MLB · resolved market
Spread: Pittsburgh Pirates (-1.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x52608ff662af0b47ec3a128ddea1c492d6651328b9a86a44c940771141ad513c
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Miami Marlinsof Pittsburgh Pirates, Miami Marlins
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $46,554
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $46,672
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $46,554 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a prediction-market account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 46 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in MLB | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Miami Marlins | 61c | 21,403$13,080 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8,322.8 | 8,251 | 46.3%3,820 W · 4,431 L | +41.7wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -6.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Pittsburgh Pirates | 37c | 10,924$4,028 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$4,027.67 | 12,328 | 46.4%5,726 W · 6,602 L | -66.0wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -9.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfe78…0319backed Pittsburgh Pirates | 39c | 6,894$2,689 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,688.7 | 11,054 | 51.5%5,694 W · 5,360 L | +137.4wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -0.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5268…135dbacked Pittsburgh Pirates | 39c | 5,044$1,967 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,966.52 | 11,606 | 52.8%6,131 W · 5,475 L | +210.7wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd1ed…d7cbbacked Pittsburgh Pirates | 39c | 2,952$1,151 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,151.08 | 4,428 | 45.1%1,996 W · 2,432 L | +87.7wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -5.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcb45…0cadbacked Miami Marlins | 61c | 2,681$1,643 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,038.02 | 53 | 50.9%27 W · 26 L | -3.3wins | -0.06per pick | 57cpaid | -8.3%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x161a…4103backed Miami Marlins | 63c | 1,779$1,117 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$662.12 | 4,107 | 57.6%2,366 W · 1,741 L | +65.8wins | +0.02per pick | 56cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1d16…212ebacked Miami Marlins | 52c | 1,623$844 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$779.22 | 207 | 47.8%99 W · 108 L | -3.2wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xff34…694bbacked Pittsburgh Pirates | 38c | 1,200$456 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$456 | 5,235 | 56.8%2,972 W · 2,263 L | +130.6wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2f4e…1fb8backed Miami Marlins | 61c | 798$489 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$309.22 | 3,792 | 45.8%1,738 W · 2,054 L | -5.5wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe911…3d4ebacked Miami Marlins | 56c | 390.78$219 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$171.62 | 1,734 | 50.4%874 W · 860 L | +57.6wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xda77…683fbacked Miami Marlins | 61c | 322.68$197 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$125.27 | 5,848 | 43.7%2,556 W · 3,292 L | -189.0wins | -0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -19.1%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x32ed…f960backed Miami Marlins | 68c | 312$212 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$99.66 | 6,128 | 55.4%3,394 W · 2,734 L | +347.5wins | +0.06per pick | 50cpaid | +8.7%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x96c1…2c59backed Pittsburgh Pirates | 37c | 275$102 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$101.75 | 1,498 | 45.3%678 W · 820 L | -8.7wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbca0…9705backed Pittsburgh Pirates | 34c | 252.47$87 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$86.54 | 8,654 | 52.6%4,550 W · 4,104 L | +506.7wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | +5%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x9e4a…5ba6backed Pittsburgh Pirates | 37c | 250$93 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$92.5 | 115 | 42.6%49 W · 66 L | +3.4wins | +0.03per pick | 40cpaid | +6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb421…8856backed Pittsburgh Pirates | 38c | 231.58$88 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$88 | 142 | 58.5%83 W · 59 L | +8.4wins | +0.06per pick | 53cpaid | +6.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x93ac…2761backed Miami Marlins | 69c | 138.75$96 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.92 | 2,593 | 61.5%1,595 W · 998 L | +73.8wins | +0.03per pick | 59cpaid | +4.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x07cd…fbebbacked Miami Marlins | 61c | 131.16$80 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51.2 | 435 | 60%261 W · 174 L | +13.0wins | +0.03per pick | 57cpaid | +5.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x43f3…293cbacked Pittsburgh Pirates | 50c | 121.82$61 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60.91 | 195 | 50.8%99 W · 96 L | +5.0wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | +4.9%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1e3b…e232backed Miami Marlins | 62c | 112$69 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.56 | 2,947 | 51.9%1,529 W · 1,418 L | -34.0wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2b85…bf37backed Pittsburgh Pirates | 32c | 108.5$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.31 | 705 | 46.8%330 W · 375 L | -13.8wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -8.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8d0c…c90abacked Pittsburgh Pirates | 37c | 99.99$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.5 | 2,423 | 49.9%1,208 W · 1,215 L | +20.3wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0d2d…7ff5backed Miami Marlins | 62c | 94.95$59 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.08 | 8,451 | 47.9%4,048 W · 4,403 L | +81.3wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3cad…92f0backed Pittsburgh Pirates | 38c | 94.74$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36 | 477 | 49.9%238 W · 239 L | +18.6wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | +9.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa057…d092backed Pittsburgh Pirates | 23c | 84.66$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.47 | 2,191 | 40%876 W · 1,315 L | +1.2wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | -3.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5821…7c51backed Miami Marlins | 65c | 81.96$53 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.69 | 2,995 | 50.8%1,521 W · 1,474 L | -36.0wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf898…e720backed Pittsburgh Pirates | 43c | 78.01$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.81 | 6,309 | 48.2%3,044 W · 3,265 L | +181.6wins | +0.03per pick | 45cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x39fc…e2f2backed Miami Marlins | 59c | 73$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.8 | 3,225 | 51.2%1,651 W · 1,574 L | +147.4wins | +0.05per pick | 47cpaid | +8.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x22da…2866backed Pittsburgh Pirates | 39c | 71.35$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.94 | 1,848 | 50.3%930 W · 918 L | -4.5wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa9f5…937fbacked Miami Marlins | 58c | 58.63$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.78 | 2,549 | 45.8%1,168 W · 1,381 L | -75.4wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -15.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6b23…04a3backed Miami Marlins | 80c | 56.54$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.31 | 3,465 | 51.2%1,774 W · 1,691 L | +105.6wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa4ad…1014backed Pittsburgh Pirates | 37c | 54.05$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 32 | 40.6%13 W · 19 L | -2.6wins | -0.08per pick | 49cpaid | -14%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5407…5bbdbacked Pittsburgh Pirates | 41c | 40.95$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.8 | 778 | 36%280 W · 498 L | -17.2wins | -0.02per pick | 38cpaid | -5.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb176…567cbacked Miami Marlins | 64c | 36.94$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.3 | 26 | 69.2%18 W · 8 L | +4.5wins | +0.17per pick | 52cpaid | +27.5%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xc546…058ebacked Miami Marlins | 74c | 34.2$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.8 | 5,172 | 54.6%2,824 W · 2,348 L | +227.9wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | +7.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6804…29e2backed Pittsburgh Pirates | 45c | 29.2$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.14 | 1,379 | 50.6%698 W · 681 L | -2.4wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1d50…d283backed Pittsburgh Pirates | 45c | 26.54$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.94 | 178 | 42.7%76 W · 102 L | -8.7wins | -0.05per pick | 48cpaid | -18.2%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4e8c…79bdbacked Miami Marlins | 64c | 23.44$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.44 | 132 | 55.3%73 W · 59 L | +0.8wins | +0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1486…cef3backed Pittsburgh Pirates | 50c | 20$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 68 | 60.3%41 W · 27 L | +8.9wins | +0.13per pick | 47cpaid | +22%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xab56…e635backed Miami Marlins | 76c | 19.83$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.83 | 33 | 39.4%13 W · 20 L | -3.8wins | -0.12per pick | 51cpaid | -15.9%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x4aab…38ccbacked Miami Marlins | 75c | 16.8$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.2 | 663 | 59.6%395 W · 268 L | +3.8wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed Miami Marlins | 61c | 16.78$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.54 | 1,928 | 17.2%331 W · 1,597 L | -320.9wins | -0.17per pick | 34cpaid | -64.3%equal weight | 32-0.16 edge/pick |
| 0xf766…9251backed Miami Marlins | 64c | 15.75$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.67 | 1,494 | 63.4%947 W · 547 L | -11.8wins | -0.01per pick | 64cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2b73…174ebacked Miami Marlins | 65c | 15.54$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.51 | 106 | 49.1%52 W · 54 L | -5.1wins | -0.05per pick | 54cpaid | -14.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9565…ec9abacked Miami Marlins | 71c | 15.48$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.46 | 153 | 49%75 W · 78 L | +4.4wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +12.7%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 13 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Spread: Pittsburgh Pirates (-1.5)this page
- Miami Marlins vs. Pittsburgh PiratesPittsburgh Pirates won
- Miami Marlins vs. Pittsburgh Pirates: O/U 10.5Under won
- Miami Marlins vs. Pittsburgh Pirates: O/U 12.5Under won
- Miami Marlins vs. Pittsburgh Pirates: O/U 6.5Under won
- Miami Marlins vs. Pittsburgh Pirates: O/U 7.5Under won
- Miami Marlins vs. Pittsburgh Pirates: O/U 8.5Under won
- Miami Marlins vs. Pittsburgh Pirates: O/U 9.5Under won
- Spread: Miami Marlins (-1.5)Pittsburgh Pirates won
- Spread: Miami Marlins (-2.5)Pittsburgh Pirates won
- Spread: Pittsburgh Pirates (-2.5)Miami Marlins won
- Spread: Pittsburgh Pirates (-3.5)Miami Marlins won
- Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: Miami Marlins vs. Pittsburgh PiratesYes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.