MLB · resolved market
Minnesota Twins vs. Houston Astros
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x98763199d332899321e1fb5db16164592fafbf6deb9cf0e3b6616ba141f68a71
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Minnesota Twinsof Minnesota Twins, Houston Astros
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $30,567
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $30,757
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $30,567 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 34 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in MLB | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x9a8c…ba13backed Houston Astros | 47c | 15,837$7,500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$7,500 | 158 | 51.9%82 W · 76 L | -12.5wins | -0.08per pick | 60cpaid | -10.6%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xb786…b18dbacked Minnesota Twins | 52c | 9,706$5,051 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4,655.25 | 1,591 | 50.3%801 W · 790 L | +68.9wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd9a0…88eebacked Minnesota Twins | 52c | 7,731$4,058 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,672.64 | 283 | 48.8%138 W · 145 L | +6.3wins | +0.02per pick | 47cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd44c…ab91backed Minnesota Twins | 54c | 5,400$2,920 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,480 | 161 | 51.6%83 W · 78 L | -7.7wins | -0.05per pick | 56cpaid | -9.6%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x480d…f219backed Houston Astros | 48c | 1,000$477 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$476.86 | 1,250 | 52.2%653 W · 597 L | -5.0wins | 0.00per pick | 53cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x29c0…efaabacked Minnesota Twins | 52c | 995.21$514 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$481.32 | 1,212 | 52.1%631 W · 581 L | +21.3wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +3.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2e25…ff35backed Houston Astros | 60c | 944.16$570 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$569.94 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -1.2wins | -0.30per pick | 55cpaid | -62.7%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb13d…2e90backed Houston Astros | 49c | 800$392 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$392 | 686 | 56.4%387 W · 299 L | +38.0wins | +0.06per pick | 51cpaid | +10%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe401…7b88backed Minnesota Twins | 68c | 593.73$404 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$189.79 | 9,728 | 46.3%4,506 W · 5,222 L | +32.8wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf699…07e1backed Minnesota Twins | 65c | 560$366 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$194.1 | 24 | 62.5%15 W · 9 L | +0.8wins | +0.03per pick | 59cpaid | +8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8c67…bb39backed Houston Astros | 35c | 500$177 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$177.25 | 37 | 43.2%16 W · 21 L | +0.4wins | +0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -12.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x24df…e8b2backed Minnesota Twins | 52c | 439.34$230 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$208.87 | 1,203 | 44.2%532 W · 671 L | +20.5wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7c85…77c6backed Houston Astros | 47c | 400$188 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$188 | 927 | 54.9%509 W · 418 L | -19.1wins | -0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9e87…8befbacked Minnesota Twins | 55c | 363.64$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$163.64 | 54 | 48.1%26 W · 28 L | -4.7wins | -0.09per pick | 57cpaid | -18.1%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xa6a8…5009backed Minnesota Twins | 42c | 345.2$144 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$200.79 | 2,274 | 43.2%983 W · 1,291 L | +43.8wins | +0.02per pick | 41cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8b7e…6a9fbacked Houston Astros | 49c | 204.08$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 2,033 | 52.4%1,066 W · 967 L | -35.5wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x11d7…52e1backed Minnesota Twins | 49c | 189.52$93 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$96.23 | 809 | 55.5%449 W · 360 L | +12.4wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5ea5…2af9backed Minnesota Twins | 55c | 181.82$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$81.82 | 61 | 49.2%30 W · 31 L | -4.6wins | -0.07per pick | 57cpaid | -15%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x931f…d15dbacked Minnesota Twins | 55c | 181.82$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$81.82 | 52 | 48.1%25 W · 27 L | -4.7wins | -0.09per pick | 57cpaid | -18.7%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xd55c…34febacked Houston Astros | 45c | 162.6$73 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$73.21 | 376 | 49.5%186 W · 190 L | +9.4wins | +0.02per pick | 47cpaid | +5.7%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdc4b…5a92backed Houston Astros | 48c | 104.17$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 2,267 | 53.3%1,208 W · 1,059 L | -12.4wins | -0.01per pick | 54cpaid | -1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x62a8…97d0backed Minnesota Twins | 56c | 100$56 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44 | 42 | 52.4%22 W · 20 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -7.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5036…416bbacked Minnesota Twins | 52c | 100$52 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48 | 19 | 68.4%13 W · 6 L | +3.3wins | +0.17per pick | 51cpaid | +35.3%equal weight | 58+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked Houston Astros | 57c | 95.91$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54.71 | 639 | 42.7%273 W · 366 L | +4.0wins | +0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -9.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x51dd…2f92backed Houston Astros | 57c | 87.72$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 19 | 52.6%10 W · 9 L | -0.4wins | -0.02per pick | 55cpaid | -8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa337…9e54backed Houston Astros | 48c | 51.94$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 944 | 55.3%522 W · 422 L | -2.9wins | 0.00per pick | 56cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xef63…96cbbacked Minnesota Twins | 56c | 50$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22 | 467 | 53.7%251 W · 216 L | -11.0wins | -0.02per pick | 56cpaid | -5.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x235a…2e57backed Minnesota Twins | 47c | 50$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.5 | 125 | 48%60 W · 65 L | +3.8wins | +0.03per pick | 45cpaid | +4.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0643…d46bbacked Houston Astros | 47c | 48.94$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23 | 405 | 57.8%234 W · 171 L | +7.6wins | +0.02per pick | 56cpaid | +3.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4e0a…e4e6backed Houston Astros | 45c | 35.28$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.87 | 229 | 46.3%106 W · 123 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x02ec…5412backed Houston Astros | 47c | 27.77$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.05 | 133 | 48.1%64 W · 69 L | -6.0wins | -0.04per pick | 53cpaid | -12.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3dd4…1b50backed Houston Astros | 47c | 25.74$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.1 | 2,045 | 53.8%1,100 W · 945 L | +32.7wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcc12…542ebacked Houston Astros | 46c | 23.72$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.8wins | -0.40per pick | 40cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0fa3…072dbacked Minnesota Twins | 47c | 22.81$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.09 | 83 | 47%39 W · 44 L | -2.9wins | -0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.