Valorant · resolved market
Map Handicap: NRG (-1.5) vs 100 Thieves (+1.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x9891c5683961c56aa249da9883deb0bf7609279b9125fdf4df8aa87748ffeefb
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- 100 Thievesof NRG, 100 Thieves
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Valorantevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $19,266
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $19,450
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $19,266 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 15 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Valorant is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Valorant | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x877e…8c95backed NRG | 1c | 10,121$119 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$118.77 | 91 | 42.9%39 W · 52 L | -1.8wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcf60…a6f5backed 100 Thieves | 65c | 2,100$1,365 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$734.95 | 521 | 55.5%289 W · 232 L | -11.1wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4b55…076fbacked NRG | 35c | 1,000$350 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$350 | 61 | 37.7%23 W · 38 L | -1.0wins | -0.02per pick | 39cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xce42…5cddbacked NRG | 35c | 557.38$195 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$195.08 | 58 | 56.9%33 W · 25 L | +3.5wins | +0.06per pick | 51cpaid | +11.4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc671…b0c7backed NRG | 35c | 354.7$125 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$124.95 | 98 | 59.2%58 W · 40 L | +8.6wins | +0.09per pick | 50cpaid | +19.1%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xee8e…0a7bbacked 100 Thieves | 66c | 220.14$146 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$74.43 | 781 | 62%484 W · 297 L | +16.8wins | +0.02per pick | 60cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x200f…7a96backed NRG | 34c | 161.98$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54.33 | 163 | 45.4%74 W · 89 L | -7.4wins | -0.05per pick | 50cpaid | -5.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x87ed…b497backed NRG | 34c | 152$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.68 | 34 | 41.2%14 W · 20 L | -2.7wins | -0.08per pick | 49cpaid | -14.9%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5bda…17a8backed NRG | 33c | 100$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33 | 67 | 56.7%38 W · 29 L | +2.4wins | +0.04per pick | 53cpaid | +3.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe727…f6e1backed 100 Thieves | 67c | 98.02$66 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.35 | 8 | 62.5%5 W · 3 L | +0.8wins | +0.10per pick | 53cpaid | +11.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6077…3231backed 100 Thieves | 66c | 91.1$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.97 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.9wins | +0.43per pick | 57cpaid | +77.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x53ab…65aabacked 100 Thieves | 64c | 83.33$53 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30 | 551 | 52.5%289 W · 262 L | +20.7wins | +0.04per pick | 49cpaid | +8.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd31a…28f5backed NRG | 35c | 80.45$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.16 | 100 | 52%52 W · 48 L | +4.6wins | +0.05per pick | 47cpaid | +13%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xee16…16a2backed NRG | 34c | 30$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.2 | 179 | 48%86 W · 93 L | -3.6wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7b74…cbaebacked 100 Thieves | 67c | 25.77$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.45 | 73 | 65.8%48 W · 25 L | +4.0wins | +0.05per pick | 60cpaid | +9.7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Valorant and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Map Handicap: NRG (-1.5) vs 100 Thieves (+1.5)this page
- Games Total: O/U 2.5Over won
- Valorant: NRG vs 100 Thieves (BO3) - VCT Americas Stage 1 Group OmegaNRG won
- Valorant: NRG vs 100 Thieves - Map 1 Winner100 Thieves won
- Valorant: NRG vs 100 Thieves - Map 2 WinnerNRG won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.