Tennis · resolved market
French Open: Paul vs. Alcaraz
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x984df48daa68d3fbac2afb62452d07b16558f3660a3128dc63c680344e296f08
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Alcarazof Paul, Alcaraz
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Tennisevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $206,578
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $212,742
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $206,578 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 35 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Tennis is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Tennis | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x15e0…8d86backed Paul | 2c | 120,805$2,925 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,925.13 | 20 | 30%6 W · 14 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 30cpaid | -38.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7fd5…d06bbacked Paul | 10c | 9,979$998 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$997.86 | 47 | 23.4%11 W · 36 L | -3.4wins | -0.07per pick | 31cpaid | -24.4%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x821d…0a01backed Paul | 9c | 8,194$737 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$737.42 | 99 | 35.4%35 W · 64 L | -0.7wins | -0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x067f…e041backed Paul | 8c | 5,000$400 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$400 | 178 | 23%41 W · 137 L | -8.6wins | -0.05per pick | 28cpaid | -43.2%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe83c…5e8fbacked Paul | 10c | 4,426$443 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$442.58 | 627 | 42.4%266 W · 361 L | +0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbba2…5172backed Paul | 9c | 4,297$387 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$386.76 | 14 | 14.3%2 W · 12 L | -0.3wins | -0.02per pick | 17cpaid | -30.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7f65…d7aebacked Paul | 9c | 4,157$374 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$374.1 | 65 | 35.4%23 W · 42 L | -0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 36cpaid | -15.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb786…b18dbacked Paul | 8c | 3,654$292 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$292.29 | 391 | 44.2%173 W · 218 L | -4.7wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -6.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7d07…0351backed Paul | 4c | 3,300$136 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$136.2 | 138 | 44.2%61 W · 77 L | +3.9wins | +0.03per pick | 41cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x97e1…017bbacked Paul | 6c | 3,267$186 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$186.29 | 132 | 45.5%60 W · 72 L | +3.8wins | +0.03per pick | 43cpaid | +11.4%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x288e…9ca7backed Paul | 10c | 2,419$237 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$237.36 | 24 | 54.2%13 W · 11 L | +1.9wins | +0.08per pick | 46cpaid | -13%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x784b…de47backed Paul | 10c | 2,082$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 21cpaid | -14.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8889…a9d1backed Paul | 10c | 2,000$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 91 | 49.5%45 W · 46 L | +0.7wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +4.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x29de…02aabacked Paul | 10c | 2,000$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 127 | 52%66 W · 61 L | +3.9wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xad94…85b1backed Paul | 11c | 1,876$201 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200.84 | 122 | 31.1%38 W · 84 L | +0.9wins | +0.01per pick | 30cpaid | +12.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9d7b…edd2backed Paul | 12c | 1,853$216 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$216.5 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.3wins | -0.11per pick | 11cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x97ae…82bdbacked Paul | 6c | 1,500$93 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$92.77 | 220 | 21.8%48 W · 172 L | -6.6wins | -0.03per pick | 25cpaid | -14.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfc48…6dcdbacked Paul | 10c | 1,000$99 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$99.31 | 26 | 53.8%14 W · 12 L | +1.7wins | +0.07per pick | 47cpaid | +2.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2934…0b51backed Paul | 11c | 908.48$98 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$97.67 | 296 | 36.8%109 W · 187 L | -3.7wins | -0.01per pick | 38cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x72c7…7909backed Paul | 8c | 899.99$72 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$72 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.2wins | -0.06per pick | 31cpaid | -45.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5308…3221backed Paul | 4c | 729.68$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.47 | 77 | 61%47 W · 30 L | +1.6wins | +0.02per pick | 59cpaid | +9.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xeaf6…8e9abacked Paul | 9c | 359.17$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.33 | 22 | 27.3%6 W · 16 L | +0.9wins | +0.04per pick | 23cpaid | +9.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6979…d7a2backed Paul | 10c | 340$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.8wins | -0.19per pick | 19cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5e42…9003backed Paul | 10c | 310.83$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.89 | 21 | 38.1%8 W · 13 L | -1.5wins | -0.07per pick | 45cpaid | -34.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5a06…1e43backed Paul | 9c | 300$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27 | 31 | 25.8%8 W · 23 L | -1.3wins | -0.04per pick | 30cpaid | -34.1%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd757…42acbacked Paul | 10c | 300$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.15per pick | 15cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf2fa…8135backed Paul | 7c | 229.8$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.68 | 19 | 21.1%4 W · 15 L | +0.5wins | +0.03per pick | 18cpaid | +52%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x71c1…e358backed Paul | 7c | 225$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 316 | 43%136 W · 180 L | -3.6wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8b32…5950backed Paul | 10c | 215$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.5 | 54 | 38.9%21 W · 33 L | -2.4wins | -0.05per pick | 43cpaid | -6.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6239…c24fbacked Paul | 8c | 213.17$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.03 | 149 | 49%73 W · 76 L | +3.1wins | +0.02per pick | 47cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8806…6a9bbacked Paul | 9c | 182.32$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.41 | 18 | 44.4%8 W · 10 L | +0.5wins | +0.03per pick | 41cpaid | -27.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7280…0a3cbacked Paul | 10c | 111.1$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.11 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.3wins | +0.08per pick | 42cpaid | -24%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xab3e…6939backed Paul | 10c | 103.3$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.33 | 56 | 17.9%10 W · 46 L | -3.7wins | -0.07per pick | 24cpaid | -35.6%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x939f…f057backed Paul | 10c | 100$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 9 | 11.1%1 W · 8 L | -1.3wins | -0.15per pick | 26cpaid | -75.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xaa78…7248backed Paul | 10c | 100$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 15 | 6.7%1 W · 14 L | -1.2wins | -0.08per pick | 15cpaid | -81%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Tennis and say nothing about this market.
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.