Europa Conference League · resolved market
Will AEK win on 2026-03-19?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x9688bde125e62a37fedb24ebba461a885e2acf6b6a96d0e896e29a3604ebf029
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Europa Conference Leagueevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- Polymarket published no figure
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $41,088
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $41,088 — TailMyPicks’s own total, because the venue published none.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 74 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Europa Conference League is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Europa Conference League | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x4133…5e70backed No | 79c | 6,176$4,885 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,290.12 | 848 | 50.8%431 W · 417 L | +10.1wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x01c7…e995backed Yes | 15c | 2,297$346 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$346.29 | 769 | 41.9%322 W · 447 L | -8.2wins | -0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -24.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed No | 35c | 1,841$643 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,197.54 | 3,726 | 47%1,750 W · 1,976 L | +20.0wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -8.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd6a3…9489backed Yes | 13c | 1,321$172 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$171.74 | 522 | 43.9%229 W · 293 L | -2.7wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2fe2…9645backed Yes | 78c | 1,282$1,000 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,000 | 13 | 84.6%11 W · 2 L | +1.5wins | +0.12per pick | 73cpaid | +16.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Yes | 15c | 1,238$185 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$185.28 | 2,990 | 42.5%1,270 W · 1,720 L | +9.4wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | -11.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2e62…b22ebacked No | 23c | 1,086$250 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$836.6 | 31 | 32.3%10 W · 21 L | -1.3wins | -0.04per pick | 37cpaid | -15.6%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3c80…77b7backed Yes | 76c | 1,001$758 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$758.29 | 34 | 50%17 W · 17 L | -5.2wins | -0.15per pick | 65cpaid | -25.5%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x6ac5…4b6ebacked No | 22c | 681.7$150 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$531.72 | 382 | 47.1%180 W · 202 L | +8.9wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7a49…d9f5backed Yes | 26c | 594.51$152 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$151.89 | 276 | 44.9%124 W · 152 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 45cpaid | -16.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x507e…beaebacked Yes | 12c | 406.25$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.75 | 449 | 52.6%236 W · 213 L | +3.6wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -5.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaf0e…3197backed Yes | 77c | 400$308 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$308 | 70 | 67.1%47 W · 23 L | +4.2wins | +0.06per pick | 61cpaid | +12.1%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfa01…f0a7backed No | 24c | 386.19$93 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$293.5 | 200 | 56.5%113 W · 87 L | +7.4wins | +0.04per pick | 53cpaid | +5.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9c4c…bc84backed Yes | 78c | 384.62$300 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$300 | 11 | 36.4%4 W · 7 L | -3.4wins | -0.30per pick | 67cpaid | -47.1%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x31ca…35cebacked Yes | 77c | 324.68$250 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$250 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.9wins | -0.64per pick | 64cpaid | -100%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xe92e…0a8dbacked No | 22c | 279.98$62 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$218.39 | 24 | 25%6 W · 18 L | +1.6wins | +0.07per pick | 18cpaid | +18%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xee4c…8572backed Yes | 41c | 261.66$107 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$107.28 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.3wins | +0.14per pick | 36cpaid | +56.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb813…f0efbacked Yes | 77c | 259.74$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 15 | 73.3%11 W · 4 L | +0.5wins | +0.03per pick | 70cpaid | 0%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd01c…7f9dbacked Yes | 77c | 250$193 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$192.5 | 880 | 48.2%424 W · 456 L | +17.9wins | +0.02per pick | 46cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1f62…76f6backed Yes | 77c | 249.99$192 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$192.49 | 1,022 | 47.5%485 W · 537 L | -2.9wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -5.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe0c7…78d3backed Yes | 77c | 198.3$153 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$152.69 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.8wins | -0.77per pick | 77cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0aba…1910backed Yes | 77c | 194.38$150 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$150 | 21 | 81%17 W · 4 L | +1.6wins | +0.08per pick | 73cpaid | +10.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7d0c…a3b7backed Yes | 77c | 192.1$148 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$147.91 | 1,316 | 50.8%668 W · 648 L | +33.2wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | +4.7%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd983…d92dbacked Yes | 11c | 176.25$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 23 | 39.1%9 W · 14 L | +0.8wins | +0.03per pick | 36cpaid | +54.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x11a2…0532backed Yes | 74c | 155.41$115 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$115 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.8wins | -0.59per pick | 59cpaid | -100%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x7865…4af9backed No | 22c | 134.73$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$105.09 | 55 | 36.4%20 W · 35 L | +1.0wins | +0.02per pick | 34cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8b7e…6a9fbacked Yes | 77c | 129.87$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 135 | 52.6%71 W · 64 L | -6.9wins | -0.05per pick | 58cpaid | -11.9%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x26a6…ff11backed Yes | 77c | 129.87$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | -0.6wins | -0.09per pick | 76cpaid | -12.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x20ad…a7c6backed No | 27c | 128.98$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$93.55 | 218 | 35.8%78 W · 140 L | -4.6wins | -0.02per pick | 38cpaid | -18.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbfb0…466fbacked Yes | 16c | 127.88$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.77 | 37 | 40.5%15 W · 22 L | -1.4wins | -0.04per pick | 44cpaid | -17.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x44b6…98b4backed No | 56c | 113.6$64 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49.98 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | +0.2wins | +0.03per pick | 40cpaid | -10.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe051…9ec5backed No | 24c | 111.05$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$84.4 | 10 | 50%5 W · 5 L | +1.6wins | +0.16per pick | 34cpaid | +110.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xcb5b…f243backed Yes | 40c | 106.2$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.48 | 123 | 45.5%56 W · 67 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 45cpaid | -11.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd754…7857backed No | 56c | 100$56 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44 | 41 | 43.9%18 W · 23 L | -2.6wins | -0.06per pick | 50cpaid | -10.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7b2c…af48backed No | 23c | 100$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$77 | 333 | 49.8%166 W · 167 L | +3.1wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +3.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8fad…3ee4backed Yes | 47c | 100$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.8 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.3wins | +0.08per pick | 42cpaid | +17.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfcf3…f535backed Yes | 77c | 97.2$75 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$75.04 | 15 | 66.7%10 W · 5 L | +1.1wins | +0.07per pick | 59cpaid | +68.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8dec…60c2backed No | 49c | 87.5$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.67 | 39 | 56.4%22 W · 17 L | -1.5wins | -0.04per pick | 60cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf4d6…5d00backed Yes | 78c | 85.9$67 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$67 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | -0.5wins | -0.07per pick | 50cpaid | -13.5%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x981b…b8eabacked No | 24c | 83.33$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$63.33 | 51 | 47.1%24 W · 27 L | +1.1wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +8.2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa23d…5be1backed Yes | 77c | 81.62$63 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$62.85 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.8wins | -0.77per pick | 77cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa4ba…c5d8backed No | 23c | 79.99$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$61.59 | 115 | 62.6%72 W · 43 L | +3.8wins | +0.03per pick | 59cpaid | +2.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xed61…9aa3backed No | 71c | 76$54 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.92 | 153 | 76.5%117 W · 36 L | +37.4wins | +0.24per pick | 52cpaid | +61.3%equal weight | 73+0.21 edge/pick |
| 0x576c…f218backed Yes | 77c | 75.46$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58.1 | 93 | 54.8%51 W · 42 L | -5.5wins | -0.06per pick | 61cpaid | +52.4%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc4db…7e0cbacked No | 19c | 66.26$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$53.67 | 184 | 44.6%82 W · 102 L | +7.0wins | +0.04per pick | 41cpaid | +7.9%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5944…bd5bbacked Yes | 47c | 63.83$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 48 | 52.1%25 W · 23 L | +1.3wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5460…15b5backed Yes | 24c | 63.79$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.24per pick | 24cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf39a…fe47backed No | 33c | 63.01$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.09 | 117 | 49.6%58 W · 59 L | -3.0wins | -0.03per pick | 52cpaid | -16.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd37a…2358backed No | 21c | 61.34$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48.15 | 251 | 57%143 W · 108 L | +7.0wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | +14.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc291…5d74backed No | 22c | 60.5$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47.19 | 2,167 | 37.6%815 W · 1,352 L | +5.7wins | 0.00per pick | 37cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0484…4830backed Yes | 77c | 53.15$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.14 | 15 | 80%12 W · 3 L | +2.5wins | +0.16per pick | 64cpaid | +31.2%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x94a5…4eb8backed Yes | 77c | 50$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.5 | 14 | 50%7 W · 7 L | +0.2wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +8.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3abf…b143backed No | 28c | 42.91$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31 | 179 | 56.4%101 W · 78 L | +13.4wins | +0.07per pick | 49cpaid | +16.1%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xb9d2…0cbdbacked Yes | 77c | 42.09$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.41 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | -0.6wins | -0.09per pick | 59cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5d73…9d35backed Yes | 77c | 40$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.8 | 12 | 50%6 W · 6 L | -0.9wins | -0.07per pick | 57cpaid | -21%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffd…7821backed Yes | 31c | 35$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.01 | 85 | 50.6%43 W · 42 L | -2.7wins | -0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa578…6702backed Yes | 77c | 35$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.98 | 77 | 50.6%39 W · 38 L | +0.8wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +5.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x027a…f61dbacked Yes | 77c | 33.77$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.18per pick | 68cpaid | -15.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xce9e…10bebacked Yes | 77c | 32.47$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 51 | 49%25 W · 26 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3e3d…bbfabacked Yes | 47c | 31.28$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.7 | 13 | 46.2%6 W · 7 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -16.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x13a1…d9bcbacked No | 77c | 29$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.67 | 100 | 61%61 W · 39 L | +8.3wins | +0.08per pick | 53cpaid | +10.2%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xd713…4fcebacked Yes | 72c | 27.78$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.25per pick | 75cpaid | -35.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbee0…7dffbacked Yes | 44c | 27.64$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.16 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | +0.7wins | +0.14per pick | 26cpaid | +79.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xca53…195fbacked Yes | 77c | 25.97$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 27 | 66.7%18 W · 9 L | +1.6wins | +0.06per pick | 61cpaid | +9.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0e41…b875backed Yes | 77c | 25.97$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 47 | 53.2%25 W · 22 L | -1.9wins | -0.04per pick | 57cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb887…649dbacked Yes | 77c | 23.05$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.75 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 77cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xefde…6505backed Yes | 77c | 21.82$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.8 | 555 | 45.8%254 W · 301 L | -12.1wins | -0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x14af…887ebacked Yes | 77c | 20$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.4 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | -0.7wins | -0.10per pick | 67cpaid | -21.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf68f…3d74backed Yes | 79c | 18.99$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.8wins | -0.79per pick | 79cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe9da…ed70backed Yes | 77c | 18.2$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.01 | 56 | 55.4%31 W · 25 L | -3.3wins | -0.06per pick | 61cpaid | -7.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5cea…fb1abacked Yes | 77c | 16.88$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.8wins | -0.77per pick | 77cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa42b…45d2backed Yes | 77c | 16$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.32 | 29 | 41.4%12 W · 17 L | -6.0wins | -0.21per pick | 62cpaid | -31.1%equal weight | 38-0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x9095…89bcbacked Yes | 77c | 15.06$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.6 | 13 | 30.8%4 W · 9 L | -3.1wins | -0.24per pick | 55cpaid | -49.4%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xfacd…d470backed Yes | 75c | 15$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.25 | 23 | 73.9%17 W · 6 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 73cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Europa Conference League and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will AEK win on 2026-03-19?this page
- Will AEK vs. NK Celje end in a draw?No won
- Will NK Celje win on 2026-03-19?Yes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.