MLB · resolved market
Spread: Miami Marlins (-1.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x98b8bfffa9b86668618cf91a03ec619ca8c8734cb51ceaa820a47fb1e71b4723
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Pittsburgh Piratesof Miami Marlins, Pittsburgh Pirates
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $8,764
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $8,790
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $8,764 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 27 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in MLB | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Miami Marlins | 29c | 4,512$1,322 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,322.3 | 8,192 | 46.2%3,787 W · 4,405 L | +38.0wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe401…7b88backed Miami Marlins | 32c | 1,795$578 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$577.63 | 9,819 | 46.4%4,557 W · 5,262 L | +39.8wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5268…135dbacked Pittsburgh Pirates | 70c | 1,408$991 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$417.35 | 11,519 | 52.9%6,092 W · 5,427 L | +213.9wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Pittsburgh Pirates | 69c | 1,252$862 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$389.93 | 12,328 | 46.4%5,726 W · 6,602 L | -66.0wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -9.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xff34…694bbacked Pittsburgh Pirates | 70c | 1,200$840 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$360 | 5,234 | 56.8%2,971 W · 2,263 L | +130.4wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x88aa…2f5ebacked Pittsburgh Pirates | 70c | 1,017$712 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$305.1 | 39 | 48.7%19 W · 20 L | -0.8wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2230…c3b7backed Pittsburgh Pirates | 70c | 508.5$356 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$152.55 | 35 | 48.6%17 W · 18 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf7f0…912cbacked Pittsburgh Pirates | 65c | 420$273 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$147 | 2,311 | 51%1,179 W · 1,132 L | +25.5wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x32ed…f960backed Pittsburgh Pirates | 78c | 300$233 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$66.8 | 6,123 | 55.4%3,390 W · 2,733 L | +346.0wins | +0.06per pick | 50cpaid | +8.6%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x161a…4103backed Pittsburgh Pirates | 73c | 250$183 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$67.5 | 4,087 | 57.6%2,354 W · 1,733 L | +66.3wins | +0.02per pick | 56cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc546…058ebacked Miami Marlins | 29c | 248.8$72 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$72.41 | 5,149 | 54.7%2,815 W · 2,334 L | +231.2wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | +7.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2f4e…1fb8backed Miami Marlins | 31c | 200.45$62 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$62.14 | 3,792 | 45.8%1,738 W · 2,054 L | -5.5wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1cde…96e2backed Pittsburgh Pirates | 70c | 148.3$104 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.49 | 48 | 54.2%26 W · 22 L | +0.9wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xda77…683fbacked Miami Marlins | 18c | 135.63$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.12 | 5,812 | 43.7%2,541 W · 3,271 L | -188.1wins | -0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -19%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1e3b…e232backed Pittsburgh Pirates | 67c | 118.9$80 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.24 | 2,947 | 51.9%1,529 W · 1,418 L | -34.0wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5213…6a35backed Pittsburgh Pirates | 62c | 115$71 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.7 | 192 | 46.9%90 W · 102 L | -4.2wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -6.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfe78…0319backed Pittsburgh Pirates | 80c | 110.89$88 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.66 | 10,979 | 51.6%5,660 W · 5,319 L | +139.8wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1719…ec68backed Miami Marlins | 38c | 110$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.8 | 721 | 54.2%391 W · 330 L | +20.8wins | +0.03per pick | 51cpaid | +144.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x07cd…fbebbacked Pittsburgh Pirates | 74c | 108.08$80 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.1 | 435 | 60%261 W · 174 L | +13.0wins | +0.03per pick | 57cpaid | +5.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6e5f…6ee5backed Pittsburgh Pirates | 70c | 101.7$71 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.51 | 72 | 44.4%32 W · 40 L | -3.6wins | -0.05per pick | 49cpaid | -14.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6b23…04a3backed Miami Marlins | 36c | 80.12$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.84 | 3,460 | 51.2%1,773 W · 1,687 L | +107.5wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5b20…99e9backed Pittsburgh Pirates | 63c | 79.37$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.37 | 443 | 48.5%215 W · 228 L | -7.8wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x167a…d542backed Pittsburgh Pirates | 70c | 71$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.3 | 303 | 40.6%123 W · 180 L | -16.4wins | -0.05per pick | 46cpaid | -11.8%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5821…7c51backed Pittsburgh Pirates | 72c | 70.62$51 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.8 | 2,995 | 50.8%1,521 W · 1,474 L | -36.0wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x066f…b576backed Miami Marlins | 33c | 66.69$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.01 | 3,841 | 42.2%1,622 W · 2,219 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5407…5bbdbacked Miami Marlins | 33c | 41.21$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.6 | 778 | 36%280 W · 498 L | -17.2wins | -0.02per pick | 38cpaid | -5.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x93ac…2761backed Pittsburgh Pirates | 64c | 17.07$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.15 | 2,588 | 61.5%1,591 W · 997 L | +72.3wins | +0.03per pick | 59cpaid | +4.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 13 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Spread: Miami Marlins (-1.5)this page
- Miami Marlins vs. Pittsburgh PiratesPittsburgh Pirates won
- Miami Marlins vs. Pittsburgh Pirates: O/U 10.5Under won
- Miami Marlins vs. Pittsburgh Pirates: O/U 12.5Under won
- Miami Marlins vs. Pittsburgh Pirates: O/U 6.5Under won
- Miami Marlins vs. Pittsburgh Pirates: O/U 7.5Under won
- Miami Marlins vs. Pittsburgh Pirates: O/U 8.5Under won
- Miami Marlins vs. Pittsburgh Pirates: O/U 9.5Under won
- Spread: Miami Marlins (-2.5)Pittsburgh Pirates won
- Spread: Pittsburgh Pirates (-1.5)Miami Marlins won
- Spread: Pittsburgh Pirates (-2.5)Miami Marlins won
- Spread: Pittsburgh Pirates (-3.5)Miami Marlins won
- Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: Miami Marlins vs. Pittsburgh PiratesYes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.