Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 40-41°F on January 12?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x98fff9857d45c3995821b05d254a8b3b7fba0c144b3c12e6d3ace4d791b57484
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $24,185
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $24,402
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $24,185 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 38 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xd8f8…0f11backed No | 1c | 6,370$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.8 | 966 | 20.7%200 W · 766 L | +59.8wins | +0.06per pick | 15cpaid | +96.3%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x0d42…f124backed No | 6c | 1,032$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58.29 | 523 | 22.6%118 W · 405 L | -18.0wins | -0.03per pick | 26cpaid | -44.1%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa629…fe39backed No | 79c | 666.22$526 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$525.57 | 54 | 46.3%25 W · 29 L | +2.5wins | +0.05per pick | 42cpaid | +60.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe204…cfb5backed Yes | 23c | 427.5$97 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$330.12 | 48 | 54.2%26 W · 22 L | -0.9wins | -0.02per pick | 56cpaid | -11.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbdcd…3e9cbacked Yes | 44c | 349.99$153 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$197.04 | 833 | 32.1%267 W · 566 L | +24.4wins | +0.03per pick | 29cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x906f…371abacked No | 68c | 281.4$192 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$191.73 | 2,495 | 69.9%1,744 W · 751 L | +80.3wins | +0.03per pick | 67cpaid | +5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1f66…4c8dbacked Yes | 20c | 260$52 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$208.45 | 2,267 | 18%407 W · 1,860 L | -9.5wins | 0.00per pick | 18cpaid | -14.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x399d…bf83backed Yes | 24c | 210.96$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$160.96 | 71 | 29.6%21 W · 50 L | -0.6wins | -0.01per pick | 30cpaid | +82.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9469…6d18backed No | 30c | 200$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 959 | 42.4%407 W · 552 L | +84.9wins | +0.09per pick | 34cpaid | +27.4%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x08c1…7fbebacked Yes | 25c | 162.47$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$122.21 | 9 | 22.2%2 W · 7 L | -2.5wins | -0.28per pick | 50cpaid | -37.1%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xaa7a…4d23backed Yes | 69c | 150$104 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45.8 | 987 | 38.1%376 W · 611 L | +80.8wins | +0.08per pick | 30cpaid | +32.1%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x0130…fb49backed Yes | 24c | 132.3$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$99.92 | 665 | 43.6%290 W · 375 L | +25.2wins | +0.04per pick | 40cpaid | -10.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed No | 49c | 120.41$59 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58.78 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0x0bec…7e15backed No | 63c | 115$73 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$72.88 | 25 | 56%14 W · 11 L | +0.9wins | +0.03per pick | 53cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xaa93…0bc7backed Yes | 12c | 110.83$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$97.81 | 3,859 | 23.4%903 W · 2,956 L | +128.4wins | +0.03per pick | 20cpaid | +10%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2818…5369backed Yes | 48c | 104.09$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$54.09 | 17 | 64.7%11 W · 6 L | +1.2wins | +0.07per pick | 58cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x365f…e1d0backed Yes | 75c | 100$75 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25 | 82 | 53.7%44 W · 38 L | -10.2wins | -0.12per pick | 66cpaid | -19.5%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xeb7e…1757backed Yes | 19c | 99.99$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$80.99 | 113 | 32.7%37 W · 76 L | +5.0wins | +0.04per pick | 28cpaid | +5.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe62e…917cbacked Yes | 37c | 95$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$59.85 | 155 | 58.7%91 W · 64 L | -3.0wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -6.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x10c5…06c3backed Yes | 80c | 91.26$73 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.46 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.21per pick | 79cpaid | +26.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7dfa…73acbacked Yes | 28c | 88.2$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$63.65 | 1,022 | 30.6%313 W · 709 L | +17.2wins | +0.02per pick | 29cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf1f8…f4cbbacked Yes | 42c | 76.61$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.14 | 812 | 34.1%277 W · 535 L | +56.9wins | +0.07per pick | 27cpaid | +16.1%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x988e…bd82backed Yes | 16c | 70$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$58.6 | 123 | 39%48 W · 75 L | +8.5wins | +0.07per pick | 32cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xf216…4844backed Yes | 19c | 60$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48.5 | 272 | 46.3%126 W · 146 L | +13.9wins | +0.05per pick | 41cpaid | +13.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2871…844fbacked Yes | 47c | 58.92$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.39 | 10 | 30%3 W · 7 L | -1.0wins | -0.10per pick | 40cpaid | -17.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0b2f…e181backed Yes | 43c | 50$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.5 | 49 | 51%25 W · 24 L | +3.5wins | +0.07per pick | 44cpaid | +13.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x89b4…55bcbacked Yes | 26c | 50$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37 | 930 | 34%316 W · 614 L | +53.0wins | +0.06per pick | 28cpaid | +13.2%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xb449…1a89backed Yes | 34c | 50$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33 | 15 | 53.3%8 W · 7 L | +1.4wins | +0.09per pick | 44cpaid | +44%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa4bd…e8a2backed Yes | 40c | 46.71$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.17 | 540 | 37.4%202 W · 338 L | +6.6wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -13.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x77b5…9170backed No | 70c | 44.42$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.23 | 3,175 | 62.7%1,992 W · 1,183 L | +12.6wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc904…ca06backed Yes | 48c | 41.31$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.31 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -30.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4959…a6f5backed No | 57c | 36$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.52 | 847 | 59.4%503 W · 344 L | +41.6wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +5.2%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3f67…0d67backed Yes | 37c | 35.48$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.46 | 16 | 25%4 W · 12 L | -3.6wins | -0.22per pick | 47cpaid | -54.6%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x68cd…e8d7backed No | 56c | 35$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.6 | 49 | 36.7%18 W · 31 L | -6.2wins | -0.13per pick | 49cpaid | -35.5%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xed5b…a76abacked Yes | 40c | 33.76$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.35 | 190 | 47.4%90 W · 100 L | -1.0wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9b74…6516backed No | 67c | 32.04$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.45 | 16 | 50%8 W · 8 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -22.3%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x68a3…5dd5backed Yes | 37c | 29.91$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.7 | 467 | 43.7%204 W · 263 L | +7.1wins | +0.02per pick | 42cpaid | +2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x81f4…6a3ebacked No | 80c | 17.92$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.31 | 17 | 29.4%5 W · 12 L | -0.7wins | -0.04per pick | 34cpaid | -22.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 40-41°F on January 12?this page
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be 37°F or below on January 12?No won
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be 48°F or higher on January 12?No won
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 38-39°F on January 12?No won
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 42-43°F on January 12?No won
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 44-45°F on January 12?No won
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 46-47°F on January 12?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.