Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Manila be 29°C on August 6?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xc52486b3bbc0902859ba3f2fc1c9410d7887bdd58daece1a15253623d6d2e56a
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $11,660
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $13,960
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $11,660 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 76 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xd251…4d37backed Yes | 43c | 800.39$347 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$453.06 | 1,697 | 42.4%720 W · 977 L | +56.9wins | +0.03per pick | 39cpaid | +11.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7c63…93d4backed Yes | 34c | 652.5$221 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$431.21 | 10,354 | 37.9%3,919 W · 6,435 L | +417.6wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7353…b6c5backed Yes | 70c | 609.69$430 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$180.14 | 183 | 47%86 W · 97 L | -1.7wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -0.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe40a…e4a2backed No | 32c | 511.21$163 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$162.74 | 1,316 | 56.2%740 W · 576 L | -18.6wins | -0.01per pick | 58cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe040…824fbacked No | 27c | 421.03$113 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$112.88 | 4,267 | 53.4%2,279 W · 1,988 L | +156.0wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd498…a6c5backed No | 69c | 398.36$275 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$274.87 | 1,710 | 47.8%818 W · 892 L | -48.2wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x17bd…f0babacked Yes | 58c | 379.07$220 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$159.23 | 112 | 50.9%57 W · 55 L | +6.4wins | +0.06per pick | 45cpaid | -1%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xeaa9…1737backed No | 64c | 230.99$148 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$148.37 | 1,126 | 51.2%577 W · 549 L | -21.2wins | -0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x30fb…7db4backed No | 60c | 226.12$135 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$134.66 | 4,117 | 47.6%1,958 W · 2,159 L | -158.0wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7ae4…fc82backed No | 62c | 213.15$132 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$131.94 | 2,530 | 50.4%1,275 W · 1,255 L | -48.9wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5824…19d5backed Yes | 34c | 195.98$67 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$128.98 | 126 | 29.4%37 W · 89 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 29cpaid | +19.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x52eb…67acbacked Yes | 47c | 183.44$86 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$97.22 | 4,988 | 49.8%2,485 W · 2,503 L | -155.4wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9418…e9f8backed Yes | 46c | 157.9$73 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$84.6 | 1,108 | 30%332 W · 776 L | -38.1wins | -0.03per pick | 33cpaid | -13.6%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5a21…9318backed No | 31c | 133.67$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.43 | 6,592 | 53.1%3,503 W · 3,089 L | +400.2wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x5530…8ca0backed Yes | 80c | 130$104 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.04 | 79 | 69.6%55 W · 24 L | -1.0wins | -0.01per pick | 71cpaid | -5.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf971…0a57backed No | 32c | 118.77$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.15 | 618 | 21.2%131 W · 487 L | -34.2wins | -0.06per pick | 27cpaid | -48.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x43cb…84dfbacked Yes | 42c | 115$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$66.8 | 6,787 | 39.1%2,654 W · 4,133 L | +256.4wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed No | 62c | 105$65 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$65.1 | 9,490 | 45.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L | -278.5wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9aa8…63a4backed Yes | 31c | 101.97$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$70.36 | 115 | 25.2%29 W · 86 L | -9.8wins | -0.09per pick | 34cpaid | -24.9%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x6a97…395bbacked Yes | 40c | 100$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$60.15 | 336 | 28.9%97 W · 239 L | -2.4wins | -0.01per pick | 30cpaid | -8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2df9…4534backed No | 52c | 96.25$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 257 | 47.5%122 W · 135 L | +1.0wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | +4.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xffd0…cd07backed Yes | 47c | 94$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49.82 | 2,311 | 57.7%1,334 W · 977 L | -19.0wins | -0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa1d7…a338backed Yes | 31c | 93.64$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$64.64 | 290 | 37.9%110 W · 180 L | +29.1wins | +0.10per pick | 28cpaid | +25.9%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 53c | 93.26$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.17 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf9cc…59abbacked No | 53c | 89.88$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.98 | 688 | 67.2%462 W · 226 L | +4.1wins | +0.01per pick | 67cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc518…2594backed No | 31c | 89.6$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.38 | 1,928 | 53.5%1,032 W · 896 L | +39.0wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x79d9…9275backed Yes | 42c | 89$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52 | 385 | 60.3%232 W · 153 L | -5.4wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8383…cb59backed No | 71c | 86$61 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$61.01 | 495 | 43.6%216 W · 279 L | +31.2wins | +0.06per pick | 37cpaid | +7.2%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x1bbd…3bedbacked Yes | 37c | 73.7$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.66 | 375 | 41.6%156 W · 219 L | -52.4wins | -0.14per pick | 56cpaid | -28%equal weight | 35-0.13 edge/pick |
| 0x7aed…df39backed No | 43c | 72.17$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.24 | 350 | 63.1%221 W · 129 L | -4.3wins | -0.01per pick | 64cpaid | -3.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2e1f…8fdebacked No | 30c | 70$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21 | 982 | 36.7%360 W · 622 L | +37.9wins | +0.04per pick | 33cpaid | +9.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed No | 56c | 69.44$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.89 | 5,897 | 49.4%2,913 W · 2,984 L | -103.3wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x14ad…69f5backed No | 56c | 68.48$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.35 | 267 | 44.2%118 W · 149 L | -4.8wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -2.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x48d2…35a6backed No | 55c | 62.69$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.48 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.8wins | +0.17per pick | 43cpaid | +47.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa9b7…f43cbacked No | 22c | 62.37$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.72 | 308 | 34.4%106 W · 202 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 34cpaid | -8.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfbd8…4027backed No | 46c | 60$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.67 | 5,631 | 59.9%3,374 W · 2,257 L | -111.1wins | -0.02per pick | 62cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4afb…b3d9backed Yes | 50c | 60$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30 | 27 | 37%10 W · 17 L | -0.5wins | -0.02per pick | 39cpaid | -11%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd296…9963backed Yes | 38c | 60$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.19 | 42 | 40.5%17 W · 25 L | +0.8wins | +0.02per pick | 39cpaid | +3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed No | 56c | 57.92$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.39 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0x1dec…12f4backed Yes | 47c | 56.21$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.62 | 12 | 58.3%7 W · 5 L | +1.7wins | +0.15per pick | 44cpaid | +12%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x304b…a619backed No | 56c | 50$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28 | 275 | 52%143 W · 132 L | +6.2wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +2.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb615…62b9backed Yes | 47c | 50$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.5 | 605 | 50.7%307 W · 298 L | -15.0wins | -0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -9%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd338…9fd3backed No | 51c | 50$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.5 | 293 | 51.5%151 W · 142 L | -14.3wins | -0.05per pick | 56cpaid | -13.9%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x388b…5712backed Yes | 40c | 50$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30 | 12 | 50%6 W · 6 L | +0.4wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | +12.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf5dc…dec3backed No | 55c | 49.42$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.02 | 1,360 | 69.3%943 W · 417 L | +9.4wins | +0.01per pick | 69cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x906f…371abacked No | 53c | 49.06$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.17 | 2,495 | 69.9%1,744 W · 751 L | +80.3wins | +0.03per pick | 67cpaid | +5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x06da…af33backed Yes | 43c | 48.33$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.43 | 253 | 32%81 W · 172 L | +2.8wins | +0.01per pick | 31cpaid | +4.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9631…a38cbacked Yes | 37c | 47.65$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.79 | 497 | 50.3%250 W · 247 L | +20.9wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | +24.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x70c4…1008backed No | 63c | 47.62$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 333 | 50.2%167 W · 166 L | -11.1wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x75cc…6b15backed Yes | 37c | 47.62$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30 | 1,181 | 49.4%583 W · 598 L | -9.1wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5968…3fc4backed No | 56c | 46.58$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.9 | 421 | 60.6%255 W · 166 L | -25.0wins | -0.06per pick | 67cpaid | -11.3%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x9fb0…3aa0backed No | 28c | 46.54$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.8 | 50 | 60%30 W · 20 L | +2.8wins | +0.06per pick | 54cpaid | +13.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x234c…90dbbacked Yes | 45c | 44.44$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.44 | 581 | 38.9%226 W · 355 L | +10.9wins | +0.02per pick | 37cpaid | +6.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf333…ba41backed Yes | 48c | 40$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.8 | 869 | 49.8%433 W · 436 L | -24.0wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xca75…0a64backed No | 56c | 40$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.4 | 1,010 | 58.1%587 W · 423 L | -34.0wins | -0.03per pick | 61cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcb32…79aabacked No | 48c | 40$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.33 | 1,187 | 62.2%738 W · 449 L | +27.8wins | +0.02per pick | 60cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x04b3…1b7ebacked No | 51c | 39.22$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 1,385 | 65.8%911 W · 474 L | +62.8wins | +0.05per pick | 61cpaid | +11.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0fb4…c6d7backed No | 68c | 38.97$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.67 | 371 | 50.4%187 W · 184 L | +6.3wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8b1b…2caebacked Yes | 37c | 35.73$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.62 | 229 | 37.1%85 W · 144 L | +5.1wins | +0.02per pick | 35cpaid | +6.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x186d…8bfebacked Yes | 66c | 31.36$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.66 | 191 | 66.5%127 W · 64 L | +6.9wins | +0.04per pick | 63cpaid | +4.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa047…4ffabacked No | 59c | 30$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.7 | 760 | 59.2%450 W · 310 L | -15.6wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5c38…f194backed No | 54c | 30$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.2 | 2,517 | 47.2%1,188 W · 1,329 L | +52.6wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2753…e28abacked Yes | 68c | 29.41$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.41 | 420 | 61.2%257 W · 163 L | +19.7wins | +0.05per pick | 57cpaid | +4.7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7274…c205backed Yes | 56c | 28.84$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.6 | 213 | 61%130 W · 83 L | -1.4wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbd71…1281backed Yes | 42c | 26.04$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15 | 539 | 51.9%280 W · 259 L | +54.4wins | +0.10per pick | 42cpaid | +23%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x7bbe…b95ebacked Yes | 50c | 24.49$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.15 | 419 | 66.6%279 W · 140 L | +36.9wins | +0.09per pick | 58cpaid | +13.5%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xeb58…407abacked Yes | 44c | 23.7$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.27 | 2,424 | 26.2%636 W · 1,788 L | +18.0wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x013f…ca85backed Yes | 45c | 23.42$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.88 | 10 | 40%4 W · 6 L | -0.9wins | -0.09per pick | 49cpaid | -23.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3c3a…8792backed No | 62c | 23.13$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.34 | 180 | 45.6%82 W · 98 L | -3.9wins | -0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -8.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x29ef…dddabacked No | 57c | 22.32$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.7 | 182 | 47.3%86 W · 96 L | -10.7wins | -0.06per pick | 53cpaid | -11.9%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb701…8c1bbacked No | 54c | 22.07$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 120 | 70.8%85 W · 35 L | +3.9wins | +0.03per pick | 68cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x24e8…4546backed No | 80c | 20$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16 | 3,065 | 53.7%1,647 W · 1,418 L | -97.2wins | -0.03per pick | 57cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfaf3…782cbacked No | 63c | 20$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.6 | 1,876 | 63%1,181 W · 695 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 63cpaid | 0%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x813f…26ecbacked No | 52c | 20$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.4 | 809 | 62.1%502 W · 307 L | -22.9wins | -0.03per pick | 65cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xce38…899fbacked Yes | 64c | 17.84$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.42 | 5 | 80%4 W · 1 L | +1.1wins | +0.22per pick | 58cpaid | +26.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xcef6…2adebacked Yes | 63c | 16$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6 | 259 | 47.1%122 W · 137 L | +3.8wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 4 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Manila be 29°C on August 6?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Manila be 28°C on August 6?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Manila be 30°C on August 6?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Manila be 31°C on August 6?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.