Dota2 · resolved market
Game Handicap: FLC (-1.5) vs Team Yandex (+1.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x9883b3937728925e5cbab5f4fd43cefa0fe14516a4552cec1b2f098b3e00243e
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Team Yandexof Team Falcons, Team Yandex
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Dota2every record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- Polymarket published no figure
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $3,933
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $3,933 — TailMyPicks’s own total, because the venue published none.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 30 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Dota2 is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Dota2 | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xbb30…c843backed Team Falcons | 24c | 409$98 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$98.16 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.24per pick | 24cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x76fb…c70dbacked Team Falcons | 24c | 396$95 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$95.04 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.24per pick | 24cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xeb25…3987backed Team Falcons | 24c | 393$94 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$94.32 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.24per pick | 24cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xef27…600fbacked Team Falcons | 3c | 374.89$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.31 | 26 | 53.8%14 W · 12 L | -0.5wins | -0.02per pick | 56cpaid | -9.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xce93…dd28backed Team Falcons | 24c | 346$83 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$83.04 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.24per pick | 24cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x53aa…fc2abacked Team Falcons | 24c | 325$78 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$78 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.24per pick | 24cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3274…ec68backed Team Falcons | 24c | 317$76 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$76.08 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.24per pick | 24cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf377…b77bbacked Team Yandex | 76c | 257$195 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$61.68 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.24per pick | 76cpaid | +31.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x57ed…15c1backed Team Yandex | 76c | 250$190 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$60 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.24per pick | 76cpaid | +31.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd317…9a1bbacked Team Yandex | 76c | 238$181 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$57.12 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.24per pick | 76cpaid | +31.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc9aa…fff3backed Team Yandex | 76c | 223$169 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$53.52 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.24per pick | 76cpaid | +31.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb6fc…0a79backed Team Yandex | 76c | 223$169 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$53.52 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.24per pick | 76cpaid | +31.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfb11…9835backed Team Yandex | 76c | 221$168 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$53.04 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.24per pick | 76cpaid | +31.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x11f2…ec37backed Team Yandex | 76c | 214$163 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51.36 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.24per pick | 76cpaid | +31.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x73dc…d374backed Team Yandex | 76c | 189$144 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45.36 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -34.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8ff8…c4b7backed Team Yandex | 76c | 182$138 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.68 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.24per pick | 76cpaid | +31.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3906…b1d0backed Team Falcons | 24c | 180$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.2 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.24per pick | 24cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6d8d…0667backed Team Yandex | 74c | 176$130 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45.73 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.25per pick | 75cpaid | +34.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x29dd…13d8backed Team Yandex | 76c | 165$125 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.6 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.24per pick | 76cpaid | +31.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfdd7…6b06backed Team Yandex | 76c | 146$111 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.04 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.24per pick | 76cpaid | +31.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6879…39fdbacked Team Yandex | 72c | 144$104 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.32 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.28per pick | 72cpaid | +38.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xec76…ef57backed Team Yandex | 76c | 136$103 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.64 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.26per pick | 76cpaid | -34.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0661…60eebacked Team Falcons | 24c | 113$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.12 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.24per pick | 24cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6368…c9f8backed Team Falcons | 24c | 107$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.68 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.24per pick | 24cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9e3a…aba6backed Team Falcons | 24c | 88$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.12 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.24per pick | 24cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6ac5…4b6ebacked Team Falcons | 27c | 75$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.25 | 605 | 42.6%258 W · 347 L | -14.6wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -7.9%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8232…d12fbacked Team Yandex | 78c | 64.18$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.18 | 280 | 62.9%176 W · 104 L | +6.8wins | +0.02per pick | 60cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc4c0…23d8backed Team Falcons | 40c | 55$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22 | 239 | 57.3%137 W · 102 L | +8.1wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2c1a…42d8backed Team Yandex | 60c | 55$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22 | 98 | 37.8%37 W · 61 L | -0.8wins | -0.01per pick | 39cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x340c…67d7backed Team Falcons | 47c | 29$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.59 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.3wins | +0.14per pick | 36cpaid | +100%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Dota2 and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 4 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Game Handicap: FLC (-1.5) vs Team Yandex (+1.5)this page
- Dota 2: Team Yandex vs Team Falcons (BO3) - PGL Wallachia Group StageTeam Yandex won
- Dota 2: Team Yandex vs Team Falcons - Game 1 WinnerTeam Yandex won
- Dota 2: Team Yandex vs Team Falcons - Game 2 WinnerTeam Yandex won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.