Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 33°C on May 23?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x98f8ba910594eba895ef9f256446bbcea9dad4c6014bc6fc24443eb54eaf18d4
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $9,049
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $7,175
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $9,049 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 51 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x4f6a…f60cbacked Yes | 19c | 569.29$106 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$106.36 | 294 | 27.9%82 W · 212 L | +18.6wins | +0.06per pick | 22cpaid | +42.7%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xe907…cff6backed Yes | 12c | 421.29$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.98 | 3,366 | 31.1%1,047 W · 2,319 L | -34.1wins | -0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -29.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaf17…5c20backed Yes | 21c | 411.99$85 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$85.19 | 1,787 | 25.7%460 W · 1,327 L | +132.5wins | +0.07per pick | 18cpaid | +50.8%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x2c57…372dbacked Yes | 19c | 300$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58 | 1,531 | 24.2%371 W · 1,160 L | +15.4wins | +0.01per pick | 23cpaid | -10%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6fb1…9319backed Yes | 16c | 299.98$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.1 | 496 | 22.2%110 W · 386 L | +26.1wins | +0.05per pick | 17cpaid | +22.1%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0ab0…9578backed Yes | 21c | 200$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42 | 40 | 32.5%13 W · 27 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 33cpaid | +36.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1791…f8ecbacked Yes | 20c | 199.98$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 16 | 18.8%3 W · 13 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 19cpaid | +41.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x044f…d1f1backed No | 79c | 190.67$150 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.98 | 8,162 | 49.4%4,035 W · 4,127 L | +269.7wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x83ce…835cbacked Yes | 21c | 177.84$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.98 | 90 | 17.8%16 W · 74 L | -6.6wins | -0.07per pick | 25cpaid | -39.2%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x8529…1449backed Yes | 26c | 176$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.44 | 13 | 30.8%4 W · 9 L | -1.3wins | -0.10per pick | 40cpaid | -51.5%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8fbd…a959backed Yes | 7c | 170.27$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.58 | 8,952 | 26.7%2,392 W · 6,560 L | +120.3wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x41aa…9e8cbacked Yes | 9c | 167$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.27 | 607 | 3.3%20 W · 587 L | -19.0wins | -0.03per pick | 6cpaid | -54.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xaf38…c19ebacked Yes | 23c | 136.14$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.7 | 612 | 49.5%303 W · 309 L | +30.2wins | +0.05per pick | 45cpaid | +7.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed No | 76c | 132.63$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.3 | 5,897 | 49.4%2,913 W · 2,984 L | -103.3wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfd8e…aea4backed No | 72c | 115.23$83 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.27 | 2,268 | 79.5%1,803 W · 465 L | +98.4wins | +0.04per pick | 75cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x87f0…85f7backed Yes | 20c | 100$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 67 | 17.9%12 W · 55 L | -2.2wins | -0.03per pick | 21cpaid | -19.5%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1ba7…3d88backed No | 79c | 100$79 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21 | 478 | 66.5%318 W · 160 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 67cpaid | -2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa493…1b55backed Yes | 16c | 99.97$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16 | 269 | 33.1%89 W · 180 L | +21.8wins | +0.08per pick | 25cpaid | +71.7%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x6897…a4a4backed Yes | 22c | 98.23$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.84 | 192 | 17.2%33 W · 159 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 17cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc60c…cdeebacked Yes | 21c | 94.59$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.76 | 58 | 12.1%7 W · 51 L | -4.6wins | -0.08per pick | 20cpaid | +103.5%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x17dd…056abacked Yes | 26c | 91.62$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.81 | 69 | 13%9 W · 60 L | -3.2wins | -0.05per pick | 18cpaid | -63.4%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6128…b3e7backed Yes | 19c | 83.55$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.93 | 14 | 21.4%3 W · 11 L | +1.1wins | +0.08per pick | 13cpaid | +44.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4e25…98d0backed Yes | 20c | 78.23$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.94 | 36 | 8.3%3 W · 33 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 8cpaid | -40.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe5b1…30b2backed No | 76c | 77$59 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.48 | 503 | 73.2%368 W · 135 L | +25.3wins | +0.05per pick | 68cpaid | +7.7%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe2be…ff33backed No | 80c | 72.6$58 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.74 | 1,203 | 48.9%588 W · 615 L | -24.7wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -9.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc7d0…1f8abacked Yes | 20c | 71.65$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.33 | 4,347 | 29.7%1,293 W · 3,054 L | +19.8wins | 0.00per pick | 29cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7c52…1411backed Yes | 22c | 55.36$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.17 | 45 | 40%18 W · 27 L | +3.0wins | +0.07per pick | 33cpaid | -6.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3cae…e877backed Yes | 25c | 53.58$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.38 | 37 | 24.3%9 W · 28 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9b72…a958backed Yes | 20c | 51.23$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.08 | 686 | 45.8%314 W · 372 L | -10.7wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -10.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4174…18fabacked No | 76c | 49.99$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.8 | 1,079 | 61.2%660 W · 419 L | -5.7wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x74f7…0cd6backed No | 79c | 49.69$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.32 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.3wins | +0.10per pick | 57cpaid | +11.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcce6…77d1backed Yes | 22c | 49.63$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.84 | 91 | 39.6%36 W · 55 L | +2.4wins | +0.03per pick | 37cpaid | -16.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x38e2…2909backed No | 78c | 44.88$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.89 | 3,479 | 53%1,845 W · 1,634 L | +72.1wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa3ed…a132backed Yes | 24c | 41.58$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.04 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.24per pick | 24cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5ea7…7450backed No | 74c | 40$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.4 | 417 | 60.4%252 W · 165 L | -7.7wins | -0.02per pick | 62cpaid | -8.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x958a…9f65backed No | 75c | 40$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.2 | 558 | 55.2%308 W · 250 L | -10.0wins | -0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xedec…d967backed Yes | 27c | 39$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.53 | 179 | 26.3%47 W · 132 L | -7.1wins | -0.04per pick | 30cpaid | -11.8%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfafe…066fbacked No | 78c | 36.78$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.06 | 7 | 71.4%5 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.02per pick | 74cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0484…4830backed No | 78c | 34.61$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.77 | 5,186 | 47.2%2,447 W · 2,739 L | +66.7wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd43e…3604backed No | 80c | 31$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.2 | 515 | 53.6%276 W · 239 L | -9.0wins | -0.02per pick | 55cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4526…2d4bbacked No | 80c | 30$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6 | 91 | 59.3%54 W · 37 L | -2.9wins | -0.03per pick | 63cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x170b…4737backed No | 77c | 30$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7 | 809 | 57.6%466 W · 343 L | -19.4wins | -0.02per pick | 60cpaid | -12.7%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfddd…cab9backed No | 78c | 29.17$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.35 | 32 | 68.8%22 W · 10 L | -2.0wins | -0.06per pick | 75cpaid | -8.8%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x69f0…fb27backed No | 79c | 24$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.04 | 2,118 | 58.2%1,233 W · 885 L | +78.8wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe7c3…20e0backed No | 76c | 23$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.52 | 637 | 57.6%367 W · 270 L | +1.0wins | 0.00per pick | 57cpaid | -1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2298…9f33backed No | 80c | 20$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4 | 351 | 68.4%240 W · 111 L | -4.9wins | -0.01per pick | 70cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcfff…673dbacked No | 73c | 15.3$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.13 | 3,057 | 61.6%1,883 W · 1,174 L | -35.2wins | -0.01per pick | 63cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcdd4…05ebbacked No | 79c | 15.24$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.26 | 163 | 54%88 W · 75 L | -0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 54cpaid | -3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x75b0…e7b7backed No | 80c | 15$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3 | 1,585 | 78.5%1,244 W · 341 L | +39.7wins | +0.03per pick | 76cpaid | +3.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x570c…91c5backed No | 79c | 14.76$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.15 | 711 | 59.2%421 W · 290 L | -9.5wins | -0.01per pick | 61cpaid | -9.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8cd6…092abacked No | 80c | 12.5$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2.5 | 247 | 36%89 W · 158 L | -3.2wins | -0.01per pick | 37cpaid | +10.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 33°C on May 23?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 29°C on May 23?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 30°C on May 23?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 31°C on May 23?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 32°C on May 23?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 34°C or higher on May 23?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.