MLB · resolved market
Washington Nationals vs. Texas Rangers: O/U 7.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x98d25978a8e8afa9e318bb75ce261f161150f42f79bec8183f0800594ed58434
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Underof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $7,766
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $8,086
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $7,766 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 30 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in MLB | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x04e6…3914backed Under | 72c | 2,380$1,703 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$677.45 | 97 | 66%64 W · 33 L | +4.9wins | +0.05per pick | 61cpaid | +9.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4dd2…14c2backed Over | 52c | 1,600$832 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$831.99 | 62 | 46.8%29 W · 33 L | -2.5wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4f29…7a7ebacked Over | 28c | 1,400$397 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$397.01 | 3,041 | 48%1,461 W · 1,580 L | -16.2wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -12%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2a69…d2f7backed Under | 48c | 901.5$433 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$468.78 | 495 | 40.2%199 W · 296 L | +4.3wins | +0.01per pick | 39cpaid | +2.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdc41…dd7ebacked Under | 48c | 727$350 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$376.56 | 1,386 | 50.6%702 W · 684 L | -23.1wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Under | 57c | 531.3$301 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$230.68 | 8,192 | 46.2%3,787 W · 4,405 L | +38.0wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbbdf…b8a0backed Under | 74c | 443.85$328 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$116.21 | 106 | 58.5%62 W · 44 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 59cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5268…135dbacked Over | 29c | 425.68$123 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$122.93 | 11,519 | 52.9%6,092 W · 5,427 L | +213.9wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4f8c…f8bdbacked Over | 38c | 394.74$150 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$150 | 64 | 50%32 W · 32 L | -0.5wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xeef6…cd4cbacked Over | 52c | 252.12$131 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$131.1 | 577 | 53.2%307 W · 270 L | +4.5wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9b11…5375backed Over | 36c | 199.5$72 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$71.82 | 1,848 | 49.6%917 W · 931 L | +28.3wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa710…23c4backed Under | 49c | 198.68$97 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$101.33 | 552 | 53.1%293 W · 259 L | +21.1wins | +0.04per pick | 49cpaid | +9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb01d…46f0backed Under | 49c | 163.27$80 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$83.27 | 1,201 | 49.1%590 W · 611 L | +20.4wins | +0.02per pick | 47cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb361…7348backed Under | 64c | 156.25$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$56.25 | 109 | 53.2%58 W · 51 L | -2.0wins | -0.02per pick | 55cpaid | -8.8%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8efa…894cbacked Over | 51c | 139.3$71 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$71.04 | 477 | 45.7%218 W · 259 L | -6.1wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -2.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Over | 21c | 128.52$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.99 | 12,328 | 46.4%5,726 W · 6,602 L | -66.0wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -9.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x45d5…a7a0backed Over | 51c | 100$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51 | 827 | 41.1%340 W · 487 L | -21.3wins | -0.03per pick | 44cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9703…69c2backed Over | 51c | 80$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.8 | 3,509 | 51%1,789 W · 1,720 L | +53.3wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +3.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdf8c…e040backed Over | 20c | 65$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.72 | 175 | 48%84 W · 91 L | -0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -16%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3dfb…abafbacked Over | 51c | 55$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.05 | 1,414 | 49.5%700 W · 714 L | -4.4wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x84cf…2f63backed Under | 48c | 53.39$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.76 | 4,553 | 49.2%2,238 W · 2,315 L | -9.6wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd9fe…db0dbacked Under | 50c | 51.2$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.4 | 671 | 52.5%352 W · 319 L | +16.7wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5210…bd53backed Under | 48c | 50$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26 | 1,828 | 54.1%989 W · 839 L | +24.9wins | +0.01per pick | 53cpaid | +3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb4bf…60f8backed Under | 48c | 50$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26 | 495 | 51.9%257 W · 238 L | +3.9wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdb83…1e50backed Over | 51c | 48.87$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.92 | 4,515 | 48.8%2,205 W · 2,310 L | -46.9wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x95f5…779fbacked Under | 59c | 48.52$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.04 | 1,176 | 43.8%515 W · 661 L | -33.9wins | -0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -21.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1dd2…9e07backed Under | 48c | 43.44$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.59 | 676 | 53.1%359 W · 317 L | +29.1wins | +0.04per pick | 49cpaid | +9.2%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3e1b…aa71backed Over | 52c | 29$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.08 | 116 | 51.7%60 W · 56 L | +1.8wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3003…30f5backed Under | 48c | 26.04$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.54 | 83 | 62.7%52 W · 31 L | +12.0wins | +0.15per pick | 48cpaid | +30.5%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x60d0…2e36backed Under | 62c | 25$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.46 | 242 | 50%121 W · 121 L | -6.9wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 11 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Washington Nationals vs. Texas Rangers: O/U 7.5this page
- Spread: Texas Rangers (-1.5)Washington Nationals won
- Spread: Texas Rangers (-2.5)Washington Nationals won
- Spread: Washington Nationals (-1.5)Washington Nationals won
- Spread: Washington Nationals (-2.5)Washington Nationals won
- Washington Nationals vs. Texas RangersWashington Nationals won
- Washington Nationals vs. Texas Rangers: 1st 5 Innings O/U 4.5Under won
- Washington Nationals vs. Texas Rangers: O/U 6.5Under won
- Washington Nationals vs. Texas Rangers: O/U 8.5Under won
- Washington Nationals vs. Texas Rangers: O/U 9.5Under won
- Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: Washington Nationals vs. Texas RangersNo won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.