Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Manila be 30°C on August 6?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x98da48bc212c68b69bafcdea0bda0d5e59cbd193a712f321386237a3d8c9e732
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $5,024
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $5,705
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $5,024 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 40 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x7c4d…bb01backed Yes | 24c | 416.65$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 218 | 29.4%64 W · 154 L | +5.4wins | +0.02per pick | 27cpaid | -12.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe40a…e4a2backed No | 76c | 333.04$253 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$79.8 | 1,316 | 56.2%740 W · 576 L | -18.6wins | -0.01per pick | 58cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6a97…395bbacked Yes | 16c | 187.5$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.36 | 336 | 28.9%97 W · 239 L | -2.4wins | -0.01per pick | 30cpaid | -8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x180e…29dfbacked Yes | 24c | 129.36$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.49 | 508 | 60.4%307 W · 201 L | +18.3wins | +0.04per pick | 57cpaid | +9.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x43cb…84dfbacked Yes | 31c | 124.51$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.4 | 6,787 | 39.1%2,654 W · 4,133 L | +256.4wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x75fd…e4f9backed Yes | 9c | 108.82$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.15 | 41 | 22%9 W · 32 L | -0.5wins | -0.01per pick | 23cpaid | -28.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed No | 68c | 102$69 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.64 | 9,490 | 45.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L | -278.5wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x379a…4b1abacked Yes | 27c | 96.07$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.09 | 429 | 48%206 W · 223 L | +8.3wins | +0.02per pick | 46cpaid | +5.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3f0b…d571backed No | 73c | 93.83$69 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.08 | 2,225 | 49.2%1,094 W · 1,131 L | -12.0wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5824…19d5backed Yes | 28c | 92.56$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.13 | 126 | 29.4%37 W · 89 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 29cpaid | +19.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x06da…af33backed Yes | 25c | 86.23$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.83 | 253 | 32%81 W · 172 L | +2.8wins | +0.01per pick | 31cpaid | +4.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc925…767cbacked Yes | 18c | 85.72$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.3 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.4wins | -0.15per pick | 15cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa1d7…a338backed Yes | 48c | 62.67$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 290 | 37.9%110 W · 180 L | +29.1wins | +0.10per pick | 28cpaid | +25.9%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x6a8d…50f9backed No | 72c | 62.07$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.07 | 9,799 | 44.6%4,367 W · 5,432 L | +256.4wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9fb0…3aa0backed Yes | 24c | 62$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.88 | 50 | 60%30 W · 20 L | +2.8wins | +0.06per pick | 54cpaid | +13.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfbd8…4027backed No | 67c | 60$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.63 | 5,631 | 59.9%3,374 W · 2,257 L | -111.1wins | -0.02per pick | 62cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0fb4…c6d7backed No | 52c | 54.67$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.24 | 371 | 50.4%187 W · 184 L | +6.3wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9631…a38cbacked Yes | 32c | 48$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.36 | 497 | 50.3%250 W · 247 L | +20.9wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | +24.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd296…9963backed Yes | 49c | 43.96$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.52 | 42 | 40.5%17 W · 25 L | +0.8wins | +0.02per pick | 39cpaid | +3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfd55…f905backed No | 76c | 40$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.6 | 4,547 | 58.4%2,655 W · 1,892 L | -107.5wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xca75…0a64backed No | 80c | 40$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.2 | 1,010 | 58.1%587 W · 423 L | -34.0wins | -0.03per pick | 61cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9f20…12c3backed No | 58c | 40$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.82 | 4,104 | 56.6%2,322 W · 1,782 L | +50.5wins | +0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7df0…0dfebacked No | 73c | 40$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.8 | 3,642 | 65.9%2,400 W · 1,242 L | +33.6wins | +0.01per pick | 65cpaid | +1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1dec…12f4backed Yes | 40c | 37.91$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 12 | 58.3%7 W · 5 L | +1.7wins | +0.15per pick | 44cpaid | +12%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xbd71…1281backed Yes | 55c | 35.71$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.69 | 539 | 51.9%280 W · 259 L | +54.4wins | +0.10per pick | 42cpaid | +23%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x28ea…7367backed No | 76c | 33.68$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.08 | 1,896 | 61.5%1,166 W · 730 L | -5.9wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4afb…b3d9backed Yes | 50c | 31.2$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.45 | 27 | 37%10 W · 17 L | -0.5wins | -0.02per pick | 39cpaid | -11%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3256…830cbacked Yes | 55c | 30$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.5 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.2wins | -0.62per pick | 62cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5c38…f194backed No | 54c | 30$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.8 | 2,517 | 47.2%1,188 W · 1,329 L | +52.6wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed Yes | 38c | 28.6$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.88 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0xdae8…4736backed Yes | 39c | 28.04$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.94 | 28 | 42.9%12 W · 16 L | +1.0wins | +0.03per pick | 39cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa047…4ffabacked No | 66c | 28$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.46 | 760 | 59.2%450 W · 310 L | -15.6wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x38a1…3154backed No | 75c | 26$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.48 | 2,067 | 74.6%1,542 W · 525 L | +23.8wins | +0.01per pick | 73cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x30fb…7db4backed No | 76c | 25$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6 | 4,117 | 47.6%1,958 W · 2,159 L | -158.0wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc662…0927backed No | 75c | 21.24$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.31 | 1,190 | 57.9%689 W · 501 L | -5.0wins | 0.00per pick | 58cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfaf3…782cbacked No | 63c | 19.99$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.4 | 1,876 | 63%1,181 W · 695 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 63cpaid | 0%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xafde…d98ebacked No | 75c | 16.8$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.2 | 5 | 80%4 W · 1 L | +0.4wins | +0.07per pick | 73cpaid | +7.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd23f…94a1backed No | 74c | 15.3$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.05 | 2,617 | 59.5%1,556 W · 1,061 L | -41.5wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x942e…be27backed No | 72c | 14.14$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.9 | 2,010 | 61.5%1,237 W · 773 L | -1.1wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfd8e…aea4backed No | 80c | 13$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2.6 | 2,268 | 79.5%1,803 W · 465 L | +98.4wins | +0.04per pick | 75cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 4 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Manila be 30°C on August 6?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Manila be 28°C on August 6?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Manila be 29°C on August 6?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Manila be 31°C on August 6?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.