Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 16°C on April 19?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x0d74bf7e5ecdc4e5a08bbe7e675b226851c2efb8e8087f3077e67fb2d7dca178
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $22,066
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $23,099
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $22,066 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 57 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x01a6…59b0backed No | 69c | 368.49$255 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$113.91 | 1,679 | 61.7%1,036 W · 643 L | +6.3wins | 0.00per pick | 61cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa054…a95dbacked Yes | 62c | 340.08$210 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$210.5 | 399 | 66.2%264 W · 135 L | +33.6wins | +0.08per pick | 58cpaid | +20.8%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xae68…064abacked No | 70c | 330.09$230 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$99.91 | 2,555 | 63.8%1,631 W · 924 L | +38.4wins | +0.02per pick | 62cpaid | +8.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5f21…b376backed Yes | 24c | 238.23$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57.1 | 17,355 | 19.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L | +396.7wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1361…f12bbacked Yes | 31c | 199.81$63 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$62.69 | 1,924 | 33.8%651 W · 1,273 L | +29.2wins | +0.02per pick | 32cpaid | +1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x866d…f673backed Yes | 50c | 184.87$93 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$92.89 | 90 | 54.4%49 W · 41 L | +2.8wins | +0.03per pick | 51cpaid | +5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8688…4ac3backed Yes | 39c | 161.1$62 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$62.31 | 60 | 48.3%29 W · 31 L | +6.2wins | +0.10per pick | 38cpaid | +41.1%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x4afa…b3ccbacked Yes | 33c | 127.85$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.44 | 74 | 45.9%34 W · 40 L | +0.4wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | +1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfd8e…aea4backed No | 78c | 123$96 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.06 | 2,268 | 79.5%1,803 W · 465 L | +98.4wins | +0.04per pick | 75cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9a19…1e2ebacked No | 50c | 119.99$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$60.4 | 417 | 67.9%283 W · 134 L | +8.5wins | +0.02per pick | 66cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5581…8495backed No | 61c | 111$68 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.29 | 40 | 62.5%25 W · 15 L | +2.6wins | +0.07per pick | 56cpaid | -11%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6bee…7e78backed No | 44c | 106.8$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$59.76 | 1,076 | 23.5%253 W · 823 L | +69.1wins | +0.06per pick | 17cpaid | +14.2%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xf419…5f89backed Yes | 22c | 104.19$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.92 | 949 | 19.7%187 W · 762 L | +11.1wins | +0.01per pick | 19cpaid | +8.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8b5d…57d3backed Yes | 38c | 103.92$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.24 | 743 | 38.2%284 W · 459 L | +17.8wins | +0.02per pick | 36cpaid | +6.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0de9…3d1fbacked No | 46c | 98.28$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$53.07 | 160 | 36.3%58 W · 102 L | +1.0wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe8a1…1d37backed Yes | 61c | 98.23$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60.04 | 320 | 41.9%134 W · 186 L | +10.0wins | +0.03per pick | 39cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfeb3…8d26backed Yes | 38c | 97.89$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.04 | 69 | 50.7%35 W · 34 L | +3.8wins | +0.06per pick | 45cpaid | +7.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd228…ea6fbacked Yes | 24c | 96.22$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.23 | 229 | 34.1%78 W · 151 L | -8.4wins | -0.04per pick | 38cpaid | -13.2%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xaa93…0bc7backed Yes | 27c | 90$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.3 | 3,859 | 23.4%903 W · 2,956 L | +128.4wins | +0.03per pick | 20cpaid | +10%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbb9f…557bbacked No | 61c | 89$55 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.3 | 722 | 22.3%161 W · 561 L | -37.3wins | -0.05per pick | 27cpaid | -47.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xae8f…c820backed Yes | 30c | 86.44$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.93 | 635 | 38.1%242 W · 393 L | +6.2wins | +0.01per pick | 37cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5608…c0dbbacked Yes | 53c | 85.32$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.48 | 191 | 60.7%116 W · 75 L | +11.6wins | +0.06per pick | 55cpaid | +8.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xea4a…39c8backed Yes | 49c | 77.74$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.96 | 223 | 35.9%80 W · 143 L | +5.3wins | +0.02per pick | 33cpaid | +9.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd51e…6465backed Yes | 22c | 77.69$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.03 | 375 | 33.6%126 W · 249 L | -11.9wins | -0.03per pick | 37cpaid | -24.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1b78…e589backed Yes | 35c | 76.39$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.57 | 379 | 42.5%161 W · 218 L | -3.0wins | -0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -8.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa2fb…ae7bbacked Yes | 22c | 66.32$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.87 | 90 | 28.9%26 W · 64 L | +6.8wins | +0.08per pick | 21cpaid | +35%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xaad7…cf8fbacked No | 78c | 63.23$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.91 | 861 | 73.2%630 W · 231 L | +13.2wins | +0.02per pick | 72cpaid | +1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa49b…7054backed Yes | 33c | 61.29$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.99 | 7,481 | 37.5%2,808 W · 4,673 L | +97.4wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd206…f1b3backed Yes | 51c | 61.15$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31 | 13 | 46.2%6 W · 7 L | -0.4wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8f34…2f50backed No | 54c | 56.87$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.34 | 4,120 | 60.8%2,506 W · 1,614 L | +32.7wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0f18…5b28backed Yes | 31c | 56.25$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.37 | 265 | 66.4%176 W · 89 L | +13.0wins | +0.05per pick | 62cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0a84…171fbacked Yes | 39c | 53.06$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.95 | 252 | 39.7%100 W · 152 L | -0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb49f…1821backed No | 46c | 50.81$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.61 | 1,061 | 53.2%564 W · 497 L | +33.5wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +6.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4248…60abbacked No | 54c | 50.49$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.43 | 2,219 | 58.7%1,303 W · 916 L | -11.5wins | -0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0d10…a713backed Yes | 27c | 50.11$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.39 | 143 | 32.2%46 W · 97 L | +14.7wins | +0.10per pick | 22cpaid | +81.2%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed Yes | 27c | 46.93$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.62 | 7,148 | 9.3%666 W · 6,482 L | -1,105.8wins | -0.15per pick | 25cpaid | -75.9%equal weight | 33-0.15 edge/pick |
| 0x8798…45efbacked Yes | 40c | 46.76$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.8 | 77 | 36.4%28 W · 49 L | -0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 37cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd611…53c8backed No | 66c | 41.56$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.24 | 72 | 77.8%56 W · 16 L | +3.6wins | +0.05per pick | 73cpaid | +5.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x356b…1c3fbacked Yes | 26c | 40.79$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.69 | 591 | 25.9%153 W · 438 L | -3.1wins | -0.01per pick | 26cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0354…758ebacked No | 50c | 38.69$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.37 | 16 | 43.8%7 W · 9 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 44cpaid | +1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x671a…2f1ebacked No | 80c | 35.35$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.07 | 175 | 70.3%123 W · 52 L | +9.9wins | +0.06per pick | 65cpaid | +12.2%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2c54…aa45backed No | 57c | 34.52$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.84 | 39 | 66.7%26 W · 13 L | +2.7wins | +0.07per pick | 60cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd6de…9452backed Yes | 40c | 33.96$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.58 | 84 | 28.6%24 W · 60 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 28cpaid | -8.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked Yes | 43c | 31.85$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.85 | 2,119 | 36.1%764 W · 1,355 L | -12.1wins | -0.01per pick | 37cpaid | -26.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x98e9…2ea5backed No | 64c | 31.25$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.25 | 178 | 55.6%99 W · 79 L | +4.8wins | +0.03per pick | 53cpaid | +8.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd731…4199backed No | 74c | 30$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.8 | 92 | 73.9%68 W · 24 L | +5.0wins | +0.05per pick | 69cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7309…95bdbacked Yes | 36c | 28.09$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.23 | 111 | 24.3%27 W · 84 L | +2.2wins | +0.02per pick | 22cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0619…0379backed Yes | 45c | 27.32$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.22 | 548 | 57.5%315 W · 233 L | +13.1wins | +0.02per pick | 55cpaid | +3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8971…809dbacked No | 42c | 27$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.66 | 1,959 | 46%901 W · 1,058 L | -51.3wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3c69…4622backed No | 63c | 25.7$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.51 | 562 | 65.5%368 W · 194 L | +35.2wins | +0.06per pick | 59cpaid | +18.8%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x036d…e888backed Yes | 42c | 24.49$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.29 | 78 | 71.8%56 W · 22 L | +3.1wins | +0.04per pick | 68cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5da1…a003backed Yes | 47c | 24.21$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.38 | 171 | 38.6%66 W · 105 L | +4.0wins | +0.02per pick | 36cpaid | +7.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1b79…021ebacked Yes | 59c | 22.45$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.36 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.59per pick | 59cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x91c1…8367backed No | 55c | 21.97$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.8 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.18per pick | 51cpaid | -39.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0198…133bbacked No | 58c | 19.13$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.04 | 184 | 52.2%96 W · 88 L | +4.7wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x048d…27abbacked Yes | 55c | 18.93$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.41 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.55per pick | 55cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb537…14ccbacked No | 78c | 18.9$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.24 | 414 | 60.1%249 W · 165 L | -21.5wins | -0.05per pick | 65cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 9 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Munich be 16°C on April 19?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Munich be 10°C or below on April 19?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Munich be 13°C on April 19?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Munich be 14°C on April 19?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Munich be 15°C on April 19?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Munich be 17°C on April 19?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Munich be 18°C on April 19?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Munich be 19°C on April 19?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Munich be 20°C or higher on April 19?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.