,377 | 49.1%676 W · 701 L | +39.2wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +5.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x84d9…76dbbacked Over | 54c | 370.37$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 485 | 52.2%253 W · 232 L | +8.1wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6d3c…d294backed Over | 52c | 291.48$152 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$151.57 | 1,555 | 51.4%800 W · 755 L | +12.2wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe83c…5e8fbacked Over | 52c | 288$150 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$149.76 | 728 | 47.9%349 W · 379 L | -1.7wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe60a…6a47backed Over | 54c | 271$146 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$146.34 | 1,948 | 49.4%962 W · 986 L | +24.9wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb47e…c602backed Over | 52c | 200$104 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$104 | 384 | 45.8%176 W · 208 L | -10.1wins | -0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -7.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8059…c043backed Over | 54c | 200$108 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$108 | 366 | 52.7%193 W · 173 L | +3.5wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9f1f…0b36backed Over | 55c | 130$72 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$71.5 | 94 | 44.7%42 W · 52 L | -4.3wins | -0.05per pick | 49cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xde04…fa37backed Over | 28c | 100$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28 | 2,314 | 46.5%1,075 W · 1,239 L | -7.5wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x06eb…1a5fbacked Under | 72c | 100$72 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28 | 40 | 47.5%19 W · 21 L | -5.4wins | -0.14per pick | 61cpaid | -24.6%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xe71f…09f2backed Over | 54c | 73.54$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.71 | 21 | 61.9%13 W · 8 L | +1.9wins | +0.09per pick | 53cpaid | +17.7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe7c6…5210backed Under | 47c | 70$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.1 | 106 | 52.8%56 W · 50 L | +2.4wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +4.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4c9b…e74abacked Over | 54c | 68.52$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37 | 784 | 43.8%343 W · 441 L | +8.1wins | +0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf3fc…1e14backed Over | 54c | 59.11$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.92 | 79 | 35.4%28 W · 51 L | -6.4wins | -0.08per pick | 44cpaid | -9.2%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xc049…48abbacked Over | 54c | 57.26$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.92 | 148 | 44.6%66 W · 82 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 44cpaid | +6.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xda7a…d321backed Over | 54c | 36.89$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 255 | 50.2%128 W · 127 L | +0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8a3a…d5b0backed Over | 55c | 27.27$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 32 | 53.1%17 W · 15 L | -1.0wins | -0.03per pick | 56cpaid | -5.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NHL and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 4 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Lightning vs. Panthers: O/U 5.5this page
- Lightning vs. PanthersLightning won
- Lightning vs. Panthers: O/U 6.5Under won
- Spread: Panthers (-1.5)Lightning won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.