Bundesliga · resolved market
Will 1. FC Nürnberg vs. SC Preußen Münster end in a draw?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x983f81cb90037d4d61139fb395c4371269fa31bb81427a16ee017b610a2313fd
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Bundesligaevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $33,875
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $46,928
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $33,875 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a prediction-market account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 38 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Bundesliga is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Bundesliga | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x80cf…427dbacked Yes | 20c | 11,000$2,200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8,800 | 104 | 45.2%47 W · 57 L | +3.8wins | +0.04per pick | 42cpaid | +16.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed No | 77c | 7,863$6,028 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$6,028.03 | 3,284 | 42.6%1,399 W · 1,885 L | -74.0wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -18.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xea2b…1fc6backed No | 80c | 3,744$2,995 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,995 | 62 | 51.6%32 W · 30 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +15.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd6a3…9489backed Yes | 37c | 686$254 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$432.18 | 536 | 45.9%246 W · 290 L | +6.7wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfce4…5cd0backed Yes | 79c | 469.78$371 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$98.99 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.21per pick | 79cpaid | +26.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb485…20a5backed Yes | 78c | 389.4$305 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$84.4 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +0.1wins | +0.02per pick | 65cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x976a…5fbbbacked Yes | 58c | 347.02$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$147.12 | 12 | 33.3%4 W · 8 L | -0.3wins | -0.03per pick | 36cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe216…7448backed Yes | 31c | 241.94$75 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$166.94 | 12 | 16.7%2 W · 10 L | -1.5wins | -0.12per pick | 29cpaid | -48.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfc8f…3782backed No | 27c | 226.85$62 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$62.23 | 119 | 31.1%37 W · 82 L | -9.8wins | -0.08per pick | 39cpaid | -23.7%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked No | 20c | 200.81$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.68 | 2,538 | 39.8%1,009 W · 1,529 L | -8.1wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x01c7…e995backed No | 39c | 153.05$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60.09 | 1,013 | 44.5%451 W · 562 L | -8.2wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -20.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x54ee…1943backed No | 61c | 97.2$59 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59.29 | 15 | 46.7%7 W · 8 L | -1.2wins | -0.08per pick | 55cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9ae2…20a3backed No | 24c | 82.23$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 25 | 56%14 W · 11 L | -0.5wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -7.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0f97…a9b3backed Yes | 49c | 79.59$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.59 | 27 | 40.7%11 W · 16 L | +1.4wins | +0.05per pick | 36cpaid | -6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfd43…7b3fbacked No | 53c | 75.47$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 58 | 58.6%34 W · 24 L | +3.7wins | +0.06per pick | 52cpaid | +12%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x908a…ad16backed No | 76c | 75$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57.34 | 511 | 36.8%188 W · 323 L | -28.0wins | -0.05per pick | 42cpaid | -24.2%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3bbf…f4e6backed Yes | 67c | 70$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.1 | 35 | 65.7%23 W · 12 L | +1.3wins | +0.04per pick | 62cpaid | +6.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe734…c535backed Yes | 79c | 69.62$55 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.62 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.21per pick | 79cpaid | +26.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfc5f…e8a1backed Yes | 32c | 58.41$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.72 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.7wins | +0.68per pick | 32cpaid | +212.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0bfb…9f00backed No | 69c | 57.97$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 22 | 81.8%18 W · 4 L | +1.9wins | +0.09per pick | 73cpaid | +11.7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xeceb…150dbacked No | 80c | 57.25$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.8 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.6wins | -0.14per pick | 64cpaid | -20.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3d5f…7e6fbacked Yes | 28c | 53.57$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.57 | 93 | 45.2%42 W · 51 L | +0.8wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6a63…b752backed Yes | 51c | 50.98$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.98 | 16 | 50%8 W · 8 L | +1.5wins | +0.09per pick | 41cpaid | +14.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x587b…2622backed Yes | 28c | 50$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36 | 194 | 58.2%113 W · 81 L | +9.8wins | +0.05per pick | 53cpaid | +28%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xbfb0…466fbacked No | 23c | 47.72$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.88 | 11 | 45.5%5 W · 6 L | +1.0wins | +0.09per pick | 36cpaid | +6.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x972b…78babacked No | 72c | 44.67$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.17 | 569 | 51.8%295 W · 274 L | +10.0wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa870…2cd1backed No | 73c | 35.09$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.62 | 112 | 81.3%91 W · 21 L | +6.1wins | +0.05per pick | 76cpaid | +7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xadfb…c2efbacked No | 50c | 33.75$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.93 | 386 | 46.9%181 W · 205 L | -7.6wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -7.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe92e…1e38backed Yes | 62c | 32.26$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.26 | 10 | 50%5 W · 5 L | -0.2wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -11%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x651a…a2ccbacked Yes | 63c | 31.75$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.75 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | -2.2wins | -0.32per pick | 60cpaid | -57.2%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x6e75…e81dbacked No | 74c | 31$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.94 | 8 | 62.5%5 W · 3 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 63cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2652…2a1dbacked Yes | 58c | 27.52$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.59 | 782 | 48.8%382 W · 400 L | -28.1wins | -0.04per pick | 52cpaid | -12.2%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa877…439ebacked Yes | 78c | 25.64$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.64 | 8 | 87.5%7 W · 1 L | +1.9wins | +0.24per pick | 64cpaid | +34.9%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xdbdd…a5debacked No | 76c | 21.46$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.31 | 486 | 58.6%285 W · 201 L | +44.5wins | +0.09per pick | 49cpaid | +33%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x54e1…9de8backed Yes | 55c | 20$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9 | 20 | 40%8 W · 12 L | -1.9wins | -0.09per pick | 49cpaid | -9.2%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6cd7…88d8backed Yes | 75c | 20$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5 | 13 | 84.6%11 W · 2 L | +2.4wins | +0.19per pick | 66cpaid | +26.9%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x1d94…9100backed Yes | 77c | 17$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.91 | 762 | 34.8%265 W · 497 L | +9.4wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe9da…ed70backed No | 74c | 14.1$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.43 | 64 | 70.3%45 W · 19 L | +5.6wins | +0.09per pick | 62cpaid | +14.9%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Bundesliga and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will 1. FC Nürnberg vs. SC Preußen Münster end in a draw?this page
- Will 1. FC Nürnberg win on 2026-01-30?No won
- Will SC Preußen Münster win on 2026-01-30?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.