Bundesliga · resolved market
Will SC Preußen Münster win on 2026-01-30?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xc4264c704724587546a008ee5f84b2be8bf0657903f6672804fb8d965994da57
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Bundesligaevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $10,859
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $11,072
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $10,859 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 36 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Bundesliga is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Bundesliga | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x1a43…565fbacked Yes | 30c | 3,354$1,000 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,000 | 11 | 18.2%2 W · 9 L | -2.4wins | -0.22per pick | 40cpaid | -54.1%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x507e…beaebacked No | 71c | 2,937$2,089 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$848.46 | 1,355 | 50.9%690 W · 665 L | +12.7wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc400…7c6bbacked Yes | 28c | 600$168 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$168 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | +0.4wins | +0.05per pick | 45cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8bdc…b5e9backed Yes | 28c | 465.07$130 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$130.22 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | -0.2wins | -0.02per pick | 17cpaid | -62.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x237e…a5f0backed Yes | 13c | 462.31$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 22 | 27.3%6 W · 16 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 29cpaid | -16.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9b6b…b084backed No | 72c | 413.99$298 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$115.92 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.28per pick | 72cpaid | +38.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2a9b…7303backed No | 75c | 400$300 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$100 | 64 | 50%32 W · 32 L | -1.3wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7ea5…de7bbacked No | 71c | 290.62$207 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$83.87 | 1,681 | 45.2%759 W · 922 L | +6.8wins | 0.00per pick | 45cpaid | -2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0d42…f124backed No | 78c | 280.27$219 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$61.66 | 62 | 27.4%17 W · 45 L | -1.5wins | -0.02per pick | 30cpaid | -12%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6668…ad96backed No | 72c | 275$198 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$77 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +1.5wins | +0.49per pick | 51cpaid | +132.6%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xfc8d…55c5backed Yes | 28c | 272.8$78 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$77.58 | 17 | 58.8%10 W · 7 L | +1.8wins | +0.11per pick | 48cpaid | +14.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4d84…21b1backed No | 73c | 262.26$191 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$70.81 | 99 | 51.5%51 W · 48 L | -1.4wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -9.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x12fe…38cfbacked Yes | 22c | 250$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55 | 19 | 21.1%4 W · 15 L | -2.6wins | -0.13per pick | 34cpaid | -45.7%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x6c0b…43cbbacked Yes | 24c | 202.56$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.61 | 228 | 29.4%67 W · 161 L | +1.3wins | +0.01per pick | 29cpaid | +4.7%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc513…ffe7backed Yes | 20c | 200$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 14 | 21.4%3 W · 11 L | -1.1wins | -0.08per pick | 29cpaid | -57%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa178…11a2backed Yes | 14c | 178.57$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 190 | 55.3%105 W · 85 L | +5.1wins | +0.03per pick | 53cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7102…28b4backed Yes | 20c | 156.7$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.34 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.23per pick | 23cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x47d1…7618backed No | 76c | 131.58$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.58 | 5 | 80%4 W · 1 L | +0.4wins | +0.08per pick | 72cpaid | +14.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf60d…0cccbacked No | 72c | 129.99$94 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.4 | 7 | 71.4%5 W · 2 L | +1.6wins | +0.23per pick | 49cpaid | +130.2%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xfc8f…3782backed Yes | 24c | 83$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.92 | 119 | 31.1%37 W · 82 L | -9.8wins | -0.08per pick | 39cpaid | -23.7%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x0157…340fbacked Yes | 29c | 68.93$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.99 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | +1.0wins | +0.14per pick | 44cpaid | +23.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9773…67e8backed Yes | 25c | 67$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.75 | 11 | 54.5%6 W · 5 L | +1.4wins | +0.13per pick | 42cpaid | +41%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7d77…bc86backed No | 76c | 65.79$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.79 | 5 | 80%4 W · 1 L | +0.4wins | +0.08per pick | 72cpaid | +14.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed No | 74c | 64.76$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.57 | 3,284 | 42.6%1,399 W · 1,885 L | -74.0wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -18.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x65ce…b90bbacked No | 80c | 60$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | +0.4wins | +0.06per pick | 44cpaid | -33.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc006…036abacked Yes | 25c | 59.4$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.85 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -1.2wins | -0.20per pick | 54cpaid | -40.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x16b2…aa5abacked Yes | 20c | 54$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.8 | 117 | 62.4%73 W · 44 L | +6.5wins | +0.06per pick | 57cpaid | +8.3%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0f2c…ac5ebacked Yes | 27c | 46$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.42 | 14 | 42.9%6 W · 8 L | -1.5wins | -0.11per pick | 53cpaid | -14.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe6dd…52dbbacked Yes | 25c | 40$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 9 | 22.2%2 W · 7 L | +0.2wins | +0.03per pick | 20cpaid | 0%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf21a…0751backed No | 75c | 35$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.75 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 62cpaid | -14.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa870…2cd1backed No | 75c | 34.18$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.54 | 112 | 81.3%91 W · 21 L | +6.1wins | +0.05per pick | 76cpaid | +7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x96d2…dc9bbacked No | 75c | 32$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -33.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2999…50bcbacked No | 73c | 23$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.21 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.7wins | +0.36per pick | 64cpaid | +59.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xddf6…9bd5backed No | 73c | 23$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.21 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.7wins | -0.15per pick | 55cpaid | -47.3%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x200f…7a96backed No | 76c | 18$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.28 | 1,083 | 50.8%550 W · 533 L | +8.2wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xadfb…c2efbacked No | 79c | 16.92$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.49 | 386 | 46.9%181 W · 205 L | -7.6wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -7.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Bundesliga and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will SC Preußen Münster win on 2026-01-30?this page
- Will 1. FC Nürnberg vs. SC Preußen Münster end in a draw?Yes won
- Will 1. FC Nürnberg win on 2026-01-30?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.