Europa Conference League · resolved market
Will NK Celje win on 2026-03-19?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x99085d295ef64ff728723f0cb6c56ce74dd57b8f50061b2a7c7b01dd7b5873a3
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Europa Conference Leagueevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- Polymarket published no figure
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $103,588
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $103,588 — TailMyPicks’s own total, because the venue published none.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 56 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Europa Conference League is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Europa Conference League | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x4133…5e70backed Yes | 72c | 26,349$19,045 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7,304.29 | 848 | 50.8%431 W · 417 L | +10.1wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd6a3…9489backed No | 26c | 8,769$2,293 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,292.62 | 522 | 43.9%229 W · 293 L | -2.7wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked No | 28c | 7,984$2,198 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,198.44 | 2,999 | 42.4%1,273 W · 1,726 L | +7.7wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | -11.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed No | 35c | 7,653$2,676 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,676.2 | 3,726 | 47%1,750 W · 1,976 L | +20.0wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -8.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfb51…742dbacked Yes | 77c | 6,038$4,672 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,366.36 | 19 | 68.4%13 W · 6 L | +1.9wins | +0.10per pick | 58cpaid | +24.1%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x90ba…63f3backed Yes | 9c | 4,099$369 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,730.11 | 260 | 22.3%58 W · 202 L | +3.8wins | +0.01per pick | 21cpaid | +9.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5fea…78b1backed No | 2c | 3,007$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.76 | 36 | 27.8%10 W · 26 L | -2.8wins | -0.08per pick | 36cpaid | -50.2%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x01c7…e995backed No | 32c | 2,666$846 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$845.88 | 771 | 41.8%322 W · 449 L | -8.8wins | -0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -24.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7a49…d9f5backed No | 32c | 2,436$780 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$780.45 | 276 | 44.9%124 W · 152 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 45cpaid | -16.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2302…d6d2backed No | 34c | 1,307$444 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$444.45 | 145 | 52.4%76 W · 69 L | -2.6wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbce5…02f1backed No | 62c | 1,000$620 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$620 | 12 | 58.3%7 W · 5 L | +0.7wins | +0.06per pick | 52cpaid | +18.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2e62…b22ebacked No | 33c | 767.07$254 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$254.11 | 31 | 32.3%10 W · 21 L | -1.3wins | -0.04per pick | 37cpaid | -15.6%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4676…1639backed Yes | 66c | 607.38$401 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$205.94 | 14 | 42.9%6 W · 8 L | +0.7wins | +0.05per pick | 38cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfb51…082dbacked No | 34c | 605.57$206 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$205.89 | 114 | 43.9%50 W · 64 L | -8.4wins | -0.07per pick | 51cpaid | -18.9%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xce2b…08fabacked No | 35c | 542.86$190 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$190 | 107 | 57%61 W · 46 L | +2.2wins | +0.02per pick | 55cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9c4c…bc84backed No | 65c | 461.54$300 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$300 | 11 | 36.4%4 W · 7 L | -3.4wins | -0.30per pick | 67cpaid | -47.1%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x2652…2a1dbacked Yes | 76c | 439.22$334 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$105.21 | 351 | 58.1%204 W · 147 L | +3.2wins | +0.01per pick | 57cpaid | -1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x49ef…ba02backed Yes | 11c | 416.87$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$371.01 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.9wins | +0.89per pick | 11cpaid | +809.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x64ae…ead9backed No | 33c | 409.09$135 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$135 | 115 | 36.5%42 W · 73 L | -7.0wins | -0.06per pick | 43cpaid | -12.1%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x507e…beaebacked No | 32c | 396$128 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$127.68 | 449 | 52.6%236 W · 213 L | +3.6wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -5.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa6be…b977backed Yes | 38c | 394.74$150 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$244.74 | 61 | 42.6%26 W · 35 L | -1.8wins | -0.03per pick | 46cpaid | -11.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8dec…60c2backed No | 32c | 350.22$110 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$110.35 | 39 | 56.4%22 W · 17 L | -1.5wins | -0.04per pick | 60cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcd3d…e7ebbacked Yes | 30c | 333.33$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$233.33 | 69 | 29%20 W · 49 L | -1.6wins | -0.02per pick | 31cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x69ac…03e9backed No | 34c | 315.27$107 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$107.19 | 19 | 57.9%11 W · 8 L | +2.3wins | +0.12per pick | 46cpaid | +20.5%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x10ff…ff77backed Yes | 8c | 294$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$270.48 | 318 | 42.1%134 W · 184 L | -2.8wins | -0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf829…5ee1backed Yes | 9c | 277.78$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$252.78 | 19 | 26.3%5 W · 14 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 26cpaid | +49%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed No | 18c | 277$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.22 | 335 | 22.4%75 W · 260 L | -43.5wins | -0.13per pick | 35cpaid | -52.8%equal weight | 37-0.12 edge/pick |
| 0xe051…9ec5backed Yes | 9c | 260.69$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$237.23 | 10 | 50%5 W · 5 L | +1.6wins | +0.16per pick | 34cpaid | +110.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1813…4dfebacked No | 10c | 199.33$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.93 | 172 | 49.4%85 W · 87 L | -7.6wins | -0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -15.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe911…3d4ebacked No | 20c | 199$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.8 | 785 | 44.8%352 W · 433 L | +13.6wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xeba1…eac4backed Yes | 79c | 189.87$150 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.87 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.17per pick | 67cpaid | -36.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xefd7…1b95backed Yes | 78c | 128.21$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.21 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.22per pick | 78cpaid | +28.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffd…7821backed Yes | 56c | 125$70 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$55.47 | 85 | 50.6%43 W · 42 L | -2.7wins | -0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4c43…1e4abacked Yes | 80c | 125$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.4wins | +0.15per pick | 52cpaid | +34.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x20ad…a7c6backed No | 26c | 101.53$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.87 | 218 | 35.8%78 W · 140 L | -4.6wins | -0.02per pick | 38cpaid | -18.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8fad…3ee4backed Yes | 36c | 100$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$64 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.3wins | +0.08per pick | 42cpaid | +17.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf39a…fe47backed No | 46c | 97.28$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.66 | 117 | 49.6%58 W · 59 L | -3.0wins | -0.03per pick | 52cpaid | -16.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3abf…b143backed No | 28c | 84.29$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.27 | 179 | 56.4%101 W · 78 L | +13.4wins | +0.07per pick | 49cpaid | +16.1%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xe790…7df7backed No | 26c | 77.14$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.8 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | -0.9wins | -0.11per pick | 61cpaid | -21.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7f38…16e2backed Yes | 68c | 73.53$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.53 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.7wins | +0.23per pick | 43cpaid | +39.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xed61…9aa3backed Yes | 41c | 70$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.98 | 153 | 76.5%117 W · 36 L | +37.4wins | +0.24per pick | 52cpaid | +61.3%equal weight | 73+0.21 edge/pick |
| 0xd461…0801backed Yes | 71c | 66.54$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.3 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.29per pick | 71cpaid | +40.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7f02…12f5backed Yes | 34c | 58.82$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.82 | 55 | 49.1%27 W · 28 L | +1.8wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +7.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd809…6542backed No | 34c | 56.82$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.32 | 109 | 56%61 W · 48 L | -2.2wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0e41…b875backed Yes | 71c | 56.34$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.34 | 47 | 53.2%25 W · 22 L | -1.9wins | -0.04per pick | 57cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdc86…7e77backed No | 25c | 47.82$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.13 | 78 | 48.7%38 W · 40 L | -2.7wins | -0.03per pick | 52cpaid | -13.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfb57…2ac4backed No | 34c | 45.97$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.63 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.34per pick | 34cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaf18…09a4backed No | 55c | 35.95$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.84 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.3wins | -0.07per pick | 47cpaid | -25.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x92dd…96d3backed Yes | 72c | 34.72$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.72 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.18per pick | 68cpaid | -30.6%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9b55…c327backed Yes | 68c | 32.78$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.49 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.32per pick | 68cpaid | +47.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xebd1…1e86backed Yes | 32c | 31.25$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.25 | 11 | 45.5%5 W · 6 L | +1.7wins | +0.15per pick | 30cpaid | +54.7%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xbfb0…466fbacked No | 33c | 30.77$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.31 | 37 | 40.5%15 W · 22 L | -1.4wins | -0.04per pick | 44cpaid | -17.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x66e8…c0e2backed No | 34c | 30.54$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.35 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | -1.6wins | -0.20per pick | 57cpaid | -48.6%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9cea…ffd2backed Yes | 66c | 30.3$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.3 | 17 | 88.2%15 W · 2 L | +3.8wins | +0.23per pick | 66cpaid | +35.6%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x5913…3bbebacked Yes | 71c | 21.12$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.12 | 107 | 61.7%66 W · 41 L | +7.0wins | +0.07per pick | 55cpaid | +10.5%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2c46…dac9backed Yes | 52c | 20$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.6 | 377 | 50.9%192 W · 185 L | +5.0wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Europa Conference League and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will NK Celje win on 2026-03-19?this page
- Will AEK vs. NK Celje end in a draw?No won
- Will AEK win on 2026-03-19?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.