MLB · resolved market
Houston Astros vs. Washington Nationals
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x98b00211a83bf0e260df2113c6df4a9141ba91bb9e7da660007117426b68b723
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Washington Nationalsof Houston Astros, Washington Nationals
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- Polymarket published no figure
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $5,022
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $5,022 — TailMyPicks’s own total, because the venue published none.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 32 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in MLB | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xb7cb…bc54backed Washington Nationals | 42c | 1,192$500 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$692.4 | 149 | 53%79 W · 70 L | +10.3wins | +0.07per pick | 46cpaid | +14.4%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x2e7c…164dbacked Houston Astros | 59c | 654.5$386 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$386.16 | 42 | 50%21 W · 21 L | +1.4wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x49ed…a2fbbacked Houston Astros | 59c | 338$199 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$199.42 | 17 | 70.6%12 W · 5 L | +3.3wins | +0.20per pick | 51cpaid | +36.7%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x7140…47e3backed Houston Astros | 57c | 242.11$138 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$138 | 35 | 51.4%18 W · 17 L | +0.7wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +4.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd727…eccebacked Washington Nationals | 45c | 200$90 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$110 | 3,291 | 46.2%1,521 W · 1,770 L | +20.9wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd610…4c9abacked Washington Nationals | 43c | 200$86 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$114 | 2,261 | 45.4%1,026 W · 1,235 L | +57.4wins | +0.03per pick | 43cpaid | +6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc226…497dbacked Washington Nationals | 48c | 187.67$90 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$97.67 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.7wins | +0.19per pick | 56cpaid | +34.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x04ec…8ac9backed Washington Nationals | 40c | 183.33$73 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$110 | 688 | 46.8%322 W · 366 L | +9.1wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x83a3…6292backed Houston Astros | 60c | 166.67$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 665 | 51.1%340 W · 325 L | -17.0wins | -0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1e52…91d6backed Houston Astros | 52c | 116.04$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60.28 | 142 | 35.9%51 W · 91 L | -3.3wins | -0.02per pick | 38cpaid | -14.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9c76…c926backed Houston Astros | 59c | 100$59 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59 | 1,292 | 50.2%648 W · 644 L | +18.2wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9c4d…168cbacked Washington Nationals | 42c | 100$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$58 | 832 | 48%399 W · 433 L | +20.0wins | +0.02per pick | 46cpaid | +6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8a3d…316cbacked Houston Astros | 58c | 77$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.66 | 722 | 47.6%344 W · 378 L | -12.4wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x344b…f7fcbacked Houston Astros | 55c | 63$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.65 | 92 | 41.3%38 W · 54 L | -4.2wins | -0.05per pick | 46cpaid | -26.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xeb76…7ffebacked Washington Nationals | 42c | 60.6$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.15 | 256 | 48%123 W · 133 L | -2.0wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3e04…564dbacked Houston Astros | 58c | 60.6$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.15 | 981 | 49.8%489 W · 492 L | -12.4wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x84f7…ade1backed Houston Astros | 55c | 59$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.45 | 310 | 38.4%119 W · 191 L | +9.7wins | +0.03per pick | 35cpaid | +28.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x14e4…eabbbacked Washington Nationals | 41c | 56.25$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.19 | 509 | 49.5%252 W · 257 L | +2.9wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x92aa…0341backed Washington Nationals | 74c | 55.67$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.33 | 62 | 67.7%42 W · 20 L | +0.8wins | +0.01per pick | 66cpaid | +4.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x742f…d673backed Washington Nationals | 53c | 40$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.72 | 417 | 51.3%214 W · 203 L | +14.7wins | +0.04per pick | 48cpaid | +4.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbbaa…dd4fbacked Houston Astros | 58c | 40$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.2 | 40 | 42.5%17 W · 23 L | -2.3wins | -0.06per pick | 48cpaid | -11.9%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed Houston Astros | 29c | 39$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.31 | 1,927 | 17.2%331 W · 1,596 L | -320.3wins | -0.17per pick | 34cpaid | -64.3%equal weight | 32-0.16 edge/pick |
| 0xaea0…0decbacked Houston Astros | 55c | 38$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.9 | 77 | 53.2%41 W · 36 L | +2.5wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -9.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6814…a9e7backed Houston Astros | 31c | 35.85$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 2,389 | 43.4%1,037 W · 1,352 L | -25.4wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -11.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked Houston Astros | 51c | 34.55$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.79 | 639 | 42.7%273 W · 366 L | +4.0wins | +0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -9.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf026…8df7backed Houston Astros | 55c | 32$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.6 | 77 | 50.6%39 W · 38 L | +2.8wins | +0.04per pick | 47cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5271…0f95backed Washington Nationals | 42c | 30$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.4 | 45 | 44.4%20 W · 25 L | +1.0wins | +0.02per pick | 42cpaid | +13%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6ac5…4b6ebacked Houston Astros | 58c | 29.2$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.93 | 465 | 47.1%219 W · 246 L | +5.9wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +6.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa559…6dbbbacked Washington Nationals | 44c | 28$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.58 | 49 | 51%25 W · 24 L | +1.8wins | +0.04per pick | 47cpaid | +7.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcb5b…f243backed Houston Astros | 53c | 21.28$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.28 | 555 | 41.4%230 W · 325 L | -26.7wins | -0.05per pick | 46cpaid | -17.8%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2b5c…ab22backed Houston Astros | 59c | 20$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.8 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.3wins | +0.11per pick | 56cpaid | +22.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe2e1…c20abacked Houston Astros | 54c | 19$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.33 | 103 | 53.4%55 W · 48 L | +5.6wins | +0.05per pick | 48cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.