MLB · resolved market
Miami Marlins vs. Pittsburgh Pirates: O/U 9.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x725f99f0586f33a62209be8eafbde7c57bb554eb6f9090d34680daec3f0e5600
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Underof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $23,382
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $23,332
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $23,382 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 45 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in MLB | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xd81e…e3d0backed Over | 47c | 9,034$4,246 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$4,246 | 322 | 51.6%166 W · 156 L | +8.5wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5268…135dbacked Under | 55c | 4,053$2,225 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,828.31 | 11,357 | 52.9%6,003 W · 5,354 L | +209.9wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Under | 57c | 3,870$2,225 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,644.7 | 8,086 | 46.1%3,728 W · 4,358 L | +29.9wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Over | 40c | 1,618$644 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$643.82 | 12,247 | 46.4%5,687 W · 6,560 L | -68.6wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfe78…0319backed Under | 59c | 1,577$930 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$646.6 | 10,846 | 51.6%5,594 W · 5,252 L | +137.6wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa697…59d5backed Under | 53c | 1,302$694 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$607.74 | 6,899 | 50.4%3,478 W · 3,421 L | -7.1wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe401…7b88backed Over | 27c | 1,158$311 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$311.2 | 9,728 | 46.3%4,506 W · 5,222 L | +32.8wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa804…2a75backed Over | 46c | 1,010$465 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$464.6 | 291 | 47.1%137 W · 154 L | -2.3wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf7f0…912cbacked Under | 54c | 814.94$436 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$378.87 | 2,290 | 51%1,167 W · 1,123 L | +23.9wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcb45…0cadbacked Under | 57c | 511.18$291 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$219.81 | 53 | 50.9%27 W · 26 L | -3.3wins | -0.06per pick | 57cpaid | -8.3%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2f4e…1fb8backed Under | 58c | 430.25$248 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$182.58 | 3,792 | 45.8%1,738 W · 2,054 L | -5.5wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xebe6…9278backed Under | 54c | 400$216 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$184 | 2,104 | 51.9%1,092 W · 1,012 L | +11.9wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +2.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1d60…453dbacked Under | 76c | 392.47$300 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$92.47 | 321 | 66.4%213 W · 108 L | +10.7wins | +0.03per pick | 63cpaid | +6.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc546…058ebacked Over | 28c | 373.69$106 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$105.55 | 5,127 | 54.7%2,805 W · 2,322 L | +232.0wins | +0.05per pick | 50cpaid | +7.8%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x84cf…2f63backed Over | 46c | 294.21$135 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$135.34 | 4,553 | 49.2%2,238 W · 2,315 L | -9.6wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x32ed…f960backed Under | 63c | 261$165 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$96.46 | 6,116 | 55.3%3,385 W · 2,731 L | +344.6wins | +0.06per pick | 50cpaid | +8.6%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xe722…57c5backed Over | 48c | 250$120 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$120 | 945 | 49%463 W · 482 L | -38.2wins | -0.04per pick | 53cpaid | -8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x59b6…307fbacked Over | 51c | 225.49$115 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$115 | 812 | 57.3%465 W · 347 L | -1.4wins | 0.00per pick | 57cpaid | -1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbca0…9705backed Over | 38c | 212$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$79.66 | 8,470 | 52.6%4,459 W · 4,011 L | +510.0wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xbe88…67a8backed Under | 63c | 193.86$122 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$71.73 | 970 | 50.7%492 W · 478 L | +13.8wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8508…c22fbacked Under | 55c | 190.91$105 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$85.91 | 1,000 | 52.4%524 W · 476 L | +5.7wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe3b0…b4d1backed Under | 55c | 160$88 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$72 | 10 | 70%7 W · 3 L | +1.9wins | +0.19per pick | 51cpaid | +38.8%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc5b1…e904backed Over | 45c | 151.89$68 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$68.35 | 693 | 51.9%360 W · 333 L | +26.3wins | +0.04per pick | 48cpaid | +7.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6b23…04a3backed Over | 30c | 139.29$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.79 | 3,457 | 51.3%1,772 W · 1,685 L | +108.1wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x93ac…2761backed Under | 65c | 113.91$74 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.87 | 2,583 | 61.4%1,587 W · 996 L | +70.9wins | +0.03per pick | 59cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x85c3…700cbacked Over | 44c | 103.14$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.38 | 904 | 46.9%424 W · 480 L | +13.1wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfdc6…b20dbacked Over | 45c | 99.99$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45 | 619 | 48.6%301 W · 318 L | +5.5wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3414…07a6backed Under | 55c | 90$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.5 | 13 | 38.5%5 W · 8 L | -1.6wins | -0.12per pick | 51cpaid | -21.8%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5821…7c51backed Under | 67c | 79.31$53 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.27 | 2,995 | 50.8%1,521 W · 1,474 L | -36.0wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc7d0…1f8abacked Over | 33c | 74.31$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.52 | 707 | 37.6%266 W · 441 L | +24.5wins | +0.03per pick | 34cpaid | +15.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3d92…9748backed Over | 46c | 63.89$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.39 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -1.5wins | -0.29per pick | 49cpaid | -56.9%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe997…f92ebacked Under | 53c | 55.55$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.11 | 91 | 53.8%49 W · 42 L | -2.8wins | -0.03per pick | 57cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8d0c…c90abacked Over | 45c | 49.99$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.5 | 2,376 | 49.7%1,182 W · 1,194 L | +17.1wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbf9c…3648backed Under | 63c | 38.16$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.12 | 1,733 | 49%849 W · 884 L | +6.9wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2c97…c20bbacked Under | 57c | 35.18$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.18 | 625 | 54.2%339 W · 286 L | +18.2wins | +0.03per pick | 51cpaid | +5.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x51f4…3e21backed Over | 45c | 35$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.75 | 250 | 34.8%87 W · 163 L | +2.6wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | +5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6123…8b33backed Over | 48c | 31.25$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 268 | 53.7%144 W · 124 L | -6.7wins | -0.02per pick | 56cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5210…bd53backed Under | 55c | 30$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.5 | 1,804 | 53.8%970 W · 834 L | +17.1wins | +0.01per pick | 53cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf3ef…7e77backed Under | 53c | 28.3$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.3 | 12 | 75%9 W · 3 L | +2.5wins | +0.21per pick | 54cpaid | +41.9%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xf47f…15adbacked Over | 48c | 28.13$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.5 | 47 | 59.6%28 W · 19 L | +2.6wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +11.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x718d…2b46backed Under | 55c | 24$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.8 | 465 | 57.2%266 W · 199 L | +11.3wins | +0.02per pick | 55cpaid | +3.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2b85…bf37backed Under | 53c | 23.5$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.04 | 705 | 46.8%330 W · 375 L | -13.8wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -8.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x22da…2866backed Under | 57c | 21.8$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.37 | 1,725 | 50.1%864 W · 861 L | -4.5wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8b67…5347backed Under | 53c | 19.81$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.31 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5587…6d07backed Under | 64c | 15.63$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.63 | 516 | 56.6%292 W · 224 L | +11.6wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | +4.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 13 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Miami Marlins vs. Pittsburgh Pirates: O/U 9.5this page
- Miami Marlins vs. Pittsburgh PiratesPittsburgh Pirates won
- Miami Marlins vs. Pittsburgh Pirates: O/U 10.5Under won
- Miami Marlins vs. Pittsburgh Pirates: O/U 12.5Under won
- Miami Marlins vs. Pittsburgh Pirates: O/U 6.5Under won
- Miami Marlins vs. Pittsburgh Pirates: O/U 7.5Under won
- Miami Marlins vs. Pittsburgh Pirates: O/U 8.5Under won
- Spread: Miami Marlins (-1.5)Pittsburgh Pirates won
- Spread: Miami Marlins (-2.5)Pittsburgh Pirates won
- Spread: Pittsburgh Pirates (-1.5)Miami Marlins won
- Spread: Pittsburgh Pirates (-2.5)Miami Marlins won
- Spread: Pittsburgh Pirates (-3.5)Miami Marlins won
- Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: Miami Marlins vs. Pittsburgh PiratesYes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.