Dota2 · resolved market
Rune Eaters to win 2-0?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x986dfd81e40383f8731b535af72b423d7d5febab0d2a24f0f9708a6e7bd3e68e
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Dota2every record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $5,389
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $6,619
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $5,389 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 26 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Dota2 is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Dota2 | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x4d02…bfecbacked No | 68c | 661.66$453 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$452.62 | 19 | 31.6%6 W · 13 L | -2.1wins | -0.11per pick | 43cpaid | -43.3%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2776…4ecbbacked Yes | 32c | 625$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$425 | 72 | 62.5%45 W · 27 L | +2.8wins | +0.04per pick | 59cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x41a5…75bbbacked Yes | 31c | 466.51$145 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$321.16 | 614 | 49.5%304 W · 310 L | +9.6wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3471…f17ebacked Yes | 13c | 463.11$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$402.91 | 1,155 | 47.8%552 W · 603 L | +29.5wins | +0.03per pick | 45cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbad2…5296backed No | 68c | 461.03$314 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$314.44 | 67 | 26.9%18 W · 49 L | -5.2wins | -0.08per pick | 35cpaid | -14.7%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xbbc8…4f5bbacked Yes | 76c | 334$253 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$80.52 | 50 | 56%28 W · 22 L | +2.7wins | +0.05per pick | 51cpaid | 0%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd331…733cbacked No | 69c | 310$213 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$213.43 | 165 | 50.3%83 W · 82 L | -5.5wins | -0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x664a…fc5fbacked Yes | 62c | 289.47$179 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$110.46 | 251 | 43.4%109 W · 142 L | -5.2wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -22.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6ffb…f7f0backed Yes | 20c | 236$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$188.8 | 515 | 50.9%262 W · 253 L | +15.5wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | +7.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x53ab…65aabacked No | 66c | 214.12$141 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$141.32 | 81 | 46.9%38 W · 43 L | -1.9wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x077c…98abbacked Yes | 34c | 202.94$69 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$133.94 | 155 | 46.5%72 W · 83 L | -2.7wins | -0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xba06…8024backed No | 37c | 186.07$69 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$68.85 | 159 | 50.3%80 W · 79 L | +1.4wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2f26…0d8fbacked Yes | 47c | 186$87 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$99.35 | 80 | 48.8%39 W · 41 L | +2.4wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8dd8…9a1cbacked Yes | 80c | 160$128 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32 | 143 | 36.4%52 W · 91 L | -4.8wins | -0.03per pick | 40cpaid | -31.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe66e…946bbacked Yes | 31c | 116$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$80.04 | 210 | 43.8%92 W · 118 L | +1.1wins | +0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x41f4…ee16backed Yes | 69c | 97$67 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.64 | 385 | 47.5%183 W · 202 L | -0.9wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -10.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8f4d…6211backed Yes | 61c | 81.97$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.97 | 11 | 54.5%6 W · 5 L | +0.6wins | +0.05per pick | 49cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb5a2…a9bfbacked Yes | 31c | 80.65$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$55.65 | 194 | 55.7%108 W · 86 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 56cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe733…f6c9backed Yes | 63c | 79.6$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.6 | 86 | 62.8%54 W · 32 L | +4.6wins | +0.05per pick | 57cpaid | +11.7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5210…bd53backed No | 69c | 67$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.23 | 529 | 50.9%269 W · 260 L | +0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0f67…866ebacked Yes | 33c | 58.82$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.68 | 43 | 72.1%31 W · 12 L | +4.7wins | +0.11per pick | 61cpaid | +14.3%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xb69f…25bdbacked Yes | 33c | 57.58$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.58 | 102 | 58.8%60 W · 42 L | +5.1wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +9.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x736d…c635backed No | 69c | 50$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.5 | 971 | 42.7%415 W · 556 L | -20.4wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9332…a3dbbacked Yes | 42c | 46.95$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.35 | 760 | 48.6%369 W · 391 L | +26.2wins | +0.03per pick | 45cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9d94…017dbacked No | 66c | 38.13$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.31 | 1,521 | 37.9%576 W · 945 L | -57.8wins | -0.04per pick | 42cpaid | -26.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9a53…71a3backed Yes | 32c | 31.25$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.25 | 185 | 62.7%116 W · 69 L | +2.1wins | +0.01per pick | 62cpaid | +4.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Dota2 and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 2 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Rune Eaters to win 2-0?this page
- Poor Rangers to win 2-0?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.