Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 25°C on March 23?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x987cf966f87083430a078b5177f5898ef0808adb6e7df017eb0293e345f982fe
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- Polymarket published no figure
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $8,122
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $8,122 — TailMyPicks’s own total, because the venue published none.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 66 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x76a6…b7dcbacked Yes | 22c | 396.1$87 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$86.78 | 148 | 34.5%51 W · 97 L | -3.3wins | -0.02per pick | 37cpaid | +1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x43cb…84dfbacked Yes | 63c | 311$195 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$194.72 | 6,787 | 39.1%2,654 W · 4,133 L | +256.4wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x92f3…c02abacked No | 57c | 263.27$151 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$112.46 | 14 | 85.7%12 W · 2 L | +2.8wins | +0.20per pick | 66cpaid | +35.1%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x993f…35cbbacked No | 45c | 217.81$99 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$118.83 | 1,842 | 63.5%1,170 W · 672 L | -42.5wins | -0.02per pick | 66cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2a04…b254backed Yes | 30c | 194.73$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58.31 | 598 | 18.4%110 W · 488 L | -8.7wins | -0.01per pick | 20cpaid | -25.4%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5f21…b376backed Yes | 20c | 158.56$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.49 | 17,355 | 19.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L | +396.7wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x43b1…aba6backed Yes | 44c | 155.36$68 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$68.1 | 774 | 28.6%221 W · 553 L | -5.5wins | -0.01per pick | 29cpaid | -24.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb5d8…9dd0backed Yes | 24c | 126.08$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.74 | 123 | 30.1%37 W · 86 L | +5.3wins | +0.04per pick | 26cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9d5a…67cebacked Yes | 32c | 115.14$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.35 | 111 | 28.8%32 W · 79 L | +0.7wins | +0.01per pick | 28cpaid | -11.6%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6ef3…f1c5backed Yes | 42c | 109.99$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.15 | 324 | 44.4%144 W · 180 L | -10.1wins | -0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1348…7037backed No | 31c | 103.31$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$70.85 | 176 | 65.9%116 W · 60 L | +12.7wins | +0.07per pick | 59cpaid | +18.9%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x9f4b…f9bfbacked Yes | 30c | 100.66$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 15 | 20%3 W · 12 L | -2.5wins | -0.17per pick | 37cpaid | -57.1%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x391d…def1backed No | 33c | 100.18$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$66.69 | 468 | 24.4%114 W · 354 L | -3.5wins | -0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -27.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8ed7…bb28backed Yes | 29c | 95.65$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.32 | 128 | 28.1%36 W · 92 L | +8.5wins | +0.07per pick | 22cpaid | +10.5%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x5368…2d62backed Yes | 17c | 90.62$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.61 | 1,804 | 27.4%494 W · 1,310 L | +27.6wins | +0.02per pick | 26cpaid | +14.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa16a…57d5backed Yes | 38c | 90$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.65 | 76 | 47.4%36 W · 40 L | +3.3wins | +0.04per pick | 43cpaid | -7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x241d…be08backed Yes | 17c | 88.24$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 50 | 24%12 W · 38 L | -2.6wins | -0.05per pick | 29cpaid | -19.7%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3bba…a2eabacked No | 42c | 87$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50.24 | 182 | 55.5%101 W · 81 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe678…9dcdbacked Yes | 16c | 82.06$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.3 | 32 | 3.1%1 W · 31 L | -3.4wins | -0.11per pick | 14cpaid | -95.7%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xfa28…c37ebacked Yes | 28c | 79.25$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22 | 3,939 | 35.3%1,392 W · 2,547 L | +35.4wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1a06…15a9backed Yes | 29c | 79.24$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.98 | 567 | 21.3%121 W · 446 L | -25.2wins | -0.04per pick | 26cpaid | -18.2%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8f34…2f50backed No | 68c | 74.65$51 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.14 | 4,120 | 60.8%2,506 W · 1,614 L | +32.7wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaf17…5c20backed No | 30c | 65.81$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45.79 | 1,787 | 25.7%460 W · 1,327 L | +132.5wins | +0.07per pick | 18cpaid | +50.8%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xe712…9a10backed Yes | 42c | 61.9$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26 | 868 | 47.7%414 W · 454 L | +40.7wins | +0.05per pick | 43cpaid | +6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd0d6…e222backed No | 78c | 57.3$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.34 | 19 | 47.4%9 W · 10 L | -3.5wins | -0.18per pick | 66cpaid | -32.2%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x3da3…0fdcbacked Yes | 19c | 54.04$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.44 | 1,024 | 25%256 W · 768 L | +20.4wins | +0.02per pick | 23cpaid | +39.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2dca…4bc5backed No | 74c | 50.72$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.36 | 32 | 62.5%20 W · 12 L | -0.8wins | -0.02per pick | 65cpaid | -7.4%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x83fe…23d9backed No | 69c | 50$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.5 | 327 | 60.6%198 W · 129 L | -4.4wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -7.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdd7a…7bfbbacked No | 72c | 48$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.64 | 4,961 | 68.3%3,386 W · 1,575 L | +65.6wins | +0.01per pick | 67cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3865…fcbebacked No | 42c | 46.09$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.6 | 1,002 | 60.9%610 W · 392 L | -26.2wins | -0.03per pick | 63cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x989a…b73fbacked Yes | 47c | 44.36$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.05 | 181 | 64.1%116 W · 65 L | +29.3wins | +0.16per pick | 48cpaid | +37%equal weight | 66+0.14 edge/pick |
| 0x044f…d1f1backed No | 28c | 42.69$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.88 | 8,162 | 49.4%4,035 W · 4,127 L | +269.7wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0044…cb2cbacked No | 26c | 41.59$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.7 | 368 | 19.6%72 W · 296 L | +21.9wins | +0.06per pick | 14cpaid | -4%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x1db9…29c9backed No | 76c | 40.68$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.68 | 7 | 71.4%5 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 72cpaid | +0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf876…8975backed No | 62c | 40.32$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.32 | 53 | 32.1%17 W · 36 L | -5.1wins | -0.10per pick | 42cpaid | -40.6%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xe573…ae05backed Yes | 44c | 36.4$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16 | 46 | 37%17 W · 29 L | -0.7wins | -0.02per pick | 38cpaid | -5.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe1f7…fd31backed No | 58c | 35.43$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.88 | 125 | 35.2%44 W · 81 L | -3.0wins | -0.02per pick | 38cpaid | -30.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6e3e…522abacked No | 58c | 34$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.28 | 102 | 37.3%38 W · 64 L | -5.2wins | -0.05per pick | 42cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4bdf…41dfbacked No | 67c | 33.2$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.01 | 43 | 44.2%19 W · 24 L | -5.1wins | -0.12per pick | 56cpaid | -37.6%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x0a59…8e5cbacked Yes | 36c | 30$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.9 | 303 | 33%100 W · 203 L | +16.1wins | +0.05per pick | 28cpaid | +24.4%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf9ee…44a4backed Yes | 34c | 30$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.2 | 113 | 41.6%47 W · 66 L | +7.4wins | +0.07per pick | 35cpaid | +20.1%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1c79…c259backed No | 61c | 30$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.65 | 34 | 67.6%23 W · 11 L | +2.7wins | +0.08per pick | 60cpaid | +13.1%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1d37…0ef1backed Yes | 72c | 30$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.6 | 102 | 58.8%60 W · 42 L | +2.6wins | +0.03per pick | 56cpaid | +11.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4248…60abbacked No | 70c | 29.67$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.95 | 2,219 | 58.7%1,303 W · 916 L | -11.5wins | -0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x79b6…e042backed No | 40c | 29.38$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.55 | 445 | 53.3%237 W · 208 L | -21.2wins | -0.05per pick | 58cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x399e…6e5dbacked Yes | 73c | 27.3$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 11 | 63.6%7 W · 4 L | -0.3wins | -0.03per pick | 66cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xebc0…fa41backed No | 64c | 27$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.72 | 85 | 63.5%54 W · 31 L | +2.9wins | +0.03per pick | 60cpaid | +3.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked Yes | 69c | 26.55$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.4 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe164…acfebacked No | 73c | 26.45$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.05 | 80 | 76.3%61 W · 19 L | +1.4wins | +0.02per pick | 75cpaid | +2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7ce1…c33abacked No | 62c | 25.34$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.63 | 149 | 61.1%91 W · 58 L | +5.7wins | +0.04per pick | 57cpaid | +5.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x05e1…4c1ebacked No | 78c | 25$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.4 | 496 | 75.4%374 W · 122 L | +2.8wins | +0.01per pick | 75cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x50b0…7dc5backed No | 80c | 25$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.12 | 93 | 60.2%56 W · 37 L | -2.0wins | -0.02per pick | 62cpaid | -10.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1131…a2c3backed Yes | 42c | 24.98$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.49 | 21 | 57.1%12 W · 9 L | +1.9wins | +0.09per pick | 48cpaid | +15.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9e5f…bc9bbacked No | 71c | 22.58$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.55 | 47 | 51.1%24 W · 23 L | -3.6wins | -0.08per pick | 59cpaid | -17.2%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe9da…ed70backed No | 80c | 21.21$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.24 | 763 | 71.4%545 W · 218 L | +11.2wins | +0.01per pick | 70cpaid | +2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdd4e…b99abacked Yes | 73c | 20.2$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.75 | 16 | 68.8%11 W · 5 L | -1.1wins | -0.07per pick | 76cpaid | -9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x59fe…14fdbacked No | 65c | 20$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.1 | 572 | 32.9%188 W · 384 L | -104.6wins | -0.18per pick | 51cpaid | -45.9%equal weight | 31-0.18 edge/pick |
| 0xd271…37e0backed Yes | 53c | 20$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.56 | 310 | 29.7%92 W · 218 L | -1.4wins | 0.00per pick | 30cpaid | -2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5644…ecbbbacked Yes | 68c | 20$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.6 | 237 | 38%90 W · 147 L | -3.1wins | -0.01per pick | 39cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6f67…102cbacked No | 64c | 19.69$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.09 | 2,262 | 39.6%895 W · 1,367 L | -56.8wins | -0.03per pick | 42cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9e99…9584backed Yes | 73c | 19.38$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.15 | 37 | 62.2%23 W · 14 L | +3.7wins | +0.10per pick | 52cpaid | +27.1%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x151b…ef82backed No | 62c | 17.73$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.74 | 89 | 55.1%49 W · 40 L | +2.4wins | +0.03per pick | 52cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x77f0…2b1fbacked No | 60c | 17.5$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7 | 3,028 | 49.8%1,509 W · 1,519 L | +16.8wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +10.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8fbf…cf4bbacked No | 60c | 16.87$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.75 | 100 | 58%58 W · 42 L | +0.8wins | +0.01per pick | 57cpaid | +12.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe6c8…b8c0backed No | 76c | 14.88$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.57 | 328 | 30.5%100 W · 228 L | +1.3wins | 0.00per pick | 30cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x286d…825abacked No | 79c | 12.66$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2.66 | 625 | 55.2%345 W · 280 L | -12.1wins | -0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 11 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 25°C on March 23?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 19°C or below on March 23?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 20°C on March 23?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 21°C on March 23?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 22°C on March 23?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 23°C on March 23?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 24°C on March 23?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 26°C on March 23?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 27°C on March 23?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 28°C on March 23?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 29°C or higher on March 23?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.