Tennis · resolved market
Set Handicap: Ruud (-1.5) vs Fokina (+1.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x99720212d8eb3983e5ffd5f6493f0a4f0a8872522ca68fdddfab65f586ea8c06
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Ruudof Ruud, Fokina
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Tennisevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $15,144
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $19,905
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $15,144 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 42 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Tennis is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Tennis | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x0ebb…cb1abacked Fokina | 55c | 3,031$1,654 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,653.65 | 300 | 56.7%170 W · 130 L | +0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 57cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9c76…c926backed Ruud | 47c | 2,546$1,194 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,351.71 | 4,076 | 39.7%1,620 W · 2,456 L | +93.7wins | +0.02per pick | 37cpaid | +7.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1467…4372backed Fokina | 52c | 2,500$1,300 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,299.99 | 80 | 60%48 W · 32 L | +5.1wins | +0.06per pick | 54cpaid | +10.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf677…0e56backed Ruud | 49c | 1,868$911 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$957.2 | 283 | 50.5%143 W · 140 L | +4.7wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +3.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc905…850bbacked Fokina | 53c | 916.79$486 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$485.9 | 357 | 55.5%198 W · 159 L | +0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | 0%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc46d…6418backed Fokina | 55c | 770.18$421 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$421.11 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.55per pick | 55cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1e71…eba7backed Ruud | 48c | 638.07$306 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$331.8 | 122 | 35.2%43 W · 79 L | -3.2wins | -0.03per pick | 38cpaid | -13.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x041b…d3ebbacked Ruud | 48c | 625.68$300 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$325.36 | 157 | 52.2%82 W · 75 L | -6.9wins | -0.04per pick | 57cpaid | -0.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa3d3…f2bcbacked Ruud | 47c | 500$235 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$265 | 224 | 49.6%111 W · 113 L | +17.3wins | +0.08per pick | 42cpaid | +20.2%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xc4db…7e0cbacked Ruud | 44c | 500$220 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$280 | 3,871 | 35%1,353 W · 2,518 L | +92.5wins | +0.02per pick | 33cpaid | +8.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xad88…3c1ebacked Ruud | 47c | 428.41$201 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$227.06 | 247 | 47.4%117 W · 130 L | -3.8wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +4.2%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8510…aa8fbacked Fokina | 53c | 369.28$196 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$195.72 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -1.5wins | -0.37per pick | 37cpaid | -100%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf9ef…20ebbacked Ruud | 49c | 299.99$147 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$153 | 1,245 | 51.9%646 W · 599 L | +9.3wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5628…abbcbacked Fokina | 52c | 260.59$136 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$136.02 | 2,229 | 45%1,002 W · 1,227 L | +3.4wins | 0.00per pick | 45cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf6ee…0e41backed Fokina | 50c | 200$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 364 | 35.2%128 W · 236 L | +8.7wins | +0.02per pick | 33cpaid | +5.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x87e8…5e6ebacked Fokina | 53c | 199.99$106 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$105.99 | 419 | 55.8%234 W · 185 L | -0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 56cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2ca6…6a20backed Fokina | 53c | 183.36$97 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$97.18 | 325 | 54.2%176 W · 149 L | +7.4wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x66b1…340fbacked Ruud | 48c | 154.97$74 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$81.17 | 1,158 | 44.4%514 W · 644 L | +2.3wins | 0.00per pick | 44cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe658…2c42backed Ruud | 47c | 154.93$73 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$82.21 | 398 | 42.2%168 W · 230 L | +10.7wins | +0.03per pick | 40cpaid | +10.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd2ca…790cbacked Ruud | 50c | 154.64$77 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$77.71 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -1.3wins | -0.27per pick | 47cpaid | -59.8%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xce7a…fef0backed Ruud | 51c | 113.07$57 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$55.89 | 17 | 52.9%9 W · 8 L | +1.4wins | +0.08per pick | 45cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2095…8521backed Ruud | 46c | 113$53 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$60.46 | 176 | 58.5%103 W · 73 L | +12.1wins | +0.07per pick | 52cpaid | +17%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x5bda…17a8backed Fokina | 52c | 99.98$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.99 | 1,151 | 48.7%560 W · 591 L | +8.8wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0045…9007backed Fokina | 53c | 97.18$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.51 | 265 | 48.7%129 W · 136 L | -2.8wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2ce5…a07fbacked Fokina | 51c | 97.06$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.5 | 418 | 50%209 W · 209 L | +6.0wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +5.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4e33…c3eebacked Fokina | 51c | 97.06$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.5 | 25 | 52%13 W · 12 L | +1.8wins | +0.07per pick | 45cpaid | +23.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5d6f…8206backed Fokina | 54c | 88.62$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.85 | 45 | 57.8%26 W · 19 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 58cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5f43…3a74backed Ruud | 47c | 80$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.4 | 387 | 41.1%159 W · 228 L | +2.2wins | +0.01per pick | 41cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2ff4…d735backed Ruud | 32c | 78$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$53.04 | 8 | 75%6 W · 2 L | +4.2wins | +0.52per pick | 23cpaid | +259.9%equal weight | 64+0.13 edge/pick |
| 0x5e30…acbfbacked Fokina | 49c | 77.45$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.95 | 7,724 | 47.8%3,691 W · 4,033 L | +41.2wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe64b…9cf1backed Fokina | 51c | 76.13$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.82 | 70 | 47.1%33 W · 37 L | +2.3wins | +0.03per pick | 44cpaid | +39.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8a3d…316cbacked Ruud | 47c | 64$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.92 | 1,955 | 48%939 W · 1,016 L | +16.0wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x99f7…1a59backed Ruud | 31c | 52.22$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.03 | 694 | 38%264 W · 430 L | +21.0wins | +0.03per pick | 35cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa23c…ae92backed Ruud | 47c | 51.5$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.3 | 179 | 59.8%107 W · 72 L | +1.5wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4738…4687backed Ruud | 49c | 48.47$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.72 | 373 | 51.2%191 W · 182 L | -3.2wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x56d2…0b3bbacked Ruud | 48c | 40.49$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.05 | 22 | 40.9%9 W · 13 L | -2.5wins | -0.11per pick | 52cpaid | -22.5%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3a72…0a38backed Ruud | 31c | 40$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.6 | 452 | 35.8%162 W · 290 L | +6.8wins | +0.02per pick | 34cpaid | -5.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x00d4…4c46backed Ruud | 31c | 40$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.6 | 482 | 35.9%173 W · 309 L | +7.0wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | -8.8%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1dd2…9e07backed Fokina | 55c | 26.41$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.53 | 2,418 | 51.7%1,249 W · 1,169 L | +10.3wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcfde…8ad8backed Fokina | 51c | 20.93$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.67 | 50 | 52%26 W · 24 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | +5.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0c99…0c88backed Fokina | 53c | 20$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.6 | 9,286 | 44.3%4,110 W · 5,176 L | -245.7wins | -0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -12.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfe1e…7ee3backed Fokina | 54c | 19.45$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.5 | 30 | 50%15 W · 15 L | -4.0wins | -0.13per pick | 63cpaid | -22.1%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Tennis and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Set Handicap: Ruud (-1.5) vs Fokina (+1.5)this page
- Alejandro Davidovich Fokina vs. Casper Ruud: Total Sets O/U 2.5Under 2.5 won
- Fokina vs. Ruud: Match O/U 21.5Under won
- Fokina vs. Ruud: Match O/U 22.5Under won
- Madrid Open: Alejandro Davidovich Fokina vs Casper RuudCasper Ruud won
- Set 1 Winner: Fokina vs RuudRuud won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.