Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 17°C on April 19?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xee338fd017c9fa045525a81927197716f00a3018db8a822a8ef522da0145aa7d
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $85,409
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $90,119
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $85,409 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 53 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xbfe6…1bfabacked No | 0c | 56,169$87 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$87 | 117 | 41%48 W · 69 L | +4.0wins | +0.03per pick | 38cpaid | -38%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbb9f…557bbacked No | 13c | 673.57$86 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$86.41 | 722 | 22.3%161 W · 561 L | -37.3wins | -0.05per pick | 27cpaid | -47.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8103…23a1backed Yes | 20c | 540.92$109 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$431.62 | 576 | 14.9%86 W · 490 L | +14.1wins | +0.02per pick | 12cpaid | -7.4%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5f21…b376backed Yes | 12c | 539.7$63 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$477.09 | 17,355 | 19.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L | +396.7wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa542…3f6cbacked No | 14c | 364.42$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.02 | 51 | 41.2%21 W · 30 L | -4.1wins | -0.08per pick | 49cpaid | -6.2%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0b87…9414backed No | 75c | 266.67$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 2,001 | 38.4%768 W · 1,233 L | +1.7wins | 0.00per pick | 38cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbc13…5eb6backed No | 79c | 250.98$198 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$198.13 | 517 | 62.3%322 W · 195 L | -15.5wins | -0.03per pick | 65cpaid | -6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x886d…c586backed No | 75c | 226.41$171 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$170.75 | 23 | 39.1%9 W · 14 L | -1.7wins | -0.07per pick | 47cpaid | -24%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa2fb…ae7bbacked Yes | 11c | 211.57$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$187.4 | 90 | 28.9%26 W · 64 L | +6.8wins | +0.08per pick | 21cpaid | +35%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x4248…60abbacked No | 9c | 202.66$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.37 | 2,219 | 58.7%1,303 W · 916 L | -11.5wins | -0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0d10…a713backed Yes | 20c | 193.73$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$154.49 | 143 | 32.2%46 W · 97 L | +14.7wins | +0.10per pick | 22cpaid | +81.2%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xb06a…52f5backed Yes | 79c | 189.92$150 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.99 | 5,832 | 36.7%2,138 W · 3,694 L | +211.1wins | +0.04per pick | 33cpaid | -24.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfd8e…aea4backed No | 78c | 184.75$144 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$144.34 | 2,268 | 79.5%1,803 W · 465 L | +98.4wins | +0.04per pick | 75cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xeb51…c179backed No | 13c | 172.59$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.8 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.13per pick | 13cpaid | -100%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7309…95bdbacked Yes | 20c | 167.3$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$133.37 | 111 | 24.3%27 W · 84 L | +2.2wins | +0.02per pick | 22cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8688…4ac3backed Yes | 23c | 166.46$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$127.81 | 60 | 48.3%29 W · 31 L | +6.2wins | +0.10per pick | 38cpaid | +41.1%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x54f9…9f4dbacked Yes | 10c | 164.85$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$148.37 | 230 | 7.8%18 W · 212 L | -0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 8cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe272…ac63backed Yes | 24c | 157.92$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$120.01 | 205 | 34.1%70 W · 135 L | +10.6wins | +0.05per pick | 29cpaid | +31.5%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xed5b…a76abacked Yes | 65c | 137.34$89 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48.6 | 190 | 47.4%90 W · 100 L | -1.0wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6bee…7e78backed Yes | 11c | 114.25$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$101.69 | 1,076 | 23.5%253 W · 823 L | +69.1wins | +0.06per pick | 17cpaid | +14.2%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xd206…f1b3backed Yes | 30c | 111.31$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$77.83 | 13 | 46.2%6 W · 7 L | -0.4wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1a92…35bcbacked Yes | 26c | 102.81$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$76.4 | 449 | 45.9%206 W · 243 L | +10.2wins | +0.02per pick | 44cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfeb3…8d26backed Yes | 12c | 94.63$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$83.52 | 69 | 50.7%35 W · 34 L | +3.8wins | +0.06per pick | 45cpaid | +7.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xea4a…39c8backed Yes | 34c | 93.61$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$62.1 | 223 | 35.9%80 W · 143 L | +5.3wins | +0.02per pick | 33cpaid | +9.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd228…ea6fbacked Yes | 23c | 91.88$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$71.06 | 229 | 34.1%78 W · 151 L | -8.4wins | -0.04per pick | 38cpaid | -13.2%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x097c…630abacked No | 27c | 85.95$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.17 | 20 | 55%11 W · 9 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -16.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb49f…1821backed No | 24c | 75.51$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.33 | 1,061 | 53.2%564 W · 497 L | +33.5wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +6.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa3c2…df3dbacked Yes | 38c | 65.23$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.66 | 1,840 | 37%681 W · 1,159 L | -8.2wins | 0.00per pick | 37cpaid | -18.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd802…d766backed No | 75c | 64.71$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.77 | 306 | 64.1%196 W · 110 L | -0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 64cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3bef…3304backed No | 65c | 62.73$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.86 | 98 | 30.6%30 W · 68 L | -1.1wins | -0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -25.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfa28…c37ebacked Yes | 30c | 56.9$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.83 | 3,939 | 35.3%1,392 W · 2,547 L | +35.4wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb964…927fbacked Yes | 27c | 50.28$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.7 | 183 | 27.3%50 W · 133 L | +2.6wins | +0.01per pick | 26cpaid | -11.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd6de…9452backed Yes | 24c | 50$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38 | 84 | 28.6%24 W · 60 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 28cpaid | -8.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2986…b3a9backed No | 30c | 49.99$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 2,995 | 31.4%940 W · 2,055 L | +41.6wins | +0.01per pick | 30cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5201…34c3backed Yes | 42c | 49.36$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.63 | 63 | 49.2%31 W · 32 L | -1.6wins | -0.03per pick | 52cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbe99…9ca7backed Yes | 21c | 47.89$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.83 | 669 | 26.2%175 W · 494 L | -1.7wins | 0.00per pick | 26cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6ad7…347abacked No | 79c | 46.6$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.67 | 729 | 52.4%382 W · 347 L | +34.9wins | +0.05per pick | 48cpaid | +9.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1a06…15a9backed Yes | 28c | 46.43$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.19 | 567 | 21.3%121 W · 446 L | -25.2wins | -0.04per pick | 26cpaid | -18.2%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xbf97…3c31backed No | 61c | 40.65$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.79 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | -1.0wins | -0.12per pick | 62cpaid | -18.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xaf17…5c20backed Yes | 27c | 38.84$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.38 | 1,787 | 25.7%460 W · 1,327 L | +132.5wins | +0.07per pick | 18cpaid | +50.8%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x2e99…b482backed Yes | 35c | 37.4$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.31 | 425 | 44%187 W · 238 L | +15.1wins | +0.04per pick | 40cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x59fe…14fdbacked No | 48c | 33.5$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.17 | 572 | 32.9%188 W · 384 L | -104.6wins | -0.18per pick | 51cpaid | -45.9%equal weight | 31-0.18 edge/pick |
| 0x39fa…0b7dbacked No | 78c | 32.04$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.99 | 407 | 77.1%314 W · 93 L | +28.1wins | +0.07per pick | 70cpaid | +9.3%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xe5b2…21f4backed No | 76c | 30.92$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.57 | 297 | 70.4%209 W · 88 L | +15.2wins | +0.05per pick | 65cpaid | +8.3%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed Yes | 51c | 30.28$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.95 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0x8f34…2f50backed No | 34c | 30$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.2 | 4,120 | 60.8%2,506 W · 1,614 L | +32.7wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbe63…2de4backed Yes | 53c | 29$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.68 | 115 | 46.1%53 W · 62 L | -5.4wins | -0.05per pick | 51cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x906f…371abacked No | 75c | 26.47$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.85 | 2,495 | 69.9%1,744 W · 751 L | +80.3wins | +0.03per pick | 67cpaid | +5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5d6f…0e20backed No | 80c | 21.56$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.25 | 914 | 44.7%409 W · 505 L | +16.7wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | +4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbb1f…5154backed No | 72c | 20$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.4 | 44 | 45.5%20 W · 24 L | -0.8wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | +5.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0a1e…9095backed No | 76c | 19.21$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.64 | 173 | 76.3%132 W · 41 L | +11.7wins | +0.07per pick | 70cpaid | +8.1%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xa915…93c7backed No | 78c | 18.73$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.68 | 11 | 81.8%9 W · 2 L | +0.8wins | +0.07per pick | 74cpaid | +10.9%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf5dc…dec3backed No | 80c | 18.42$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.74 | 1,360 | 69.3%943 W · 417 L | +9.4wins | +0.01per pick | 69cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 9 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Munich be 17°C on April 19?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Munich be 10°C or below on April 19?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Munich be 13°C on April 19?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Munich be 14°C on April 19?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Munich be 15°C on April 19?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Munich be 16°C on April 19?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Munich be 18°C on April 19?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Munich be 19°C on April 19?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Munich be 20°C or higher on April 19?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.