Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 15°C on April 19?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x98ceaee4617d01ac7b3e1639e2d9a83326fa7282c2a583dbd5e5789544d53b57
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $8,941
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $9,246
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $8,941 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 47 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x5581…8495backed No | 75c | 445.17$334 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$111.5 | 40 | 62.5%25 W · 15 L | +2.6wins | +0.07per pick | 56cpaid | -11%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x01a6…59b0backed No | 64c | 380.28$243 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$137.29 | 1,679 | 61.7%1,036 W · 643 L | +6.3wins | 0.00per pick | 61cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xae68…064abacked No | 67c | 356.46$240 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$116.23 | 2,555 | 63.8%1,631 W · 924 L | +38.4wins | +0.02per pick | 62cpaid | +8.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6a8d…50f9backed Yes | 21c | 222.57$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.31 | 9,799 | 44.6%4,367 W · 5,432 L | +256.4wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1361…f12bbacked Yes | 36c | 194.69$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70.46 | 1,924 | 33.8%651 W · 1,273 L | +29.2wins | +0.02per pick | 32cpaid | +1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x866d…f673backed Yes | 17c | 183.39$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.05 | 90 | 54.4%49 W · 41 L | +2.8wins | +0.03per pick | 51cpaid | +5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc423…2ccdbacked Yes | 26c | 178.34$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.3 | 524 | 44.1%231 W · 293 L | -9.0wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -6.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3b82…b217backed Yes | 23c | 167.61$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.55 | 141 | 34.8%49 W · 92 L | +4.0wins | +0.03per pick | 32cpaid | +14.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa3c2…df3dbacked No | 71c | 153.48$110 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.9 | 1,840 | 37%681 W · 1,159 L | -8.2wins | 0.00per pick | 37cpaid | -18.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked Yes | 28c | 142.6$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.51 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4afa…b3ccbacked Yes | 43c | 135.19$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58.1 | 74 | 45.9%34 W · 40 L | +0.4wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | +1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xae8f…c820backed Yes | 32c | 110.18$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.47 | 635 | 38.1%242 W · 393 L | +6.2wins | +0.01per pick | 37cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xea4a…39c8backed Yes | 37c | 109.88$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.18 | 223 | 35.9%80 W · 143 L | +5.3wins | +0.02per pick | 33cpaid | +9.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa2fb…ae7bbacked Yes | 29c | 92.9$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.94 | 90 | 28.9%26 W · 64 L | +6.8wins | +0.08per pick | 21cpaid | +35%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xfa28…c37ebacked Yes | 36c | 91.45$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.2 | 3,939 | 35.3%1,392 W · 2,547 L | +35.4wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8b5d…57d3backed Yes | 33c | 89.28$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.41 | 743 | 38.2%284 W · 459 L | +17.8wins | +0.02per pick | 36cpaid | +6.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1b78…e589backed Yes | 42c | 85.31$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.15 | 379 | 42.5%161 W · 218 L | -3.0wins | -0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -8.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbb9f…557bbacked No | 65c | 80.53$52 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.09 | 722 | 22.3%161 W · 561 L | -37.3wins | -0.05per pick | 27cpaid | -47.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf740…d999backed Yes | 15c | 80$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.8 | 11 | 36.4%4 W · 7 L | -1.6wins | -0.15per pick | 51cpaid | -47.6%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x886d…c586backed Yes | 13c | 77.61$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.32 | 23 | 39.1%9 W · 14 L | -1.7wins | -0.07per pick | 47cpaid | -24%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa98a…a5a8backed No | 72c | 75.6$55 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.87 | 2,015 | 67.7%1,365 W · 650 L | +1.8wins | 0.00per pick | 68cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x576c…bcf1backed Yes | 26c | 75.07$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.51 | 19 | 15.8%3 W · 16 L | -2.4wins | -0.13per pick | 29cpaid | -44.4%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xaad7…cf8fbacked No | 69c | 72.44$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.46 | 861 | 73.2%630 W · 231 L | +13.2wins | +0.02per pick | 72cpaid | +1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x35e6…7a4dbacked No | 72c | 66.23$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.66 | 1,699 | 60.6%1,029 W · 670 L | -24.7wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb69b…368ebacked Yes | 33c | 66.02$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.79 | 275 | 60%165 W · 110 L | -12.3wins | -0.04per pick | 64cpaid | -9%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x054c…0a1abacked No | 77c | 64.94$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.94 | 25 | 48%12 W · 13 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -21.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd228…ea6fbacked Yes | 27c | 46.12$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.49 | 229 | 34.1%78 W · 151 L | -8.4wins | -0.04per pick | 38cpaid | -13.2%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0f18…5b28backed Yes | 37c | 41.35$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.19 | 265 | 66.4%176 W · 89 L | +13.0wins | +0.05per pick | 62cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xef2e…10c3backed Yes | 37c | 40.28$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.82 | 402 | 42.5%171 W · 231 L | -12.4wins | -0.03per pick | 46cpaid | -12.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd611…53c8backed No | 74c | 40.08$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.29 | 72 | 77.8%56 W · 16 L | +3.6wins | +0.05per pick | 73cpaid | +5.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb627…d968backed Yes | 39c | 40.04$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.45 | 78 | 46.2%36 W · 42 L | +1.6wins | +0.02per pick | 44cpaid | +11.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa49b…7054backed No | 59c | 38.83$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.74 | 7,481 | 37.5%2,808 W · 4,673 L | +97.4wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0a84…171fbacked Yes | 30c | 38.72$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.74 | 252 | 39.7%100 W · 152 L | -0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5d86…9671backed Yes | 37c | 38.59$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.28 | 68 | 33.8%23 W · 45 L | +0.8wins | +0.01per pick | 33cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5530…9936backed No | 77c | 38.23$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.94 | 100 | 59%59 W · 41 L | -3.2wins | -0.03per pick | 62cpaid | -9.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe7c6…2b25backed Yes | 29c | 37.6$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.07 | 329 | 58.7%193 W · 136 L | +17.9wins | +0.05per pick | 53cpaid | +11.9%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x16d9…f0b0backed Yes | 37c | 36.92$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.65 | 286 | 48.3%138 W · 148 L | +7.6wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0d96…3617backed No | 73c | 34.36$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.28 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.20per pick | 70cpaid | -31.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbf2e…c770backed Yes | 38c | 33.97$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.91 | 395 | 41.3%163 W · 232 L | +3.6wins | +0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6240…c294backed No | 67c | 33.01$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.97 | 94 | 62.8%59 W · 35 L | -1.9wins | -0.02per pick | 65cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked Yes | 34c | 30$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.2 | 2,119 | 36.1%764 W · 1,355 L | -12.1wins | -0.01per pick | 37cpaid | -26.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd24b…187dbacked No | 64c | 29.99$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.8 | 613 | 65.3%400 W · 213 L | +43.8wins | +0.07per pick | 58cpaid | +15.4%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed No | 70c | 24.33$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.28 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0x90e8…4175backed No | 79c | 19.33$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4 | 6 | 83.3%5 W · 1 L | +1.5wins | +0.25per pick | 58cpaid | +52.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5f1c…dbcebacked No | 73c | 19.31$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.17 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 61cpaid | -14.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2869…527dbacked No | 69c | 17.81$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.49 | 937 | 34.9%327 W · 610 L | -203.5wins | -0.22per pick | 57cpaid | -43.2%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0x57f5…cc92backed No | 73c | 14.6$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.94 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.12per pick | 62cpaid | -31.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 9 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Munich be 15°C on April 19?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Munich be 10°C or below on April 19?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Munich be 13°C on April 19?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Munich be 14°C on April 19?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Munich be 16°C on April 19?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Munich be 17°C on April 19?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Munich be 18°C on April 19?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Munich be 19°C on April 19?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Munich be 20°C or higher on April 19?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.